Sagarin says

[bisonaudit]

I'm not hip to the inputs and outputs on this program...but is there a way to analyze only using this years match ups, and only our conference games? I guess maybe what I am thinking of would be a purely conference model.

Yes and no. At this point in the season the algorithm only uses this seasons results. Early in the season some preseason ratings, presumably based on prior year results with some adjustments are used but after a number of weeks they're phased out entirely and only current year results are used.

There is no conference only option, because the point is to build something to compare teams who don't play each other. That is very hard to do without common opponents so eliminating nonconference games would weaken the usefulness of the exercise considerably.

[McBison]

Right on, thanks for the insight

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin was effectively 50% at picking the playoff field. Interesting note: the MVFC is now ranked above C-USA in the regular Sagarin ratings.


Sagarin's final regular season predictions:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 45	North Dakota State	75.80			
219	Robert Morris		34.22     +44.45     +52.00	+ 7.55
127	Colorado State		57.96	  +14.97     +15.00	+ 0.03
236	Prairie View A&M	28.60	  +50.07     +59.00	+ 8.93
 76	Northern Iowa		66.89	  + 6.04     +12.00	+ 5.96
100	Youngstown State	61.47	  +17.20     +41.00	+23.80
 94	Indiana State		63.04	  +15.63     - 3.00	-18.63
179	South Dakota		46.50	  +29.30     +54.00	+24.70
 95	Southern Illinois	62.81	  +15.86     + 6.00	- 9.86
142	Missouri State		54.92	  +18.01     + 4.00	-14.01
 88	South Dakota State	64.41	  +14.26     + 3.00	-11.26
103	Illinois State		61.17	  +11.76     +18.00	+ 6.24
					
213	Western Illinois	36.60			
						Total Diff:	+23.45
	Home			 2.87

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-15

 45  North Dakota State
 55  Sam Houston State
 76  Northern Iowa
 79  Montana State
 87  Georgia Southern
 88  South Dakota State
 89  Eastern Washington
 90  Cal Poly
 94  Indiana State
 95  Southern Illinois
 98  Central Arkansas
100  Youngstown State
103  Illinois State
105  Villanova
107  Towson

Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	60.51
2.  Big Sky	54.74
3.  Colonial	53.78
4.  Southern	52.69

[Hammersmith]

Here's the playoff field. Predictions on our side of the bracket have home field factored in; predictions on the other side assume a neutral field. Game by game predictions show the path being SDSU - Wofford - Georgia Southern - SHSU. Looks a bit familiar.

			       Sagarin	  Predict
 45	North Dakota State	75.80	
 55	Sam Houston State	73.41     + 2.39
 79	Montana State		66.06	  + 9.74
 87	Georgia Southern	64.51	  +14.16
 88	South Dakota State	64.41	  +14.26
 89	Eastern Washington	64.20	  +11.60
 90	Cal Poly		63.83	  +11.97
 98	Central Arkansas	62.00	  +16.67
103	Illinois State		61.17	  +14.63
105	Villanova		61.07	  +14.73
111	Old Dominion		59.61	  +19.06
115	Wofford			59.16	  +19.51
120	Eastern Illinois	58.74	  +19.93
123	Stony Brook		58.46	  +17.34
133	Appalachian State	56.75	  +19.05
144	Bethune-Cookman		54.75	  +23.92
145	New Hampshire		54.72	  +23.95
152	Coastal Carolina	52.95	  +25.72
167	Colgate			49.99	  +25.81
175	Wagner			47.34	  +28.46

[Tatanka]

Here's the playoff field. Predictions on our side of the bracket have home field factored in; predictions on the other side assume a neutral field. Game by game predictions show the path being SDSU - Wofford - Georgia Southern - SHSU. Looks a bit familiar.

			       Sagarin	  Predict
 45	North Dakota State	75.80	
 55	Sam Houston State	73.41     + 2.39
 79	Montana State		66.06	  + 9.74
 87	Georgia Southern	64.51	  +14.16
 88	South Dakota State	64.41	  +14.26
 89	Eastern Washington	64.20	  +11.60
 90	Cal Poly		63.83	  +11.97
 98	Central Arkansas	62.00	  +16.67
103	Illinois State		61.17	  +14.63
105	Villanova		61.07	  +14.73
111	Old Dominion		59.61	  +19.06
115	Wofford			59.16	  +19.51
120	Eastern Illinois	58.74	  +19.93
123	Stony Brook		58.46	  +17.34
133	Appalachian State	56.75	  +19.05
144	Bethune-Cookman		54.75	  +23.92
145	New Hampshire		54.72	  +23.95
152	Coastal Carolina	52.95	  +25.72
167	Colgate			49.99	  +25.81
175	Wagner			47.34	  +28.46

Colgate vs Wagner, eh? Hmmmmmmm.

[tony]

This is what Sagarin should be saying:

SCREW BEAST MODE...
BISON MODE ACTIVATED!


http://www.cafepress.com/+beast_mode...llet,631980449

Might have to buy that wallet.

[westnodak93bison]

Top 20 Sagarin – Italics did not make playoffs
51 North Dakota State 75.80
68 Sam Houston State 73.41
81 Montana State 66.06
83 South Dakota State 64.41
85 Eastern Washington 64.20
88 Central Arkansas 62.00
92 Cal Poly-SLO 63.83
93 Northern Iowa 66.89
95 Indiana State 63.04
97 Illinois State 61.17
98 Georgia Southern 64.51
99 Southern Illinois 62.81
101 Youngstown State 61.47
102 Eastern Kentucky 59.09
108 Tennessee-Martin 56.71
109 Eastern Illinois 58.74
111 McNeese State 58.86
112 Northern Arizona 59.55
114 Old Dominion 59.61
119 Wofford 59.16

[SDbison]

Top 20 Sagarin – Italics did not make playoffs
51 North Dakota State 75.80
68 Sam Houston State 73.41
81 Montana State 66.06
83 South Dakota State 64.41
85 Eastern Washington 64.20
88 Central Arkansas 62.00
92 Cal Poly-SLO 63.83
93 Northern Iowa 66.89
95 Indiana State 63.04
97 Illinois State 61.17
98 Georgia Southern 64.51
99 Southern Illinois 62.81
101 Youngstown State 61.47
102 Eastern Kentucky 59.09
108 Tennessee-Martin 56.71
109 Eastern Illinois 58.74
111 McNeese State 58.86
112 Northern Arizona 59.55
114 Old Dominion 59.61
119 Wofford 59.16

So #1 NDSU likely gets to play #4 SDSU for their first game in a 20 team playoff. Thank you NCAA selection committee. F U too!

[unbison]

So #1 NDSU likely gets to play #4 SDSU for their first game in a 20 team playoff. Thank you NCAA selection committee. F U too!

I agree we got hosed but really if you look the whole conference got hosed..... Just saying

[SDbison]

I agree we got hosed but really if you look the whole conference got hosed..... Just saying

So true. If the MVFC got 4 teams in the playoffs and each got in a different part of the bracket 3 of those 4 would likely be in the semi-finals. Just sayin!
Two teams from out east that are Sagarin rated 160 ish are in the playoffs. Wow!