Sagarin says

[NDSU92]

The highest attended non-NDSU playoff game last year during the quarters and semi's was around 4000 people. Like it or not that is a death sentence for non-regionalization of playoff games.

[Hammerhead]

As I understand it, the NCAA pays for all team travel expenses. So, chartering a jet, food, lodging for 60+ people, etc. That can't be cheap.

As of 2010, the NCAA provided transportation for 130 people. http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...llHandbook.pdf

[missingnumber7]

The highest attended non-NDSU playoff game last year during the quarters and semi's was around 4000 people. Like it or not that is a death sentence for non-regionalization of playoff games.

Qtrs...
Towson at Eastern Illinois - 3,850
Jacksonville at E. Washington - 4,277
UNH at SE Louisiana - 5,586

Semi's
Towson at E. Washington - 6,209

[THEsocalledfan]

Qtrs...
Towson at Eastern Illinois - 3,850
Jacksonville at E. Washington - 4,277
UNH at SE Louisiana - 5,586

Semi's
Towson at E. Washington - 6,209

Well, the good news is that this has to basically guarantee NDSU a #1 or #2 seed since the argument for it is clear, plus the NCAA actually makes money on it.

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Youngstown State 93.5% (+2.8% from last week)

11-1 93.5% (+15.0% from last week)
10-2 6.5% (-13.8%)

Sports Network Playoff Bracket: (I may look at some of the others in the Bracketology thread later in the week if time permits)

I assumed that the higher Sagarin rating will host the first round. Here's a peak at the most likely champions:

53.9% North Dakota State
8.2% Jacksonville State
7.9% Northern Iowa
7.9% Illinois State
7.1% New Hampshire
7.0% Coastal Carolina


Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin's Week 13 Predictions

						
						
Rank    Team                  Sagarin Predict Result Diff						
37	North Dakota State  	77.91				
83	Iowa State          	65.76	+9.00	+20.00	+11.00	
199	Weber State         	42.61	+32.15	+17.00	-15.15	
232	Incarnate Word      	30.46	+50.60	+58.00	+7.40	
118	Montana             	57.85	+23.21	+12.00	-11.21	
124	Western Illinois    	57.02	+17.74	+7.00	-10.74	
109	Southern Illinois   	60.18	+20.88	+28.00	+7.12	
105	Indiana State       	60.74	+20.32	+17.00	-3.32	
175	South Dakota        	47.39	+27.37	+40.00	+12.63	
69	South Dakota State  	68.30	+12.76	+20.00	+7.24	
60	Northern Iowa       	70.89	+3.87	 -20.00	-23.87	
120	Missouri State      	57.51	+17.25	+35.00	+17.75	
112	Youngstown State    	59.71	+21.35	+24.00	+2.65				
						
64	Illinois State      	69.88				
				Total Diff:	+1.50	
	Home Field	3.15				

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
						
Rank SagRank RATING      Team                    SOS SOSRank Conference						
1	37	77.91	North Dakota State  	57.32	129	Missouri Valley
2	60	70.89	Northern Iowa       	60.19	110	Missouri Valley
3	64	69.88	Illinois State      	54.81	142	Missouri Valley
4	65	69.44	Jacksonville State  	51.02	162	Ohio Valley
5	69	68.30	South Dakota State  	61.61	100	Missouri Valley
6	82	65.77	New Hampshire       	47.44	190	Colonial
7	85	65.17	Chattanooga         	50.20	170	Southern
8	90	63.90	Eastern Washington  	50.55	166	Big Sky
9	92	63.70	Coastal Carolina    	45.37	201	Big South
10	93	63.66	Villanova           	48.48	182	Colonial
11	96	63.20	SE Louisiana        	45.80	199	Southland
12	99	62.90	Harvard             	40.46	227	Ivy League
13	101	61.34	Sam Houston State   	50.44	169	Southland
14	105	60.74	Indiana State       	62.32	94	Missouri Valley
15	109	60.18	Southern Illinois   	61.04	107	Missouri Valley
16	111	59.82	Liberty             	52.68	154	Big South
17	112	59.71	Youngstown State    	56.60	134	Missouri Valley
18	113	58.97	Samford             	55.42	140	Southern
19	114	58.69	Fordham             	41.34	220	Patriot
20	116	57.93	Richmond            	50.46	168	Colonial
21	118	57.85	Montana             	50.66	164	Big Sky
22	120	57.51	Missouri State      	62.47	93	Missouri Valley
23	124	57.02	Western Illinois    	63.43	88	Missouri Valley
24	127	56.57	Idaho State         	52.85	153	Big Sky
25	129	56.42	James Madison       	49.30	177	Colonial

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
						
ConfCat Conference           CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank						
P5	SEC                 	85.97	97.19	13		
P5	BIG 12              	79.51	93.07	7		
P5	PAC-12              	78.23	92.95	8		
P5	BIG TEN             	74.52	89.13	5		
P5	ACC                 	74.26	86.24	6		
NA	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	69.16	80.71	2		
G5	MWC                 	63.55	76.87	1		
G5	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	63.19	74.53	1		
FCS	MISSOURI VALLEY     	62.66	77.91	1		
G5	CONFERENCE USA      	59.77	79.27	2		
G5	MAC                 	57.17	67.13	1		
G5	SUN BELT            	55.76	66.42	1		
FCS	BIG SOUTH           	50.39	63.70	1		
FCS	COLONIAL            	49.52	65.77	1		
FCS	SOUTHLAND           	49.00	63.20	1		
FCS	SOUTHERN            	48.61	65.17	1		
FCS	OHIO VALLEY         	48.13	69.44	1		
FCS	BIG SKY             	47.93	63.90	1		
FCS	PATRIOT             	44.14	58.69	1		
FCS	I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	43.94	43.94	1		
FCS	NORTHEAST           	42.64	50.42	1		
FCS	IVY LEAGUE          	42.47	62.90	1		
FCS	MID-EASTERN         	36.84	48.90	1		
FCS	SWAC                	32.01	48.40	1		
FCS	PIONEER             	27.17	44.70	1		

[SoCalBison]

Thought the strength of yesterday's win might move us more than just one spot. Seems like we should be around #30 after the post-UNI wins.

[bisonaudit]

Thought the strength of yesterday's win might move us more than just one spot. Seems like we should be around #30 after the post-UNI wins.

Sagarin thought it was a 20.5 point game and we won by 24. Those 3.5 points are 1/12 of the input, not going to move the rating much.

[thebootfitter]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm excited to see bisonaudit's analysis of the playoff field with our chances to win each round. I'm like a kid at Christmas waiting in anticipation to open up the gifts under the tree.

(hint, hint)

;-)

[bisonaudit]

I don't know about anyone else, but I'm excited to see bisonaudit's analysis of the playoff field with our chances to win each round. I'm like a kid at Christmas waiting in anticipation to open up the gifts under the tree.

(hint, hint)

;-)

Efforting.