Sagarin says

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 79.27 would rank:

3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
5th in the ACC (=0)
4th in the Big Ten (=0)
5th in the Big 12 (+2)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
2nd in the MWC (+1)
9th in the PAC 12 (+1)
8th in the SEC (+2)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)

[thebootfitter]

CUSA 59.82 (-0.29 from last week)
MVFC 59.24 (+1.13)
MAC 58.72 (-1.10)
Sn Blt 58.08 (-0.13)

Wait... what? The MVFC just leapfrogged both the MAC and the Sun Belt? Something funky did happen with the numbers this week. I wish we had a little more insight into Sagarin's methodology.

[thebigund]

And a Gatorade bath to boot. I'm not familiar with protocol, so I may have the order wrong.


Actually, well played. Immediately when I read that post, I knew your reply would be swift and pretty much spot on.

It was an underhand softball pitch for me to mercilessly bunt.

[Vitojr130]

Wait... what? The MVFC just leapfrogged both the MAC and the Sun Belt? Something funky did happen with the numbers this week. I wish we had a little more insight into Sagarin's methodology.

Couldn't believe it when I read it, so I went to his website and saw this:

Ratings by conference:
16 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 59.44 59.37 ( 16) 10 59.05 ( 17)
17 CONFERENCE USA-EAST (A) = 59.11 57.92 ( 18) 7 59.83 ( 16)
18 SUN BELT (A) = 58.98 58.41 ( 17) 8 58.83 ( 18)
19 MAC-EAST (A) = 58.18 57.74 ( 19) 7 58.42 ( 19)

Does this mean GSU and ASU's move to the Sun Belt was lateral at best? Maybe they should have just joined the MWFC

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin's numbers were put up on the site very early this week. We moved up to 79.90 in his Predictor score (29th).

Interesting observation this week: Louisville at 9-1 has a slightly less difficult strength of schedule (59.39, 117th) than we have had with our 10-0 record (59.84, 113th).

More analysis to come, from others as well as me...

[Hammersmith]

It's getting harder and harder to keep the SoCon on the top conferences list. Had to go to 7 conferences this week as the Ivy League shot up to 5th(displacing Big Sky and SoCon). NDSU cracks the top-30 in Predictor as noted above. Princeton jumps the ladder again in the top-25; the computer model is really hot lately on the Ivys for some reason. The model is smoothing out our total point difference as the season wraps up(that's what it's supposed to do). Looking at the differentials for each game, it seems like the Bison have been pretty consistent. Assuming a standard deviation of 14 points, there has only been one game where the Bison were outside of that(UNI). According to Sagarin, "they are who we(the computer) thought they were." UNI still a top-10 team according to Predictor. The grouping is really interesting between YSU, SDSU, MSU & SIU. Less than half a point separates the entire group. Sagarin predicts a big blowout next weekend.



Sagarin's Week 13 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 29	North Dakota State	79.90					
 25	Kansas State		81.91	   -5.98       3.00	 8.98		
 NA	Ferris State		   NA	      NA      46.00	   NA		
224	Delaware State		35.80	   48.07      51.00	 2.93		
100	South Dakota State	61.74	   14.19      20.00	 5.81		
 83	Northern Iowa		64.57	   19.30       1.00    -18.30		
102	Missouri State		61.67	   22.20      15.00	-7.20		
105	Southern Illinois	61.47	   14.46      21.00	 6.54		
199	Indiana State		39.97	   35.96      46.00	10.04		
123	Illinois State		57.83	   26.04      18.00	-8.04		
 98	Youngstown State	61.90	   14.03      18.00	 3.97		
166	South Dakota		50.01	   33.86				
							
162	Western Illinois	50.64					
						Total Diff:	 4.73
	Home			 3.97

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

 1   29  North Dakota State
 2   45  Eastern Illinois
 3   69  SE Louisiana
 4   72  Villanova
 5   73  Towson
 6   76  Eastern Washington
 7   81  William & Mary
 8   83  Northern Iowa
 9   86  Montana
10   90  Maine
11   93  Sam Houston State
12   96  McNeese State
13   97  Princeton
14   98  Youngstown State
15  100  South Dakota State
16  102  Missouri State
17  105  Southern Illinois
18  111  Coastal Carolina
19  114  Harvard
20  115  Cal Poly
21  116  Jacksonville State
22  119  Old Dominion
23  121  Bethune-Cookman
24  122  New Hampshire
25  123  Illinois State

Sagarin Predictor Top-7 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	59.35
2.  Colonial	56.14
3.  Ohio Valley 52.45
4.  Southland	52.43
5.  Ivy League	50.52
6.  Big Sky	49.45
7.  Southern	48.41

[Tatanka]

It's getting harder and harder to keep the SoCon on the top conferences list. Had to go to 7 conferences this week as the Ivy League shot up to 5th(displacing Big Sky and SoCon). NDSU cracks the top-30 in Predictor as noted above. Princeton jumps the ladder again in the top-25; the computer model is really hot lately on the Ivys for some reason. The model is smoothing out our total point difference as the season wraps up(that's what it's supposed to do). Looking at the differentials for each game, it seems like the Bison have been pretty consistent. Assuming a standard deviation of 14 points, there has only been one game where the Bison were outside of that(UNI). According to Sagarin, "they are who we(the computer) thought they were." UNI still a top-10 team according to Predictor. The grouping is really interesting between YSU, SDSU, MSU & SIU. Less than half a point separates the entire group. Sagarin predicts a big blowout next weekend.



Sagarin's Week 13 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 29	North Dakota State	79.90					
 25	Kansas State		81.91	   -5.98       3.00	 8.98		
 NA	Ferris State		   NA	      NA      46.00	   NA		
224	Delaware State		35.80	   48.07      51.00	 2.93		
100	South Dakota State	61.74	   14.19      20.00	 5.81		
 83	Northern Iowa		64.57	   19.30       1.00    -18.30		
102	Missouri State		61.67	   22.20      15.00	-7.20		
105	Southern Illinois	61.47	   14.46      21.00	 6.54		
199	Indiana State		39.97	   35.96      46.00	10.04		
123	Illinois State		57.83	   26.04      18.00	-8.04		
 98	Youngstown State	61.90	   14.03      18.00	 3.97		
166	South Dakota		50.01	   33.86				
							
162	Western Illinois	50.64					
						Total Diff:	 4.73
	Home			 3.97

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

 1   29  North Dakota State
 2   45  Eastern Illinois
 3   69  SE Louisiana
 4   72  Villanova
 5   73  Towson
 6   76  Eastern Washington
 7   81  William & Mary
 8   83  Northern Iowa
 9   86  Montana
10   90  Maine
11   93  Sam Houston State
12   96  McNeese State
13   97  Princeton
14   98  Youngstown State
15  100  South Dakota State
16  102  Missouri State
17  105  Southern Illinois
18  111  Coastal Carolina
19  114  Harvard
20  115  Cal Poly
21  116  Jacksonville State
22  119  Old Dominion
23  121  Bethune-Cookman
24  122  New Hampshire
25  123  Illinois State

Sagarin Predictor Top-7 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	59.35
2.  Colonial	56.14
3.  Ohio Valley 52.45
4.  Southland	52.43
5.  Ivy League	50.52
6.  Big Sky	49.45
7.  Southern	48.41

The Big Sky is who we thought they were.

[THEsocalledfan]

The Big Sky is who we thought they were.

Am I the only one who finds it quite humorous that they had a chance to take NDSU when they moved up, but passed, then got UN_ instead? Not exactly a "smooth move."

[Tatanka]

Am I the only one who finds it quite humorous that they had a chance to take NDSU when they moved up, but passed, then got UN_ instead? Not exactly a "smooth move."

One could argue un_ is not a threat to the perennial powers. NDSU would have been / is.

[Hammerhead]

I think the Big Sky knew what they were doing when they said no to NDSU and SDSU.

Am I the only one who finds it quite humorous that they had a chance to take NDSU when they moved up, but passed, then got UN_ instead? Not exactly a "smooth move."