Sagarin says

[BisoninNWMN]

So true. If the MVFC got 4 teams in the playoffs and each got in a different part of the bracket 3 of those 4 would likely be in the semi-finals. Just sayin!
Two teams from out east that are Sagarin rated 160 ish are in the playoffs. Wow!

It sucks that we have to potentially play SDSU for our 1st game but we now have 2 weeks to rest and that came at a great time. Guys have time to heal up.

SDSU didn't do much offensively up until their last drive we the Bison were in a worthless 'prevent'.....I think they only had 120 yards up until that drive.

IMO, we beat the Jacks by 2 TDs this time.

[BisonNeil]

It sucks that we have to potentially play SDSU for our 1st game but we now have 2 weeks to rest and that came at a great time. Guys have time to heal up.

SDSU didn't do much offensively up until their last drive we the Bison were in a worthless 'prevent'.....I think they only had 120 yards up until that drive.

IMO, we beat the Jacks by 2 TDs this time.

I'm with you on this one. I think the game with SDSU will be a mirror image of the first game the Bison played last year. JMU scored more points on the Bison than all of the other playoff opponents combined. I think it could very well play out that way this year as well.

[KTF]

So what does Sagarain say about winning %'s for the playoff bracket that we are in?

[bisonaudit]

Team. Round 1. Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 91.2% 85.3% 75.8% 53.4%
E. Ill. -- 26.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.05%
SDSU -- 73.7% 7.6% 4.6% 2.3% 0.9%
NHU ---------- 29.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
Wofford ------ 70.6% 7.7% 2.9% 0.8%

GSU ---------- 65.5% 40.3% 9.2% 3.7%
C. Ark. ------- 34.5% 18.9% 3.2% 1.1%
ODU --------- 79.7% 37.1% 5.6% 1.6%
CC ---- 36.4% 6.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.01%
B-C --- 63.6% 13.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.04%

Mont. St. ----- 81.3% 34.1% 19.2% 6.3%
Nova -- 49.2% 10.5% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1%
SB ---- 50.8% 8.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Cal Poly ------ 17.8% 7.4% 3.4% 0.9%
SHSU --------- 82.2% 55.7% 41.7% 21.6%

Ill. St. -------- 54.6% 19.8% 4.5% 1.0%
App. St. ------ 45.4% 11.6% 1.7% 0.2%
EWU ---------- 94.1% 67.6% 28.5% 8.1%
Colgate 49.3% 3.5% 0.7% 0.04% 0.003%
Wagner 50.7% 2.4% 0.3% 0.01% 0.001%

[KTF]

Thanks Bisonaudit... Out of curiuosity, how do you come up with these %'s?

[bisonaudit]

Assumes that outcomes are normally distributed around Sagarin's predicted margin with a standard deviation of roughly 14 points. Uses Sagarin's home field advantage and assumes a further advantage coming off a bye week. There's additional discussion and sources for assumptions elsewhere in this thread.

In round 2 and each succeeding round calculate the chances of victory in each potential matchup and weight the results based on the probability of that matchup occuring.

Excel is fairly slick for these things, because you're just iterating the same basic calculation with different inputs. So once its built you can recycle and make incremental improvements. Like the presentation you just asked for is much more concise than my current structure so I'll have to tweek that and I also need to review the details of my formula when I have a chance because it was repurposed from a spread wagering gonculator and I think that the adjustment to deal with possible push wagers may be influencing my calculated odds fractionally.

[gotts]

Assumes that outcomes are normally distributed around Sagarin's predicted margin with a standard deviation of roughly 14 points. Uses Sagarin's home field advantage and assumes a further advantage coming off a bye week. There's additional discussion and sources for assumptions elsewhere in this thread.

In round 2 and each succeeding round calculate the chances of victory in each potential matchup and weight the results based on the probability of that matchup occuring.

Excel is fairly slick for these things, because you're just iterating the same basic calculation with different inputs. So once its built you can recycle and make incremental improvements. Like the presentation you just asked for is much more concise than my current structure so I'll have to tweek that and I also need to review the details of my formula when I have a chance because it was repurposed from a spread wagering gonculator and I think that the adjustment to deal with possible push wagers may be influencing my calculated odds fractionally.

So, in other words, don't bet the tie?

[bisonaudit]

Team. Round 2. Quarters. Semis. Final
NDSU -------- 87.1% 81.8% 73.4% 52.5%
SDSU -------- 12.9% 8.6% 4.9% 2.3%
NHU ---------- 27.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Wofford ------ 72.7% 8.0% 3.1% 0.8%

GSU ---------- 67.5% 41.8% 9.7% 3.9%
C. Ark. ------- 32.5% 17.5% 2.9% 0.9%
ODU --------- 79.8% 37.0% 5.5% 1.5%
CC ----------- 20.2% 3.6% 0.2% 0.04%

Mont. St. ----- 81.4% 33.8% 18.8% 5.9%
SB ------------ 18.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Cal Poly ------ 16.5% 6.7% 2.9% 0.8%
SHSU --------- 83.5% 56.8% 42.6% 21.9%

Ill. St. -------- 53.0% 19.0% 4.2% 0.9%
App. St. ------ 47.0% 12.1% 1.8% 0.3%
EWU ---------- 94.6% 68.1% 28.8% 7.9%
Wagner ------- 5.4% 0.8% 0.04% 0.002%

[bisonaudit]

After their win on Saturday Sagarin makes SDSU the 3rd best team in the field behind only NDSU and SHSU. Sagarin had them 5th entering the post season.

Unless SHSU absolutely puts the wood to Cal Ploy whoever emerges victorious from the FargoDome on Saturday will be at the top of Sagarin's quarterfinal table.

[bisonaudit]

So, in other words, don't bet the tie?

Push scenarios rather than push wagers would have been a better way to say it. If the sportsbook nails the line exactly you get your wager back so if you're trying to figure your EV and the line is an integer you want to account for that eventuality which is much more common than an actual tie.