Sagarin says

[bisonaudit]

MAC 59.83 (-0.18 from last week)
CUSA 59.91 (=0.00)
Sn Blt 58.45 (-0.24)
MVFC 57.40 (=0.00)

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 77.68 would rank:

3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (=0)
5th in the Big Ten (+3)
7th in the Big 12 (+1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (=0)
10th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin's numbers were calculated early this week. NDSU jumps up a small margin from 77.68 to 77.8 (#38) even in a bye week. I suspect this is mostly due to Kansas State moving up to the top 30 with their convincing win over Iowa State.

If anyone is interested, I have started an informal analysis comparing Sagarin Predictor scores against the actual results from all DI games. I posted my initial results here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/show...l-scores/page4 Highlights are below as well.

Out of 106 games between DI opponents:
--> Average difference between Sagarin's predicted spread and the actual spread is only 1.3 points, with a standard deviation of 15 points.
--> (44.3%) 47 games - Sagarin correctly predicted the winner
--> (7.5%) 8 games were within 2 points of Sagarin's predictions in either direction
--> (15.1%) 16 games were between 2 & 5 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (24.5%) 26 games were between 5 & 10 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (23.6%) 25 games were between 10 & 15 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (29.2%) 31 games were greater than 15 points off Sagarin's predictions

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin's numbers were calculated early this week. NDSU jumps up a small margin from 77.68 to 77.8 (#38) even in a bye week. I suspect this is mostly due to Kansas State moving up to the top 30 with their convincing win over Iowa State.

If anyone is interested, I have started an informal analysis comparing Sagarin Predictor scores against the actual results from all DI games. I posted my initial results here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/show...l-scores/page4 Highlights are below as well.

Out of 106 games between DI opponents:
--> Average difference between Sagarin's predicted spread and the actual spread is only 1.3 points, with a standard deviation of 15 points.
--> (44.3%) 47 games - Sagarin correctly predicted the winner
--> (7.5%) 8 games were within 2 points of Sagarin's predictions in either direction
--> (15.1%) 16 games were between 2 & 5 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (24.5%) 26 games were between 5 & 10 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (23.6%) 25 games were between 10 & 15 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (29.2%) 31 games were greater than 15 points off Sagarin's predictions

The standard deviation makes a lot of sense. The historic standard deviation for Sagarin's NFL predictor is just under 14.

[thebootfitter]

The standard deviation makes a lot of sense. The historic standard deviation for Sagarin's NFL predictor is just under 14.

Intuitively, I would think that the NFL teams have to be better connected, since there are fewer teams and many of them play twice in a season. I guess the "any given Saturday/Sunday" factor is pretty significant, eh?

[Hammersmith]

Some shakeups in the FCS top-25. KState cracks the overall top-30 so we get a little boost. UNI continues their slow fall. Their rating is too high for where they are as a team right now, but that's to be expected in a computer model that looks at the entire season for data.


Sagarin's Week 11 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 38	North Dakota State	77.80					
 27	Kansas State		82.05	   -7.84       3.00	 10.84		
 NA	Ferris State		   NA	      NA      46.00	    NA		
229	Delaware State		33.18	   48.21      51.00	  2.79		
120	South Dakota State	58.81	   15.40      20.00	  4.60		
 90	Northern Iowa		63.69	   17.70       1.00	-16.70		
110	Missouri State		59.72	   21.67      15.00	 -6.67		
107	Southern Illinois	60.61	   13.60      21.00	  7.40		
192	Indiana State		43.67	   30.54      46.00	 15.46		
140	Illinois State		55.56	   25.83				
 96	Youngstown State	62.46	   11.75				
161	South Dakota		50.62	   30.77				
							
166	Western Illinois	48.98					
						Total Diff:	 17.72
	Home			 3.59

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

 1   38  North Dakota State
 2   61  Eastern Illinois
 3   81  Montana
 4   82  Eastern Washington
 5   84  Towson
 6   87  SE Louisiana
 7   88  William & Mary
 8   89  Villanova
 9   90  Northern Iowa
10   96  Youngstown State
11   97  Montana State
12  105  Maine
13  107  Southern Illinois
14  108  McNeese State
15  109  Sam Houston State
16  110  Missouri State
17  113  Samford
18  114  Old Dominion
19  115  Eastern Kentucky
20  116  Coastal Carolina
21  119  Chattanooga
22  120  South Dakota State
23  122  Cal Poly
24  123  Bethune-Cookman
25  127  New Hampshire

Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	58.11
2.  Colonial	55.79
3.  Big Sky	51.75
4.  Southland	51.51
5.  Ohio Valley 50.86
6.  Southern	50.55

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.59 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:


Ill St 98.2% (-0.7 percentage points from last week)
YSU 80.8% (+1.5)
USD 98.8% (-0.2)



11-0 77.6% (+0.7)
10-1 22.0% (-0.9)
9-2 0.4% (+0.2)
8-3 0.004%



Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

Playoffs:

Sagarin gives NDSU a 57.2% chance of winning the SportsNetwork bracket.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
Montana 91.7% (San Diego 8.3%)
#8 Towson 76.1% (SE Louisiana 15.4%)
#4 Maine 44.8% (#5 Sam Houston St. 30.4%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 61.8% (#3 E. Washington 25.2%)

[bisonaudit]

CUSA 60.11 (+0.12 from last week)
MAC 59.82 (=0.00)
Sn Blt 58.20 (-0.20)
MVFC 58.11 (+0.71)

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 77.8 would rank:

3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
5th in the ACC (+1)
4th in the Big Ten (+1)
7th in the Big 12 (=0)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (=0)
10th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

Still ranked ahead of the Gophers.