Sagarin says

[mnriverbison]

I probably won't continue to post these stats here anymore beyond today,

Fair enough as I'm sure it is a chore, but if you are stopping because you think nobody cares that is a mistake. I love this stuff and rarely post on it because I have nothing useful to add.

[mnriverbison]

I love this stuff and rarely post on it because I have nothing useful to add.

With that said I love this stuff not because I understand Sagarin (or anyone else's) methodology, but just that an impartial and unbiased observer of objective data (compared to polls which are waaaaay too biased by many things like program history, preseason predictions, and much other BS) like Danny Sagarin's formula has us ranked right in there with so many big name programs. That is cool stuff. Because of scholly depth I don't see us lasting long in a tourney like the hoops one but in round 1 it sure looks like we'd go toe to toe with all but the major contenders. How cool is that?

[JDZ]

I probably won't continue to post these stats here anymore beyond today... I plan to continue this analysis through the end of the season

Like mnriver said, if you are doing the analysis anyway, by all means, post it.

[Green1]

I hope you reconsider and continue to post here. Interesting stuff!

[BismarckBisonFan]

I hope you reconsider and continue to post here. Interesting stuff!

Agree please keep posting. Data doesn't lie.

[thebigund]

it sure looks like we'd go toe to toe with all but the major contenders. How cool is that?

Sounds pretty kewl, does that include a moral victory for holding a team below their average point margin?

[TransAmBison]

Sounds pretty kewl, does that include a moral victory for holding a team below their average point margin?

It's no victory over Northern Colorado...

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (4.11 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:


YSU 83.4% (+2.6 percentage points from last week)
USD 99.2% (+0.4)


11-0 82.7% (+5.1)
10-1 17.2% (-4.8)
9-2 0.1% (-0.3)


Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.


Playoffs:

Sagarin gives NDSU a 55.7% chance of winning the SportsNetwork bracket.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
Montana 82.9% (San Diego 17.1%)
#8 SE Louisiana 91.7% (Tennessee State 5.8%)
#4 Maine 43.3% (#5 Sam Houston St. 35.0%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 66.2% (#3 E. Washington 14.7%)

[bisonaudit]

CUSA 59.82 (-0.29 from last week)
MVFC 59.24 (+1.13)
MAC 58.72 (-1.10)
Sn Blt 58.08 (-0.13)

[Tatanka]

Sounds pretty kewl, does that include a moral victory for holding a team below their average point margin?

And a Gatorade bath to boot. I'm not familiar with protocol, so I may have the order wrong.


Actually, well played. Immediately when I read that post, I knew your reply would be swift and pretty much spot on.