Sagarin says

[THEsocalledfan]

Still ranked ahead of the Gophers.

And Big Red.....

[RadioBison]

--> (44.3%) 47 games - Sagarin correctly predicted the winner

Am I reading correctly that Sagarin only predicted the actual winner in 47 out of 106 games? My homemade system was at about 74% last week, and I expect Sagarin to do better than that.

[bisonaudit]

Am I reading correctly that Sagarin only predicted the actual winner in 47 out of 106 games? My homemade system was at about 74% last week, and I expect Sagarin to do better than that.

That doesn't seem right. I'd believe that in one week AGS. But not straight up. I picked 10 college games a week over 10 weeks for three years in a contest against maybe 100 others using Sagarin for every pick and finished on the podium at seasons end twice. Straight up should be competitive with your number in my experience

[Mayville Bison]

Am I reading correctly that Sagarin only predicted the actual winner in 47 out of 106 games? My homemade system was at about 74% last week, and I expect Sagarin to do better than that.

That doesn't seem right. I'd believe that in one week AGS. But not straight up. I picked 10 college games a week over 10 weeks for three years in a contest against maybe 100 others using Sagarin for every pick and finished in the podium at seasons end twice. Straight up should be competitive with your number in my experience

I read it as predicted the winner vs. the spread. Not sure if that's factored into your discussion.

[THEsocalledfan]

That doesn't seem right. I'd believe that in one week AGS. But not straight up. I picked 10 college games a week over 10 weeks for three years in a contest against maybe 100 others using Sagarin for every pick and finished in the podium at seasons end twice. Straight up should be competitive with your number in my experience

Not living in Vegas, I don't do much sports betting, however, Audit, you have any idea how one would do just using Sagarin to pick 10 college games each week?

[bisonaudit]

Not living in Vegas, I don't do much sports betting, however, Audit, you have any idea how one would do just using Sagarin to pick 10 college games each week?

Well, just for shits and giggles in the Week 8 thread, after NDSUStudent posted the lines for the Top 25 FCS games, I used Sagarin to decide which ones to bet and how much to wager. Assuming -120, I returned 20% that week.

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/show...highlight=week

Extremely small sample and I have no idea if it would hold up over time, but it does illustrate some important concepts:

1) If I'd have sized the bets equally the return would have decreased from 20% to 13%. Bet sizing is important.

2) There were 20 games on the board that week. Sagarin only liked 13 of them. Of the 13 plays, Sagarin won 8 and lost 5. Sagarin was 4 and 3 on the games that it wasn't confident enough in to wager. Playing all the games would have further reduced the return from 13% to 10%. Game selection is important.

[THEsocalledfan]

Well, just for shits and giggles in the Week 8 thread, after NDSUStudent posted the lines for the Top 25 FCS games, I used Sagarin to decide which ones to bet and how much to wager. Assuming -120, I returned 20% that week.

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/show...highlight=week

Extremely small sample and I have no idea if it would hold up over time, but it does illustrate some important concepts:

1) If I'd have sized the bets equally the return would have decreased from 20% to 13%. Bet sizing is important.

2) There were 20 games on the board that week. Sagarin only liked 13 of them. Of the 13 plays, Sagarin won 8 and lost 5. Sagarin was 4 and 3 on the games that it wasn't confident enough in to wager. Playing all the games would have further reduced the return from 13% to 10%. Game selection is important.

So, basically, were you looking at games where the spread was out of proportion to the Sagarin predictor? Then, perhaps bet more on games that have a bigger discrepancy?

[thebootfitter]

Am I reading correctly that Sagarin only predicted the actual winner in 47 out of 106 games? My homemade system was at about 74% last week, and I expect Sagarin to do better than that.

I was surprised too. I will go back to double check to be sure. But yes, per my analysis, Sagarin only predicted the winner straight up 44% of the time. By "actual spread," I meant the actual difference of points on the board at the end of the game. Perhaps I misused the term.

[bisonaudit]

So, basically, were you looking at games where the spread was out of proportion to the Sagarin predictor? Then, perhaps bet more on games that have a bigger discrepancy?

Correct, the more distance between Sagarin's prediction of the result and the line the bigger the wager.

Examples from Week 8:

NDSU -9 @ S Ill: NDSU - S Ill - Home Field = 75.41 - 64.07 - 3.66 = 7.68 NDSU favored per Sagarin. The spread is -9 so Sagarin preferred a wager on S Ill, but only by 1.32 points. That's not enough at -120. No wager.

McNeese St -1.5 v. SHSU: This line surprised a lot of people but Sagarin liked McNeese even more than Vegas. On a neutral field (65.31 - 59.95) by 5.36. But this was at home and McNeese didn't play the week before so Sagarin actually made McNeese an 11.63 point favorite, more than a 10 point edge. The juiciest line of the week. Play 5 units on McNeese. Winner.

Tenn-Martin +3.5 v. Tenn St: Sagarin agreed that Tenn-Martin was the underdog but not by 3.5 points, just 0.82. That 2.68 point edge was just enough to overcome the vig. Play 1 unit on Tenn-Martin. Loser.

I cherry picked the examples. You can see on the other thread that I was a loser on the 3 and 4 unit plays.

[SamsRams]

McNeese St -1.5 v. SHSU: This line surprised a lot of people but Sagarin liked McNeese even more than Vegas.
.

Not trying to be a smart ass, but Vegas never had a line on this game and they don't put lines on fcs vs fcs regular season games.