MAC 59.83 (-0.18 from last week)
CUSA 59.91 (=0.00)
Sn Blt 58.45 (-0.24)
MVFC 57.40 (=0.00)
MAC 59.83 (-0.18 from last week)
CUSA 59.91 (=0.00)
Sn Blt 58.45 (-0.24)
MVFC 57.40 (=0.00)
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
NDSU's 77.68 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (=0)
5th in the Big Ten (+3)
7th in the Big 12 (+1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (=0)
10th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Sagarin's numbers were calculated early this week. NDSU jumps up a small margin from 77.68 to 77.8 (#38) even in a bye week. I suspect this is mostly due to Kansas State moving up to the top 30 with their convincing win over Iowa State.
If anyone is interested, I have started an informal analysis comparing Sagarin Predictor scores against the actual results from all DI games. I posted my initial results here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/show...l-scores/page4 Highlights are below as well.
Out of 106 games between DI opponents:
--> Average difference between Sagarin's predicted spread and the actual spread is only 1.3 points, with a standard deviation of 15 points.
--> (44.3%) 47 games - Sagarin correctly predicted the winner
--> (7.5%) 8 games were within 2 points of Sagarin's predictions in either direction
--> (15.1%) 16 games were between 2 & 5 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (24.5%) 26 games were between 5 & 10 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (23.6%) 25 games were between 10 & 15 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (29.2%) 31 games were greater than 15 points off Sagarin's predictions
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Some shakeups in the FCS top-25. KState cracks the overall top-30 so we get a little boost. UNI continues their slow fall. Their rating is too high for where they are as a team right now, but that's to be expected in a computer model that looks at the entire season for data.
Sagarin's Week 11 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff 38 North Dakota State 77.80 27 Kansas State 82.05 -7.84 3.00 10.84 NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA 229 Delaware State 33.18 48.21 51.00 2.79 120 South Dakota State 58.81 15.40 20.00 4.60 90 Northern Iowa 63.69 17.70 1.00 -16.70 110 Missouri State 59.72 21.67 15.00 -6.67 107 Southern Illinois 60.61 13.60 21.00 7.40 192 Indiana State 43.67 30.54 46.00 15.46 140 Illinois State 55.56 25.83 96 Youngstown State 62.46 11.75 161 South Dakota 50.62 30.77 166 Western Illinois 48.98 Total Diff: 17.72 Home 3.59
Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS ConferencesCode:1 38 North Dakota State 2 61 Eastern Illinois 3 81 Montana 4 82 Eastern Washington 5 84 Towson 6 87 SE Louisiana 7 88 William & Mary 8 89 Villanova 9 90 Northern Iowa 10 96 Youngstown State 11 97 Montana State 12 105 Maine 13 107 Southern Illinois 14 108 McNeese State 15 109 Sam Houston State 16 110 Missouri State 17 113 Samford 18 114 Old Dominion 19 115 Eastern Kentucky 20 116 Coastal Carolina 21 119 Chattanooga 22 120 South Dakota State 23 122 Cal Poly 24 123 Bethune-Cookman 25 127 New Hampshire
Code:1. MVFC 58.11 2. Colonial 55.79 3. Big Sky 51.75 4. Southland 51.51 5. Ohio Valley 50.86 6. Southern 50.55
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.59 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Ill St 98.2% (-0.7 percentage points from last week)
YSU 80.8% (+1.5)
USD 98.8% (-0.2)
11-0 77.6% (+0.7)
10-1 22.0% (-0.9)
9-2 0.4% (+0.2)
8-3 0.004%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Playoffs:
Sagarin gives NDSU a 57.2% chance of winning the SportsNetwork bracket.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
Montana 91.7% (San Diego 8.3%)
#8 Towson 76.1% (SE Louisiana 15.4%)
#4 Maine 44.8% (#5 Sam Houston St. 30.4%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 61.8% (#3 E. Washington 25.2%)
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
CUSA 60.11 (+0.12 from last week)
MAC 59.82 (=0.00)
Sn Blt 58.20 (-0.20)
MVFC 58.11 (+0.71)
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
NDSU's 77.8 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
5th in the ACC (+1)
4th in the Big Ten (+1)
7th in the Big 12 (=0)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (=0)
10th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Still ranked ahead of the Gophers.![]()