If we played in a weak a$$ conference like they do it would be fine, but we don't. It will never happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonguy
Printable View
If we played in a weak a$$ conference like they do it would be fine, but we don't. It will never happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonguy
They are #2 but isn't there still a chance they don't even make the playoffs because they'll only have 7 DI wins?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonguy
The are a lock and a seed...Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonwinagn
In the playoffs, I agree. But I can't see how they could leap the following teams:
Assuming the following win next week here is their DI record.
NDSU: 10-1 FBS win
Old Dominion: 10-1
Montana St: 9-1
EWU: 9-2 with a FBS win and FBS loss
New Hampshire: 9-2 with FBS loss
Cal Poly: 9-2 with FBS win
Central Arkansas: 8-2 with FBS loss and head to head over SHSU
SHSU is playing real good now, but I don't think the committee should reward a team for moral victories in playing FBS teams.
Here is what Sam is looking at: 7-3 with two FBS losses
For SHSU to get a seed, a team like UNH or Poly is going to be hosed.
i wonder if the committee will give ODU a seed since they cant even win their conference autobid...sort of like an F U?
There are a lot of 8 and 9 win teams. I suppose you could say a 7 team win like SHSU deserves to get in due to their strength of schedule but I don't see why they would be a seed with only 7 wins.
People always say the sub-DI wins don't count, but in reality they do in a negative manner.Quote:
Originally Posted by JSUBison
The 7 DI wins is held as gospel:
but everyone seems to forget the at-large selection criteria listed immediately after that:Quote:
3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength ofschedule; however, less than seven Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of
not being selected;
Quote:
4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all
Division I opponents; and
I'm not to sure about that. It looks like Central Arkansas gets the autobid since the they beat SHSU so they win the tiebreaker.
http://www.southland.org/Sports/Foot...-Breakers.aspx
I suppose they could end up with the #5 seed like UNI did last year when they shared the conference title with us.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonwinagn
I have zero idea about them getting seeded. I think they are a lock for the field of 20.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
I'm not hip to the inputs and outputs on this program...but is there a way to analyze only using this years match ups, and only our conference games? I guess maybe what I am thinking of would be a purely conference model.
Yes and no. At this point in the season the algorithm only uses this seasons results. Early in the season some preseason ratings, presumably based on prior year results with some adjustments are used but after a number of weeks they're phased out entirely and only current year results are used.Quote:
Originally Posted by McBison
There is no conference only option, because the point is to build something to compare teams who don't play each other. That is very hard to do without common opponents so eliminating nonconference games would weaken the usefulness of the exercise considerably.
Right on, thanks for the insight
Sagarin was effectively 50% at picking the playoff field. Interesting note: the MVFC is now ranked above C-USA in the regular Sagarin ratings.
Sagarin's final regular season predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-15Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
45 North Dakota State 75.80
219 Robert Morris 34.22 +44.45 +52.00 + 7.55
127 Colorado State 57.96 +14.97 +15.00 + 0.03
236 Prairie View A&M 28.60 +50.07 +59.00 + 8.93
76 Northern Iowa 66.89 + 6.04 +12.00 + 5.96
100 Youngstown State 61.47 +17.20 +41.00 +23.80
94 Indiana State 63.04 +15.63 - 3.00 -18.63
179 South Dakota 46.50 +29.30 +54.00 +24.70
95 Southern Illinois 62.81 +15.86 + 6.00 - 9.86
142 Missouri State 54.92 +18.01 + 4.00 -14.01
88 South Dakota State 64.41 +14.26 + 3.00 -11.26
103 Illinois State 61.17 +11.76 +18.00 + 6.24
213 Western Illinois 36.60
Total Diff: +23.45
Home 2.87
Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS ConferencesCode:45 North Dakota State
55 Sam Houston State
76 Northern Iowa
79 Montana State
87 Georgia Southern
88 South Dakota State
89 Eastern Washington
90 Cal Poly
94 Indiana State
95 Southern Illinois
98 Central Arkansas
100 Youngstown State
103 Illinois State
105 Villanova
107 Towson
Code:1. MVFC 60.51
2. Big Sky 54.74
3. Colonial 53.78
4. Southern 52.69
Here's the playoff field. Predictions on our side of the bracket have home field factored in; predictions on the other side assume a neutral field. Game by game predictions show the path being SDSU - Wofford - Georgia Southern - SHSU. Looks a bit familiar.
Code:Sagarin Predict
45 North Dakota State 75.80
55 Sam Houston State 73.41 + 2.39
79 Montana State 66.06 + 9.74
87 Georgia Southern 64.51 +14.16
88 South Dakota State 64.41 +14.26
89 Eastern Washington 64.20 +11.60
90 Cal Poly 63.83 +11.97
98 Central Arkansas 62.00 +16.67
103 Illinois State 61.17 +14.63
105 Villanova 61.07 +14.73
111 Old Dominion 59.61 +19.06
115 Wofford 59.16 +19.51
120 Eastern Illinois 58.74 +19.93
123 Stony Brook 58.46 +17.34
133 Appalachian State 56.75 +19.05
144 Bethune-Cookman 54.75 +23.92
145 New Hampshire 54.72 +23.95
152 Coastal Carolina 52.95 +25.72
167 Colgate 49.99 +25.81
175 Wagner 47.34 +28.46
Colgate vs Wagner, eh? Hmmmmmmm.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
This is what Sagarin should be saying:
SCREW BEAST MODE...
BISON MODE ACTIVATED!
http://i1.cpcache.com/product/631980...ens_wallet.jpg
http://www.cafepress.com/+beast_mode...llet,631980449
Might have to buy that wallet.
Top 20 Sagarin – Italics did not make playoffs
51 North Dakota State 75.80
68 Sam Houston State 73.41
81 Montana State 66.06
83 South Dakota State 64.41
85 Eastern Washington 64.20
88 Central Arkansas 62.00
92 Cal Poly-SLO 63.83
93 Northern Iowa 66.89
95 Indiana State 63.04
97 Illinois State 61.17
98 Georgia Southern 64.51
99 Southern Illinois 62.81
101 Youngstown State 61.47
102 Eastern Kentucky 59.09
108 Tennessee-Martin 56.71
109 Eastern Illinois 58.74
111 McNeese State 58.86
112 Northern Arizona 59.55
114 Old Dominion 59.61
119 Wofford 59.16
So #1 NDSU likely gets to play #4 SDSU for their first game in a 20 team playoff. Thank you NCAA selection committee. F U too!Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
I agree we got hosed but really if you look the whole conference got hosed..... Just sayingQuote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
So true. If the MVFC got 4 teams in the playoffs and each got in a different part of the bracket 3 of those 4 would likely be in the semi-finals. Just sayin!Quote:
Originally Posted by unbison
Two teams from out east that are Sagarin rated 160 ish are in the playoffs. Wow!
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
It sucks that we have to potentially play SDSU for our 1st game but we now have 2 weeks to rest and that came at a great time. Guys have time to heal up.
SDSU didn't do much offensively up until their last drive we the Bison were in a worthless 'prevent'.....I think they only had 120 yards up until that drive.
IMO, we beat the Jacks by 2 TDs this time.
I'm with you on this one. I think the game with SDSU will be a mirror image of the first game the Bison played last year. JMU scored more points on the Bison than all of the other playoff opponents combined. I think it could very well play out that way this year as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by BisoninNWMN
So what does Sagarain say about winning %'s for the playoff bracket that we are in?
Team. Round 1. Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 91.2% 85.3% 75.8% 53.4%
E. Ill. -- 26.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.05%
SDSU -- 73.7% 7.6% 4.6% 2.3% 0.9%
NHU ---------- 29.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
Wofford ------ 70.6% 7.7% 2.9% 0.8%
GSU ---------- 65.5% 40.3% 9.2% 3.7%
C. Ark. ------- 34.5% 18.9% 3.2% 1.1%
ODU --------- 79.7% 37.1% 5.6% 1.6%
CC ---- 36.4% 6.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.01%
B-C --- 63.6% 13.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.04%
Mont. St. ----- 81.3% 34.1% 19.2% 6.3%
Nova -- 49.2% 10.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1%
SB ---- 50.8% 8.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Cal Poly ------ 17.8% 7.4% 3.4% 0.9%
SHSU --------- 82.2% 55.7% 41.7% 21.6%
Ill. St. -------- 54.6% 19.8% 4.5% 1.0%
App. St. ------ 45.4% 11.6% 1.7% 0.2%
EWU ---------- 94.1% 67.6% 28.5% 8.1%
Colgate 49.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.04% 0.003%
Wagner 50.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.01% 0.001%
Thanks Bisonaudit... Out of curiuosity, how do you come up with these %'s?
Assumes that outcomes are normally distributed around Sagarin's predicted margin with a standard deviation of roughly 14 points. Uses Sagarin's home field advantage and assumes a further advantage coming off a bye week. There's additional discussion and sources for assumptions elsewhere in this thread.
In round 2 and each succeeding round calculate the chances of victory in each potential matchup and weight the results based on the probability of that matchup occuring.
Excel is fairly slick for these things, because you're just iterating the same basic calculation with different inputs. So once its built you can recycle and make incremental improvements. Like the presentation you just asked for is much more concise than my current structure so I'll have to tweek that and I also need to review the details of my formula when I have a chance because it was repurposed from a spread wagering gonculator and I think that the adjustment to deal with possible push wagers may be influencing my calculated odds fractionally.
So, in other words, don't bet the tie?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Team. Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 87.1% 81.8% 73.4% 52.5%
SDSU -------- 12.9% 8.6% 4.9% 2.3%
NHU ---------- 27.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Wofford ------ 72.7% 8.0% 3.1% 0.8%
GSU ---------- 67.5% 41.8% 9.7% 3.9%
C. Ark. ------- 32.5% 17.5% 2.9% 0.9%
ODU --------- 79.8% 37.0% 5.5% 1.5%
CC ----------- 20.2% 3.6% 0.2% 0.04%
Mont. St. ----- 81.4% 33.8% 18.8% 5.9%
SB ------------ 18.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Cal Poly ------ 16.5% 6.7% 2.9% 0.8%
SHSU --------- 83.5% 56.8% 42.6% 21.9%
Ill. St. -------- 53.0% 19.0% 4.2% 0.9%
App. St. ------ 47.0% 12.1% 1.8% 0.3%
EWU ---------- 94.6% 68.1% 28.8% 7.9%
Wagner ------- 5.4% 0.8% 0.04% 0.002%
After their win on Saturday Sagarin makes SDSU the 3rd best team in the field behind only NDSU and SHSU. Sagarin had them 5th entering the post season.
Unless SHSU absolutely puts the wood to Cal Ploy whoever emerges victorious from the FargoDome on Saturday will be at the top of Sagarin's quarterfinal table.
Push scenarios rather than push wagers would have been a better way to say it. If the sportsbook nails the line exactly you get your wager back so if you're trying to figure your EV and the line is an integer you want to account for that eventuality which is much more common than an actual tie.Quote:
Originally Posted by gotts
Does Vegas run line on the FCS playoffs or only online books? I will happen to be in Vegas.....Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
FCS championship game only. Sister asked last time in Vegas about a month ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Darn, figured I'd be placing bets for everyone.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonfan1
Thats interesting that SDSU would be so high considering they would probably be on the road for the entire playoffs or did you not factor that in since its just an assumption SDSU wouldnt bid high enough for the game. Also how much of a bump is there for a team coming off a bye?? I personally think this weeks game would be tougher than next weeksQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
betus.comQuote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
5dimes.eu
we can do it ourselves right now
Line yet? (My wife made me give up offshore stuff after the Full Tilt debacle......)Quote:
Originally Posted by dragonsfan
Highly considered by Sagarin, who isn't the committee and doesn't necessarily have the same motivations as the committee. I don't mean the motivation comment to cast a negative light on the selection committee. Part of their job is to reward performance on the field, which is different than Sagarin who's motivation is the prediction of future contests.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
The model assigns every team a "seed" based on their placement in the bracket. So as the home team for the play in game in the #1 seed's quarter of the draw, SDSU gets treated like a 16 seed in my projection. As a result the projection assumes that SDSU would be the road team in all circumstances except a semi-final v. Coastal Carolina. To be clear these assumptions are relevant to my projected percentage chances of advancing in the tournament, but they are not relevant to Sagarin's assessment of the quality of each individual team, which was what I was referencing when I said Sagarin made SDSU the 3rd best team in the field and implied that if they defeated us they'd very likely jump over SHSU when Sagarin is published again next Sunday.
Bye week advantage: I've set it equal to the home field advantage in my projections. Research on NFL games suggests that the two numbers are quite close.
this week v. next: Sagarin agrees with you completely and utterly even with the extra 3 points for the bye week, NDSU is 87.1% to win or -15.5 per Sagarin, if that's the way you roll. Should NDSU win, the current assessment of potential quarterfinal matchups looks like this:
v. Wofford 92.9% or -20
v. New Hampshire 96.6% or -25
Team. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 92.9% 84.0% 64.2%
Wofford ------ 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%
GSU --------- 54.9% 9.0% 3.9%
ODU --------- 45.1% 4.5% 1.4%
Mont. St. ----- 39.2% 22.2% 5.4%
SHSU --------- 60.8% 45.1% 18.3%
Ill. St. -------- 35.3% 7.0% 1.1%
EWU ---------- 64.7% 25.7% 4.9%
So you're saying there's a chance...Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I like what I see.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit