And Big Red.....Quote:
Originally Posted by LITTLEGUYSINGREEN
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And Big Red.....Quote:
Originally Posted by LITTLEGUYSINGREEN
Am I reading correctly that Sagarin only predicted the actual winner in 47 out of 106 games? My homemade system was at about 74% last week, and I expect Sagarin to do better than that.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
That doesn't seem right. I'd believe that in one week AGS. But not straight up. I picked 10 college games a week over 10 weeks for three years in a contest against maybe 100 others using Sagarin for every pick and finished on the podium at seasons end twice. Straight up should be competitive with your number in my experienceQuote:
Originally Posted by RadioBison
Quote:
Originally Posted by RadioBison
I read it as predicted the winner vs. the spread. Not sure if that's factored into your discussion.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Not living in Vegas, I don't do much sports betting, however, Audit, you have any idea how one would do just using Sagarin to pick 10 college games each week?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Well, just for shits and giggles in the Week 8 thread, after NDSUStudent posted the lines for the Top 25 FCS games, I used Sagarin to decide which ones to bet and how much to wager. Assuming -120, I returned 20% that week.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
http://www.bisonville.com/forum/show...highlight=week
Extremely small sample and I have no idea if it would hold up over time, but it does illustrate some important concepts:
1) If I'd have sized the bets equally the return would have decreased from 20% to 13%. Bet sizing is important.
2) There were 20 games on the board that week. Sagarin only liked 13 of them. Of the 13 plays, Sagarin won 8 and lost 5. Sagarin was 4 and 3 on the games that it wasn't confident enough in to wager. Playing all the games would have further reduced the return from 13% to 10%. Game selection is important.
So, basically, were you looking at games where the spread was out of proportion to the Sagarin predictor? Then, perhaps bet more on games that have a bigger discrepancy?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I was surprised too. I will go back to double check to be sure. But yes, per my analysis, Sagarin only predicted the winner straight up 44% of the time. By "actual spread," I meant the actual difference of points on the board at the end of the game. Perhaps I misused the term.Quote:
Originally Posted by RadioBison
Correct, the more distance between Sagarin's prediction of the result and the line the bigger the wager.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Examples from Week 8:
NDSU -9 @ S Ill: NDSU - S Ill - Home Field = 75.41 - 64.07 - 3.66 = 7.68 NDSU favored per Sagarin. The spread is -9 so Sagarin preferred a wager on S Ill, but only by 1.32 points. That's not enough at -120. No wager.
McNeese St -1.5 v. SHSU: This line surprised a lot of people but Sagarin liked McNeese even more than Vegas. On a neutral field (65.31 - 59.95) by 5.36. But this was at home and McNeese didn't play the week before so Sagarin actually made McNeese an 11.63 point favorite, more than a 10 point edge. The juiciest line of the week. Play 5 units on McNeese. Winner.
Tenn-Martin +3.5 v. Tenn St: Sagarin agreed that Tenn-Martin was the underdog but not by 3.5 points, just 0.82. That 2.68 point edge was just enough to overcome the vig. Play 1 unit on Tenn-Martin. Loser.
I cherry picked the examples. You can see on the other thread that I was a loser on the 3 and 4 unit plays.
Not trying to be a smart ass, but Vegas never had a line on this game and they don't put lines on fcs vs fcs regular season games.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit