Sagarin says

[THEsocalledfan]

Push scenarios rather than push wagers would have been a better way to say it. If the sportsbook nails the line exactly you get your wager back so if you're trying to figure your EV and the line is an integer you want to account for that eventuality which is much more common than an actual tie.

Does Vegas run line on the FCS playoffs or only online books? I will happen to be in Vegas.....

[Bisonfan1]

Does Vegas run line on the FCS playoffs or only online books? I will happen to be in Vegas.....

FCS championship game only. Sister asked last time in Vegas about a month ago.

[THEsocalledfan]

FCS championship game only. Sister asked last time in Vegas about a month ago.

Darn, figured I'd be placing bets for everyone.....

[stevdock]

After their win on Saturday Sagarin makes SDSU the 3rd best team in the field behind only NDSU and SHSU. Sagarin had them 5th entering the post season.

Unless SHSU absolutely puts the wood to Cal Ploy whoever emerges victorious from the FargoDome on Saturday will be at the top of Sagarin's quarterfinal table.

Thats interesting that SDSU would be so high considering they would probably be on the road for the entire playoffs or did you not factor that in since its just an assumption SDSU wouldnt bid high enough for the game. Also how much of a bump is there for a team coming off a bye?? I personally think this weeks game would be tougher than next weeks

[dragonsfan]

Darn, figured I'd be placing bets for everyone.....

betus.com
5dimes.eu
we can do it ourselves right now

[THEsocalledfan]

betus.com
5dimes.eu
we can do it ourselves right now

Line yet? (My wife made me give up offshore stuff after the Full Tilt debacle......)

[bisonaudit]

Thats interesting that SDSU would be so high considering they would probably be on the road for the entire playoffs or did you not factor that in since its just an assumption SDSU wouldnt bid high enough for the game. Also how much of a bump is there for a team coming off a bye?? I personally think this weeks game would be tougher than next weeks

Highly considered by Sagarin, who isn't the committee and doesn't necessarily have the same motivations as the committee. I don't mean the motivation comment to cast a negative light on the selection committee. Part of their job is to reward performance on the field, which is different than Sagarin who's motivation is the prediction of future contests.

The model assigns every team a "seed" based on their placement in the bracket. So as the home team for the play in game in the #1 seed's quarter of the draw, SDSU gets treated like a 16 seed in my projection. As a result the projection assumes that SDSU would be the road team in all circumstances except a semi-final v. Coastal Carolina. To be clear these assumptions are relevant to my projected percentage chances of advancing in the tournament, but they are not relevant to Sagarin's assessment of the quality of each individual team, which was what I was referencing when I said Sagarin made SDSU the 3rd best team in the field and implied that if they defeated us they'd very likely jump over SHSU when Sagarin is published again next Sunday.

Bye week advantage: I've set it equal to the home field advantage in my projections. Research on NFL games suggests that the two numbers are quite close.

this week v. next: Sagarin agrees with you completely and utterly even with the extra 3 points for the bye week, NDSU is 87.1% to win or -15.5 per Sagarin, if that's the way you roll. Should NDSU win, the current assessment of potential quarterfinal matchups looks like this:

v. Wofford 92.9% or -20
v. New Hampshire 96.6% or -25

[bisonaudit]

Team. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 92.9% 84.0% 64.2%
Wofford ------ 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%

GSU --------- 54.9% 9.0% 3.9%
ODU --------- 45.1% 4.5% 1.4%

Mont. St. ----- 39.2% 22.2% 5.4%
SHSU --------- 60.8% 45.1% 18.3%

Ill. St. -------- 35.3% 7.0% 1.1%
EWU ---------- 64.7% 25.7% 4.9%

[TateMosersneighbor]

Team. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 92.9% 84.0% 64.2%
Wofford ------ 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%

GSU --------- 54.9% 9.0% 3.9%
ODU --------- 45.1% 4.5% 1.4%

Mont. St. ----- 39.2% 22.2% 5.4%
SHSU --------- 60.8% 45.1% 18.3%

Ill. St. -------- 35.3% 7.0% 1.1%
EWU ---------- 64.7% 25.7% 4.9%

So you're saying there's a chance...

[TAILG8R]

Team. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 92.9% 84.0% 64.2%
Wofford ------ 7.1% 2.5% 0.8%

GSU --------- 54.9% 9.0% 3.9%
ODU --------- 45.1% 4.5% 1.4%

Mont. St. ----- 39.2% 22.2% 5.4%
SHSU --------- 60.8% 45.1% 18.3%

Ill. St. -------- 35.3% 7.0% 1.1%
EWU ---------- 64.7% 25.7% 4.9%

I like what I see.