Sagarin says

[Bison bison]

Sh#t that ain't going to happen.

Me fitting in size 30 jeans.
Coastal Carolina winning the championship.

[thebootfitter]

Efforting.

In the meantime, someone just posted this on the thread about the FCS Selection Show, which is basically the same thing from the Massey computer ratings:

http://www.masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=639

[FFBison]

Massey predicts Illinois State at UNH and Jacksonville St and NDSU. Then Illinois State vs NDSU for the title. NDSU with a 60% chance of winning the title...far and away the highest percentage.

We would play SDSU and Coastal in their predictor.

[bisonaudit]

Team........... Round 1. Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
#1 New Hampshire --------- 85.7% 54.6% 29.0% 7.8%
Fordham -------------- 75.1% 12.8% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Sacred Heart ----------- 24.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

#8 Chattanooga ----------- 82.1% 36.6% 13.9% 3.5%
Eastern Kentucky ---- 41.2% 4.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana State ------- 58.8% 13.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2%

#5 Illinois State ------------ 66.1% 42.0% 26.3% 9.7%
Northern Iowa ------ 92.4% 33.5% 22.1% 13.1% 5.2%
Stephen F. Austin ------ 7.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

#4 Eastern Washington --- 81.9% 33.5% 15.5% 3.5%
Montana ------------ 94.2% 18.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
San Diego ------------ 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

#3 Jacksonville State --- 83.1% 63.8% 18.6% 10.6%
Sam Houston State - 53.8% 8.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1%
SE Louisiana --------- 46.2% 8.6% 3.9% 0.6% 0.2%

#6 Villanova -------------- 79.6% 25.3% 4.7% 1.9%
James Madison ----- 49.3% 8.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Liberty ------------- 50.7% 12.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1%

#7 Coastal Carolina ------- 81.4% 11.3% 3.8% 1.6%
Richmond ---------- 93.9% 18.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Morgan State -------- 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

#2 North Dakota State --- 89.4% 81.4% 68.6% 53.9%
Montana State -------- 19.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota State - 80.6% 10.3% 5.9% 2.7% 1.4%

[FFBison]

Team........... Round 1. Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
#1 New Hampshire --------- 85.1% 54.2% 28.8% 7.7%
Fordham -------------- 80.8% 13.8% 4.0% 0.8% 0.1%
Sacred Heart ----------- 19.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

#8 Chattanooga ----------- 82.1% 36.7% 13.9% 3.6%
Eastern Kentucky ---- 41.2% 4.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Indiana State ------- 58.8% 13.2% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2%

#5 Illinois State ------------ 66.1% 42.0% 26.3% 9.7%
Northern Iowa ------ 92.4% 33.5% 22.1% 13.1% 5.2%
Stephen F. Austin ------ 7.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

#4 Eastern Washington --- 81.9% 33.5% 15.5% 3.5%
Montana ------------ 94.2% 18.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1%
San Diego ------------ 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

#3 Jacksonville State --- 83.1% 63.8% 18.6% 10.6%
Sam Houston State - 53.8% 8.2% 3.2% 0.4% 0.1%
SE Louisiana --------- 46.2% 8.6% 3.9% 0.6% 0.2%

#6 Villanova -------------- 79.6% 25.3% 4.7% 1.9%
James Madison ----- 49.3% 8.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Liberty ------------- 50.7% 12.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1%

#7 Coastal Carolina ------- 81.4% 11.3% 3.8% 1.6%
Richmond ---------- 93.9% 18.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Morgan State -------- 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

#2 North Dakota State --- 89.4% 81.4% 68.6% 53.9%
Montana State -------- 19.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Dakota State - 80.6% 10.3% 5.9% 2.7% 1.4%

Wow...great stuff. Jacksonville St is the best of the rest in this analysis. Haven't watched any of their games this year...will have to dig into their season.

[FFBison]

San Diego ------------ 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morgan State -------- 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


"So you're saying there's a chance!"

[thebootfitter]

Last edited by bisonaudit; Today at 10:44 AM. Reason: Sacred Heart didn't play this week. Added 2.61 for bye to their Round 1 rating.

I know you've explained this before, but can you refresh my memory why you add the kicker for the bye? Is that something that you've observed in the Sagarin numbers, even though he doesn't explicitly spell out?

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the playoffs:

15-1 53.9%
14-2 14.7%
13-2 12.8%
12-2 8.0%
11-2 10.6%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.


Playoffs:

Sagarin gives NDSU a 53.9% chance of winning the championship.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
South Dakota State 80.6% (Montana State 19.4%)
#7 Coastal Carolina 81.4% (Richmond 18.5%)
#3 Jacksonville State 63.8% (#6 Villanova 25.3%)
#1 New Hampshire 29.0% (#5 Illinois State 26.3%)

[bisonaudit]

San Diego ------------ 5.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Morgan State -------- 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


"So you're saying there's a chance!"

San Diego roughly 836 million to 1
Morgan State roughly 896 million to 1

[THEsocalledfan]

Wow...great stuff. Jacksonville St is the best of the rest in this analysis. Haven't watched any of their games this year...will have to dig into their season.

I think you are misreading that. He is showing the are the most likely other team to win the title, not that they are the next best team since much of this has to do with path/matchups.

Correct me if wrong, Audit.