Sagarin says

[westnodak93bison]

NDSU currently ranked #29 by Sagarin! That is ahead of 6 teams in the SEC and Pac 12 and on top of the B1G Legends division. It would also put us at the top of a few non-AQ conferences.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...13/conference/

And we could have easily won by 14 more against the Bunnies

[reformedUNDfan]

It feels like this was the week where last year's results stopped being factored in. Sagarin used to include a line about the results being either well-connected or not, but that line has been missing this year. By the way things jumped around this week, I think the transition just happened.

no, the sample size just got much stronger is all. If it were fully in effect, the sum of the residuals should be 0, when it is actually about +17.


If we beat UNI and sdsu/kstate take care of business, there is a chance to crack the BCS ratings

[reformedUNDfan]

also on dennis dodd watch, ndsu is back up to 19

[Hammersmith]

no, the sample size just got much stronger is all. If it were fully in effect, the sum of the residuals should be 0, when it is actually about +17.


If we beat UNI and sdsu/kstate take care of business, there is a chance to crack the BCS ratings

Nope. I think Sagarin and Massey are the only two of the BCS computer rankings that include specific FCS teams. The others ignore FCS entirely or use FCS "groups". I suspect even the Sagarin and Massey rankings provided to the BCS don't include FCS teams. I was thinking the same as you, so I went to all the BCS computer ranking sites last night.

Sagarin - includes FCS
Anderson & Hester - no FCS
Billingsley - no FCS
Colley - FCS groups
Massey - includes FCS
Wolfe - might include FCS, not released yet (Oct 13)

[bisonaudit]

no, the sample size just got much stronger is all. If it were fully in effect, the sum of the residuals should be 0, when it is actually about +17.


If we beat UNI and sdsu/kstate take care of business, there is a chance to crack the BCS ratings

The sum of the residuals for an individual team is hardly ever zero whether or not the initial ratings are still being used. The sum of the residuals across all 252 teams should be zero.

[reformedUNDfan]

The sum of the residuals for an individual team is hardly ever zero whether or not the initial ratings are still being used. The sum of the residuals across all 252 teams should be zero.

sorry that should have read 'close to' 0, and i could have sworn i had written it that way. If you unilaterally raise NDSU's rating, the residual for the field would decrease.

disappointing that it doesn't look like we can crack to top-25

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (4.24 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

UNI 73.9% (-0.5 percentage points from last week)
Mo St 97.1% (+0.1)
S Ill 82.0% (+16.7)
Ind St 92.9% (+16.4)
Ill St 99.7% (+2.5)
YSU 82.2% (+10.2)
USD 99.4% (+0.6)

The UNI number is down despite our Sagarin predictor improving somewhat more than UNI because the value of home field moved almost a full point down to 4.24 (and much closer to the long-term number of approximately 3).

11-0 44.5% (+29.2)
10-1 40.3% (+5.6)
9-2 13.2% (-18.3)
8-3 1.9% (-12.6)
7-4 0.1% (-3.4)
6-5 0.003% (-0.4)
5-6 0.00002%
4-7 0.00000003%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[bisonaudit]

CUSA 60.45 (-0.98 from last week)
MAC 59.79 (-0.47)
Sn Blt 59.12 (+1.24)
MVFC 57.16 (-1.69)

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 76.91 would rank:

3rd in the American Athletic (+2 from last week)
7th in the ACC (+2)
6th in the Big Ten (+4)
6th in the Big 12 (+2)
1st in Conference USA (+1)
1st in the MAC (=)
3rd in the MWC (=)
9th in the PAC 12 (+2)
10th in the SEC (+4)
1st in the Sun Belt (=)

[Mayville Bison]

CUSA 60.45 (-0.98 from last week)
MAC 59.79 (-0.47)
Sn Blt 59.12 (+1.24)
MVFC 57.16 (-1.69)

Who in the Sun Belt played a big game to improve their conference as a whole? Usually, now it's conference games so anything but the top 5-6 start to decrease.