Sagarin says

[ZHerd]

A very simplistic explanation is to look how a team performs compared to how they were expected to perform. Our rating and UNI's predicted about a 9 point NDSU win. Since we only won by 1 point, we weren't going to improve our ranking; maybe slip a tiny bit. On the other hand, I doubt KState was predicted to only lose by 4 points(I didn't look at last week's rankings to that degree, so I can't be certain). Since KState outperformed the expectation, they were likely to move up. Also realize that 77.69 and 77.27 are very, very close, and it doesn't take much to shift a team a spot or four.

The complete explanation is a whole lot more complicated and would require knowledge of the particulars of Sagarin's computer model. I don't have that knowledge or the understanding to comprehend it if I did. Sorry.

I guess after years of watching football I prefer my gut hunch over point spread but that isn't scientific and definitely can't be systemized. I guess that is one of the great things about football. There are so many variables in a given game from play books, to matchups, to injuries, to weather, to training, to the luck of the bounce. Best sport in the world.

[reformedUNDfan]

sagarin is still several week from being well connected, it usually isn't until the first BCS standings are announced

[devin45k]

The Massey Ratings has us at #24 in the nation.

[mnriverbison]

I guess after years of watching football I prefer my gut hunch over point spread but that isn't scientific and definitely can't be systemized. I guess that is one of the great things about football. There are so many variables in a given game from play books, to matchups, to injuries, to weather, to training, to the luck of the bounce. Best sport in the world.

Sounds like a recipe for financial freedom. Go for it!

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (4.28 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Mo St 98.1% (+1.0 percentage points from last week)
S Ill 82.2% (+0.2)
Ind St 93.9% (+1.0)
Ill St 99.6% (-0.1)
YSU 80.3% (-1.9)
USD 99.4% (=0.0)



11-0 60.1% (+16.6)
10-1 33.5% (-6.8)
9-2 6.0% (-7.2)
8-3 0.4% (-1.5)
7-4 0.01% (-0.1)
6-5 0.0001%
5-6 0.0000001%


Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[bisonaudit]

CUSA 59.96 (-0.49 from last week)
MAC 59.88 (+0.09)
Sn Blt 58.91 (-0.21)
MVFC 56.76 (-0.40)

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 77.27 would rank:

3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (+1)
7th in the Big Ten (-1)
7th in the Big 12 (-1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
9th in the PAC 12 (=0)
9th in the SEC (+1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)

[ZHerd]

Sounds like a recipe for financial freedom. Go for it!

Right because football has so incredibly much in common with my finances

[gotts]

Right because football has so incredibly much in common with my finances

Yeah, no one ever bets on football...

[ZHerd]

Yeah, no one ever bets on football...

Oops right...and I thought my hair was brown