And we could have easily won by 14 more against the BunniesQuote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
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And we could have easily won by 14 more against the BunniesQuote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
no, the sample size just got much stronger is all. If it were fully in effect, the sum of the residuals should be 0, when it is actually about +17.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
If we beat UNI and sdsu/kstate take care of business, there is a chance to crack the BCS ratings
also on dennis dodd watch, ndsu is back up to 19
Nope. I think Sagarin and Massey are the only two of the BCS computer rankings that include specific FCS teams. The others ignore FCS entirely or use FCS "groups". I suspect even the Sagarin and Massey rankings provided to the BCS don't include FCS teams. I was thinking the same as you, so I went to all the BCS computer ranking sites last night.Quote:
Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan
Sagarin - includes FCS
Anderson & Hester - no FCS
Billingsley - no FCS
Colley - FCS groups
Massey - includes FCS
Wolfe - might include FCS, not released yet (Oct 13)
The sum of the residuals for an individual team is hardly ever zero whether or not the initial ratings are still being used. The sum of the residuals across all 252 teams should be zero.Quote:
Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan
sorry that should have read 'close to' 0, and i could have sworn i had written it that way. If you unilaterally raise NDSU's rating, the residual for the field would decrease.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
disappointing that it doesn't look like we can crack to top-25
Based on Sagarin's numbers (4.24 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
UNI 73.9% (-0.5 percentage points from last week)
Mo St 97.1% (+0.1)
S Ill 82.0% (+16.7)
Ind St 92.9% (+16.4)
Ill St 99.7% (+2.5)
YSU 82.2% (+10.2)
USD 99.4% (+0.6)
The UNI number is down despite our Sagarin predictor improving somewhat more than UNI because the value of home field moved almost a full point down to 4.24 (and much closer to the long-term number of approximately 3).
11-0 44.5% (+29.2)
10-1 40.3% (+5.6)
9-2 13.2% (-18.3)
8-3 1.9% (-12.6)
7-4 0.1% (-3.4)
6-5 0.003% (-0.4)
5-6 0.00002%
4-7 0.00000003%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
CUSA 60.45 (-0.98 from last week)
MAC 59.79 (-0.47)
Sn Blt 59.12 (+1.24)
MVFC 57.16 (-1.69)
NDSU's 76.91 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (+2 from last week)
7th in the ACC (+2)
6th in the Big Ten (+4)
6th in the Big 12 (+2)
1st in Conference USA (+1)
1st in the MAC (=)
3rd in the MWC (=)
9th in the PAC 12 (+2)
10th in the SEC (+4)
1st in the Sun Belt (=)
Who in the Sun Belt played a big game to improve their conference as a whole? Usually, now it's conference games so anything but the top 5-6 start to decrease.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I didn't know this until I looked up the results, but Sun Belt conference play hasn't started yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Texas State was a 9.5 point dog to Wyoming (Mtn West) and won by 21. Improved their Sag 6.57.
South Alabama was a 26 point dog to Tennessee (SEC) and lost by 7. Improved their Sag 4.92.
Those were the two big drivers. There were some that went the other way and some smaller increases as well, but these were the big positive movers in the Sun Belt.
Makes sense. I tried to figure it out, but kept going crazy looking at the different columns. I'll figure it out eventuallyQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Unless you're hanging onto the whole data set from week to week it'd be pretty tough.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Nah, I was just trying to approximate who did better using this week's data. Might have been why I was driving myself crazy :)Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
40 is a realistic number.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
I believe 40 is a bit conservative. I believe that we'll be higher in the Sagarin predictor metric by the end of the year. I look at a lot of the teams in the 25-40 range and have a hard time believing that we would lose more games than win against them.Quote:
Originally Posted by LITTLEGUYSINGREEN
Sooooooo close to getting another top 50 win. stupid UNI has to be 51
Quote:
Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10
they'll be top 50 when they run the table and get to the playoffs
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My system's first rankings are out. I think everyone will be pleased with where the Bison are situated. The entire FCS is particularly strong in this first release. I don't expect them to stay high forever, as they would need more FBS wins to maintain the juice they gained in week 1. And there aren't a whole lot of those left. The Ivy league is still a stickler. They only stated playing three weeks ago, so the links with those teams are quite weak, and can cause some anomalies. The accuracy will only improve as more games are played.
http://purecfr.com/college-football-...s-2013-week-6/
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Am i the only one who thinks UNI will have a tough time going forward? Remember Ytown last year?
UNI just lost a bunch of talent to injury on an already thin defense. I think they have at least 1 more loss.
Quote:
Originally Posted by X-Factor
SDSU isn't as good as the preseason rankings showed - maybe UN_s comeback wasn't as much of an abnormality as I thought. I don't expect UNI to have the same drop off, but injuries may say otherwise. Who are they playing the next few weeks?
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UNI has a huge game next week at home vs SIU.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Not too many changes this week. KState goes back over NDSU by a couple slots. NDSU is unchanged in rankings; UNI moves up the overall list. Conferences stay the same. Very little change in the top-25 makeup. YSU moves up, the Big Sky schools shift around. Top 4 remain unchanged. Still think last week was the shift to well-connected. Either that, or everyone did what they were supposed to do on Saturday. Sagarin says double digit wins from here on out. I may have to add the OVC to my conference list at some point; the gap between the Big Sky and Southern is about three times larger than the gap between the Southern and Ohio Valley. Scratch that last part, OVC moves ahead of SoCon. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
40 North Dakota State 77.27
38 Kansas State 77.67 -4.68 3.00 7.68
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
227 Delaware State 33.90 47.65 51.00 3.35
129 South Dakota State 57.28 15.71 20.00 4.29
51 Northern Iowa 74.13 7.42 1.00 -6.42
150 Missouri State 53.33 28.22
108 Southern Illinois 60.54 12.45
156 Indiana State 52.02 20.97
172 Illinois State 48.11 33.44
103 Youngstown State 61.46 11.53
176 South Dakota 47.32 34.23
167 Western Illinois 48.67
Total Diff: 8.90
Home 4.28
Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS ConferencesCode:1 40 North Dakota State
2 51 Northern Iowa
3 66 Eastern Illinois
4 78 Towson
5 84 McNeese State
6 85 Montana State
7 86 Villanova
8 87 Montana
9 95 Eastern Washington
10 98 William & Mary
11 102 Maine
12 103 Youngstown State
13 106 Georgia Southern
14 108 Southern Illinois
15 109 Sam Houston State
16 111 SE Louisiana
17 112 Old Dominion
18 116 Chattanooga
19 118 Samford
20 122 Richmond
21 125 Coastal Carolina
22 127 Harvard
23 129 South Dakota State
24 131 Portland State
25 133 Bethune-Cookman
Code:1. MVFC 56.76
2. Colonial 55.91
3. Southland 53.08
4. Big Sky 51.63
5. Ohio Valley 50.20
6. Southern 50.18
Wasn't the weather/field conditions extremely shitty for that game? Do I need to remind anyone of 'that" one game?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Quote:
Originally Posted by EndZoneQB
not sure what you are trying to get at. In the UN_ game, they abandoned what got them the lead. Against Nebraska, they pulled their guys because they didn't want to face injuries. Against us, they didn't even try to run the ball with their "all-world" running back. I don't know what happened yesterday but that should have been their game.
Looks to me coaching is preventing them from winning games. They have talent on that roster, just haven't seen it come together (sound familiar?)
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It is interesting that some of the SDSU fans have seen the light and realize their playing surface is garbage and are now demanding field turf.
Delta State ring a bell?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
I don't fully understand how sagarin works but K-state passing us when they do nothing but lose and we do nothing but win seems a bit ridiculous. I would better understand it if they were winning but they're not. How can strength of schedule be an accurate borometer if you lose? How do they know the Bison wouldnt beat the teams they lose to? Meanwhile we just beat a team that beat a Big 12 team that will very possibly beat K-State. Whatever
A very simplistic explanation is to look how a team performs compared to how they were expected to perform. Our rating and UNI's predicted about a 9 point NDSU win. Since we only won by 1 point, we weren't going to improve our ranking; maybe slip a tiny bit. On the other hand, I doubt KState was predicted to only lose by 4 points(I didn't look at last week's rankings to that degree, so I can't be certain). Since KState outperformed the expectation, they were likely to move up. Also realize that 77.69 and 77.27 are very, very close, and it doesn't take much to shift a team a spot or four.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
The complete explanation is a whole lot more complicated and would require knowledge of the particulars of Sagarin's computer model. I don't have that knowledge or the understanding to comprehend it if I did. Sorry.
Sagarin's models are all based on the concepts from the Elo system. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_systemQuote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
Any system that uses a predictive model uses bits and pieces of it, even mine.
I guess after years of watching football I prefer my gut hunch over point spread but that isn't scientific and definitely can't be systemized. I guess that is one of the great things about football. There are so many variables in a given game from play books, to matchups, to injuries, to weather, to training, to the luck of the bounce. Best sport in the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
sagarin is still several week from being well connected, it usually isn't until the first BCS standings are announced
The Massey Ratings has us at #24 in the nation.
Sounds like a recipe for financial freedom. Go for it!Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
Based on Sagarin's numbers (4.28 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Mo St 98.1% (+1.0 percentage points from last week)
S Ill 82.2% (+0.2)
Ind St 93.9% (+1.0)
Ill St 99.6% (-0.1)
YSU 80.3% (-1.9)
USD 99.4% (=0.0)
11-0 60.1% (+16.6)
10-1 33.5% (-6.8)
9-2 6.0% (-7.2)
8-3 0.4% (-1.5)
7-4 0.01% (-0.1)
6-5 0.0001%
5-6 0.0000001%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
CUSA 59.96 (-0.49 from last week)
MAC 59.88 (+0.09)
Sn Blt 58.91 (-0.21)
MVFC 56.76 (-0.40)
NDSU's 77.27 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (+1)
7th in the Big Ten (-1)
7th in the Big 12 (-1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
9th in the PAC 12 (=0)
9th in the SEC (+1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
Right because football has so incredibly much in common with my financesQuote:
Originally Posted by mnriverbison
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
Yeah, no one ever bets on football...
Oops right...and I thought my hair was brownQuote:
Originally Posted by gotts