Sagarin says

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

A very simplistic explanation is to look how a team performs compared to how they were expected to perform. Our rating and UNI's predicted about a 9 point NDSU win. Since we only won by 1 point, we weren't going to improve our ranking; maybe slip a tiny bit. On the other hand, I doubt KState was predicted to only lose by 4 points(I didn't look at last week's rankings to that degree, so I can't be certain). Since KState outperformed the expectation, they were likely to move up. Also realize that 77.69 and 77.27 are very, very close, and it doesn't take much to shift a team a spot or four.

The complete explanation is a whole lot more complicated and would require knowledge of the particulars of Sagarin's computer model. I don't have that knowledge or the understanding to comprehend it if I did. Sorry.

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I guess after years of watching football I prefer my gut hunch over point spread but that isn't scientific and definitely can't be systemized. I guess that is one of the great things about football. There are so many variables in a given game from play books, to matchups, to injuries, to weather, to training, to the luck of the bounce. Best sport in the world.

sagarin is still several week from being well connected, it usually isn't until the first BCS standings are announced

The Massey Ratings has us at #24 in the nation.

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Originally Posted by ZHerd

I guess after years of watching football I prefer my gut hunch over point spread but that isn't scientific and definitely can't be systemized. I guess that is one of the great things about football. There are so many variables in a given game from play books, to matchups, to injuries, to weather, to training, to the luck of the bounce. Best sport in the world.

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Sounds like a recipe for financial freedom. Go for it!

Based on Sagarin's numbers (4.28 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Mo St 98.1% (+1.0 percentage points from last week)
S Ill 82.2% (+0.2)
Ind St 93.9% (+1.0)
Ill St 99.6% (-0.1)
YSU 80.3% (-1.9)
USD 99.4% (=0.0)



11-0 60.1% (+16.6)
10-1 33.5% (-6.8)
9-2 6.0% (-7.2)
8-3 0.4% (-1.5)
7-4 0.01% (-0.1)
6-5 0.0001%
5-6 0.0000001%


Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

CUSA 59.96 (-0.49 from last week)
MAC 59.88 (+0.09)
Sn Blt 58.91 (-0.21)
MVFC 56.76 (-0.40)

NDSU's 77.27 would rank:

3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (+1)
7th in the Big Ten (-1)
7th in the Big 12 (-1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
9th in the PAC 12 (=0)
9th in the SEC (+1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)

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Originally Posted by mnriverbison

Sounds like a recipe for financial freedom. Go for it!

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Right because football has so incredibly much in common with my finances

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Originally Posted by ZHerd

Right because football has so incredibly much in common with my finances

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Yeah, no one ever bets on football...

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Originally Posted by gotts

Yeah, no one ever bets on football...

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Oops right...and I thought my hair was brown