This is the only thing I dont like about the playoffs is they dont match up teams like a true playoff should. There should be no regionalization considering the NCAA gets 75% of the estimated game receipts.Quote:
Originally Posted by td577
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This is the only thing I dont like about the playoffs is they dont match up teams like a true playoff should. There should be no regionalization considering the NCAA gets 75% of the estimated game receipts.Quote:
Originally Posted by td577
I kind of see what you are saying but kind of don't. For playoff games the home team should have no trouble selling out (if they don't...their problem) and the visitor sections are small to begin with so how much does it really matter if travel is easier or difficult? Wouldn't a fair playoff setup be better?Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
As I understand it, the NCAA pays for all team travel expenses. So, chartering a jet, food, lodging for 60+ people, etc. That can't be cheap.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
The question is are you going to have a true play off(which is the purpose of this exercise) or are you more worried about the expenses and schleping kids on a bus to play a team they have already played that they shouldnt be playing?Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
i agree with your position completely. Unfortunately the selection committee is set up to reward mediocre teams from weak conferences and the NCAA cares less about the objective quality of the tournament than they do about the cash.Quote:
Originally Posted by 56BISON73
Since when is the NCAA supposed to worry about making money? Shouldn't it be about fairness? You know they dont want teams from the same conference meeting in the semis or god forbid the final like NDSU vs. USD back in the 80s.
I hear ya, PL. I'm more of a fan of a 16 team field that is all seeded. But some teams and fans are left wishing there was a bigger field to show their stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by 56BISON73
I'm not sure if more games generate more revenue than liability.
As far as revenue that is all dependent on the venue and the fan base. The NCAA gets about 500,000K from NDSU a playoff game.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
500,000K? holy shit! you could damn near build a new dome for that kind of coin!Quote:
Originally Posted by 56BISON73
:D
I see you're just getting familiar with the NCAA :)Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
The highest attended non-NDSU playoff game last year during the quarters and semi's was around 4000 people. Like it or not that is a death sentence for non-regionalization of playoff games.
As of 2010, the NCAA provided transportation for 130 people. http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...llHandbook.pdfQuote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Qtrs...Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
Towson at Eastern Illinois - 3,850
Jacksonville at E. Washington - 4,277
UNH at SE Louisiana - 5,586
Semi's
Towson at E. Washington - 6,209
Well, the good news is that this has to basically guarantee NDSU a #1 or #2 seed since the argument for it is clear, plus the NCAA actually makes money on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by missingnumber7
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Youngstown State 93.5% (+2.8% from last week)
11-1 93.5% (+15.0% from last week)
10-2 6.5% (-13.8%)
Sports Network Playoff Bracket: (I may look at some of the others in the Bracketology thread later in the week if time permits)
I assumed that the higher Sagarin rating will host the first round. Here's a peak at the most likely champions:
53.9% North Dakota State
8.2% Jacksonville State
7.9% Northern Iowa
7.9% Illinois State
7.1% New Hampshire
7.0% Coastal Carolina
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Sagarin's Week 13 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
37 North Dakota State 77.91
83 Iowa State 65.76 +9.00 +20.00 +11.00
199 Weber State 42.61 +32.15 +17.00 -15.15
232 Incarnate Word 30.46 +50.60 +58.00 +7.40
118 Montana 57.85 +23.21 +12.00 -11.21
124 Western Illinois 57.02 +17.74 +7.00 -10.74
109 Southern Illinois 60.18 +20.88 +28.00 +7.12
105 Indiana State 60.74 +20.32 +17.00 -3.32
175 South Dakota 47.39 +27.37 +40.00 +12.63
69 South Dakota State 68.30 +12.76 +20.00 +7.24
60 Northern Iowa 70.89 +3.87 -20.00 -23.87
120 Missouri State 57.51 +17.25 +35.00 +17.75
112 Youngstown State 59.71 +21.35 +24.00 +2.65
64 Illinois State 69.88
Total Diff: +1.50
Home Field 3.15
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team SOS SOSRank Conference
1 37 77.91 North Dakota State 57.32 129 Missouri Valley
2 60 70.89 Northern Iowa 60.19 110 Missouri Valley
3 64 69.88 Illinois State 54.81 142 Missouri Valley
4 65 69.44 Jacksonville State 51.02 162 Ohio Valley
5 69 68.30 South Dakota State 61.61 100 Missouri Valley
6 82 65.77 New Hampshire 47.44 190 Colonial
7 85 65.17 Chattanooga 50.20 170 Southern
8 90 63.90 Eastern Washington 50.55 166 Big Sky
9 92 63.70 Coastal Carolina 45.37 201 Big South
10 93 63.66 Villanova 48.48 182 Colonial
11 96 63.20 SE Louisiana 45.80 199 Southland
12 99 62.90 Harvard 40.46 227 Ivy League
13 101 61.34 Sam Houston State 50.44 169 Southland
14 105 60.74 Indiana State 62.32 94 Missouri Valley
15 109 60.18 Southern Illinois 61.04 107 Missouri Valley
16 111 59.82 Liberty 52.68 154 Big South
17 112 59.71 Youngstown State 56.60 134 Missouri Valley
18 113 58.97 Samford 55.42 140 Southern
19 114 58.69 Fordham 41.34 220 Patriot
20 116 57.93 Richmond 50.46 168 Colonial
21 118 57.85 Montana 50.66 164 Big Sky
22 120 57.51 Missouri State 62.47 93 Missouri Valley
23 124 57.02 Western Illinois 63.43 88 Missouri Valley
24 127 56.57 Idaho State 52.85 153 Big Sky
25 129 56.42 James Madison 49.30 177 Colonial
Code:
ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank
P5 SEC 85.97 97.19 13
P5 BIG 12 79.51 93.07 7
P5 PAC-12 78.23 92.95 8
P5 BIG TEN 74.52 89.13 5
P5 ACC 74.26 86.24 6
NA I-A INDEPENDENTS 69.16 80.71 2
G5 MWC 63.55 76.87 1
G5 AMERICAN ATHLETIC 63.19 74.53 1
FCS MISSOURI VALLEY 62.66 77.91 1
G5 CONFERENCE USA 59.77 79.27 2
G5 MAC 57.17 67.13 1
G5 SUN BELT 55.76 66.42 1
FCS BIG SOUTH 50.39 63.70 1
FCS COLONIAL 49.52 65.77 1
FCS SOUTHLAND 49.00 63.20 1
FCS SOUTHERN 48.61 65.17 1
FCS OHIO VALLEY 48.13 69.44 1
FCS BIG SKY 47.93 63.90 1
FCS PATRIOT 44.14 58.69 1
FCS I-AA INDEPENDENTS 43.94 43.94 1
FCS NORTHEAST 42.64 50.42 1
FCS IVY LEAGUE 42.47 62.90 1
FCS MID-EASTERN 36.84 48.90 1
FCS SWAC 32.01 48.40 1
FCS PIONEER 27.17 44.70 1
Thought the strength of yesterday's win might move us more than just one spot. Seems like we should be around #30 after the post-UNI wins.
Sagarin thought it was a 20.5 point game and we won by 24. Those 3.5 points are 1/12 of the input, not going to move the rating much.Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalBison
I don't know about anyone else, but I'm excited to see bisonaudit's analysis of the playoff field with our chances to win each round. I'm like a kid at Christmas waiting in anticipation to open up the gifts under the tree.
(hint, hint)
;-)
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Efforting.
Sh#t that ain't going to happen.
Me fitting in size 30 jeans.
Coastal Carolina winning the championship.
In the meantime, someone just posted this on the thread about the FCS Selection Show, which is basically the same thing from the Massey computer ratings:Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
http://www.masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=639
Massey predicts Illinois State at UNH and Jacksonville St and NDSU. Then Illinois State vs NDSU for the title. NDSU with a 60% chance of winning the title...far and away the highest percentage.
We would play SDSU and Coastal in their predictor.
Team........... Round 1. Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
#1 New Hampshire --------- 85.7% 54.6% 29.0% 7.8%
Fordham -------------- 75.1% 12.8% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Sacred Heart ----------- 24.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
#8 Chattanooga ----------- 82.1% 36.6% 13.9% 3.5%
Eastern Kentucky ---- 41.2% 4.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana State ------- 58.8% 13.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2%
#5 Illinois State ------------ 66.1% 42.0% 26.3% 9.7%
Northern Iowa ------ 92.4% 33.5% 22.1% 13.1% 5.2%
Stephen F. Austin ------ 7.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
#4 Eastern Washington --- 81.9% 33.5% 15.5% 3.5%
Montana ------------ 94.2% 18.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
San Diego ------------ 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#3 Jacksonville State --- 83.1% 63.8% 18.6% 10.6%
Sam Houston State - 53.8% 8.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1%
SE Louisiana --------- 46.2% 8.6% 3.9% 0.6% 0.2%
#6 Villanova -------------- 79.6% 25.3% 4.7% 1.9%
James Madison ----- 49.3% 8.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Liberty ------------- 50.7% 12.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1%
#7 Coastal Carolina ------- 81.4% 11.3% 3.8% 1.6%
Richmond ---------- 93.9% 18.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Morgan State -------- 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#2 North Dakota State --- 89.4% 81.4% 68.6% 53.9%
Montana State -------- 19.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota State - 80.6% 10.3% 5.9% 2.7% 1.4%
Wow...great stuff. Jacksonville St is the best of the rest in this analysis. Haven't watched any of their games this year...will have to dig into their season.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
San Diego ------------ 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morgan State -------- 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
"So you're saying there's a chance!"
I know you've explained this before, but can you refresh my memory why you add the kicker for the bye? Is that something that you've observed in the Sagarin numbers, even though he doesn't explicitly spell out?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the playoffs:
15-1 53.9%
14-2 14.7%
13-2 12.8%
12-2 8.0%
11-2 10.6%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Playoffs:
Sagarin gives NDSU a 53.9% chance of winning the championship.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
South Dakota State 80.6% (Montana State 19.4%)
#7 Coastal Carolina 81.4% (Richmond 18.5%)
#3 Jacksonville State 63.8% (#6 Villanova 25.3%)
#1 New Hampshire 29.0% (#5 Illinois State 26.3%)
San Diego roughly 836 million to 1Quote:
Originally Posted by FFBison
Morgan State roughly 896 million to 1
I think you are misreading that. He is showing the are the most likely other team to win the title, not that they are the next best team since much of this has to do with path/matchups.Quote:
Originally Posted by FFBison
Correct me if wrong, Audit.
It's not in the Sagarin numbers. It's an ad hoc adjustment that I make on top based on the value of a bye week in the NFL.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Jacksonville State is the next most likely to win the title, not necessarily the next best team. It's path dependent.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Here are the raw Sagarin ratings for all the playoff teams in rank order:
77.91 #2 North Dakota State
70.89 Northern Iowa
69.88 #5 Illinois State
69.44 #3 Jacksonville State
68.30 South Dakota State
65.77 #1 New Hampshire
65.17 #8 Chattanooga
63.90 #4 Eastern Washington
63.70 #7 Coastal Carolina
63.66 #6 Villanova
63.20 SE Louisiana
61.34 Sam Houston State
60.74 Indiana State
59.82 Liberty
58.69 Fordham
57.93 Richmond
57.85 Montana
56.42 James Madison
54.62 Stephen F. Austin
54.59 Eastern Kentucky
53.49 Montana State
50.10 Sacred Heart
40.12 Morgan State
39.60 San Diego
If you flop UNH and NDSU in the bracket NDSU's chances of making the final increase from 68.6% to 71.9% while UNH decreases from 28.8% to 24.5%.
At least by that measure Sagarin doesn't believe that we got the easy side of the bracket.
Of course it looks like most of the issue is playing SDSU in round 2, which likely would have persisted because regionalization. Boo.
Yes, that is indeed the case. If we flip the whole pod of 3 teams rather than just the ranked ones:Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
NDSU's chances of reaching the final decrease from 68.6% to 65.7% while UNH goes from 28.8% to 31.8%.
I don't know if Indiana State can go on the road and win 3 against Eastern Kentucky, Chattanooga and New Hampshire but the rest of a scenario where the MVFC goes 12-4 with all 4 losses to MVFC teams is fairly plausible.
The playoff bracket if regionalization wasn't in play (and they went with Sagarin #s).Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Montana @ Richmond - winner @ #1 NDSU
San Diego @ Coastal Carolina - winner @ #8 Eastern Washington
EKU @ ISUb - winner @ #4 Jacksonville State
Montana St @ SHSU - winner @ #5 SDSU
SFA @ Liberty - winner @ #3 ISUr
Sacred Heart @ SELA - winner @ #6 New Hampshire
Morgan St @ Villanova - winner @ #7 Chattanooga
JMU @ Fordham - winner @ #2 Northern Iowa
Not sure I like that second round pairing any better, but regionalization blows!
Whatever method it is that the selection committee is using, it still puzzles me as to why New Hampshire would be the #1 seed. There's gotta be some bias involved in that decision.
I wish they would use the Sagarin rankings, you can tell just by looking at them that it's a good methodology he uses, very objective.
#1 v #2 is meaningless so they could have just as well flipped a coin. I'm not sure that New Hampshire would have gotten the nod if they were in a battle over the #2 seed because they have only one win over a playoff team and played a pitiful non-conference schedule.Quote:
Originally Posted by LongLostAlum
Although this is just in my world, but I'd like to believe they decided to give them the 1 seed to make everyone happy and then gave us the better bracket because we deserved it.Quote:
Originally Posted by tony
I may disagree with where they put them, but the Committee's excuse/reason whatever you want to call it, I can understand it. Basically because UNH's loss was early and to an FBS they chose them over NDSU because it was an FCS loss close to the end of the season. In the end it doesn't effect us at all, but you are correct there are bias's invovled in the discussion. Is it intentional, no, but there are always bias's. Thats why they have the number they have on the committee. I still think the bigger problem with the playoff is the regionalization/bus trip rule than what rankings they use.Quote:
Originally Posted by LongLostAlum