Sagarin says

[Mayville Bison]

Am i the only one who thinks UNI will have a tough time going forward? Remember Ytown last year?
UNI just lost a bunch of talent to injury on an already thin defense. I think they have at least 1 more loss.

SDSU isn't as good as the preseason rankings showed - maybe UN_s comeback wasn't as much of an abnormality as I thought. I don't expect UNI to have the same drop off, but injuries may say otherwise. Who are they playing the next few weeks?





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[NDSUstudent]

SDSU isn't as good as the preseason rankings showed - maybe UN_s comeback wasn't as much of an abnormality as I thought. I don't expect UNI to have the same drop off, but injuries may say otherwise. Who are they playing the next few weeks?

UNI has a huge game next week at home vs SIU.

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UNI has a huge game next week at home vs SIU.

[Hammersmith]

Not too many changes this week. KState goes back over NDSU by a couple slots. NDSU is unchanged in rankings; UNI moves up the overall list. Conferences stay the same. Very little change in the top-25 makeup. YSU moves up, the Big Sky schools shift around. Top 4 remain unchanged. Still think last week was the shift to well-connected. Either that, or everyone did what they were supposed to do on Saturday. Sagarin says double digit wins from here on out. I may have to add the OVC to my conference list at some point; the gap between the Big Sky and Southern is about three times larger than the gap between the Southern and Ohio Valley. Scratch that last part, OVC moves ahead of SoCon. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 40	North Dakota State	77.27					
 38	Kansas State		77.67	   -4.68       3.00	 7.68		
 NA	Ferris State		   NA	      NA      46.00	   NA		
227	Delaware State		33.90	   47.65      51.00	 3.35		
129	South Dakota State	57.28	   15.71      20.00	 4.29		
 51	Northern Iowa		74.13	    7.42       1.00	-6.42		
150	Missouri State		53.33	   28.22				
108	Southern Illinois	60.54	   12.45				
156	Indiana State		52.02	   20.97				
172	Illinois State		48.11	   33.44				
103	Youngstown State	61.46	   11.53				
176	South Dakota		47.32	   34.23				
							
167	Western Illinois	48.67					
						Total Diff:	 8.90
	Home			 4.28

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

 1   40  North Dakota State
 2   51  Northern Iowa
 3   66  Eastern Illinois
 4   78  Towson
 5   84  McNeese State
 6   85  Montana State
 7   86  Villanova
 8   87  Montana
 9   95  Eastern Washington
10   98  William & Mary
11  102  Maine
12  103  Youngstown State
13  106  Georgia Southern
14  108  Southern Illinois
15  109  Sam Houston State
16  111  SE Louisiana
17  112  Old Dominion
18  116  Chattanooga
19  118  Samford
20  122  Richmond
21  125  Coastal Carolina
22  127  Harvard
23  129  South Dakota State
24  131  Portland State
25  133  Bethune-Cookman

Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	56.76
2.  Colonial	55.91
3.  Southland	53.08
4.  Big Sky	51.63
5.  Ohio Valley 50.20
6.  Southern	50.18

[EndZoneQB]

SDSU isn't as good as the preseason rankings showed - maybe UN_s comeback wasn't as much of an abnormality as I thought. I don't expect UNI to have the same drop off, but injuries may say otherwise. Who are they playing the next few weeks?





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Wasn't the weather/field conditions extremely shitty for that game? Do I need to remind anyone of 'that" one game?

[Mayville Bison]

Wasn't the weather/field conditions extremely shitty for that game? Do I need to remind anyone of 'that" one game?

not sure what you are trying to get at. In the UN_ game, they abandoned what got them the lead. Against Nebraska, they pulled their guys because they didn't want to face injuries. Against us, they didn't even try to run the ball with their "all-world" running back. I don't know what happened yesterday but that should have been their game.

Looks to me coaching is preventing them from winning games. They have talent on that roster, just haven't seen it come together (sound familiar?)





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[NDSUstudent]

It is interesting that some of the SDSU fans have seen the light and realize their playing surface is garbage and are now demanding field turf.

[EndZoneQB]

not sure what you are trying to get at. In the UN_ game, they abandoned what got them the lead. Against Nebraska, they pulled their guys because they didn't want to face injuries. Against us, they didn't even try to run the ball with their "all-world" running back. I don't know what happened yesterday but that should have been their game.

Looks to me coaching is preventing them from winning games. They have talent on that roster, just haven't seen it come together (sound familiar?)





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Delta State ring a bell?

[ZHerd]

I don't fully understand how sagarin works but K-state passing us when they do nothing but lose and we do nothing but win seems a bit ridiculous. I would better understand it if they were winning but they're not. How can strength of schedule be an accurate borometer if you lose? How do they know the Bison wouldnt beat the teams they lose to? Meanwhile we just beat a team that beat a Big 12 team that will very possibly beat K-State. Whatever

[Hammersmith]

I don't fully understand how sagarin works but K-state passing us when they do nothing but lose and we do nothing but win seems a bit ridiculous. I would better understand it if they were winning but they're not. How can strength of schedule be an accurate borometer if you lose? How do they know the Bison wouldnt beat the teams they lose to? Meanwhile we just beat a team that beat a Big 12 team that will very possibly beat K-State. Whatever

A very simplistic explanation is to look how a team performs compared to how they were expected to perform. Our rating and UNI's predicted about a 9 point NDSU win. Since we only won by 1 point, we weren't going to improve our ranking; maybe slip a tiny bit. On the other hand, I doubt KState was predicted to only lose by 4 points(I didn't look at last week's rankings to that degree, so I can't be certain). Since KState outperformed the expectation, they were likely to move up. Also realize that 77.69 and 77.27 are very, very close, and it doesn't take much to shift a team a spot or four.

The complete explanation is a whole lot more complicated and would require knowledge of the particulars of Sagarin's computer model. I don't have that knowledge or the understanding to comprehend it if I did. Sorry.

[gumby013]

I don't fully understand how sagarin works but K-state passing us when they do nothing but lose and we do nothing but win seems a bit ridiculous. I would better understand it if they were winning but they're not. How can strength of schedule be an accurate borometer if you lose? How do they know the Bison wouldnt beat the teams they lose to? Meanwhile we just beat a team that beat a Big 12 team that will very possibly beat K-State. Whatever

Sagarin's models are all based on the concepts from the Elo system. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

Any system that uses a predictive model uses bits and pieces of it, even mine.