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Quote:
Originally Posted by X-Factor
SDSU isn't as good as the preseason rankings showed - maybe UN_s comeback wasn't as much of an abnormality as I thought. I don't expect UNI to have the same drop off, but injuries may say otherwise. Who are they playing the next few weeks?
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UNI has a huge game next week at home vs SIU.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Not too many changes this week. KState goes back over NDSU by a couple slots. NDSU is unchanged in rankings; UNI moves up the overall list. Conferences stay the same. Very little change in the top-25 makeup. YSU moves up, the Big Sky schools shift around. Top 4 remain unchanged. Still think last week was the shift to well-connected. Either that, or everyone did what they were supposed to do on Saturday. Sagarin says double digit wins from here on out. I may have to add the OVC to my conference list at some point; the gap between the Big Sky and Southern is about three times larger than the gap between the Southern and Ohio Valley. Scratch that last part, OVC moves ahead of SoCon. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.
Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
40 North Dakota State 77.27
38 Kansas State 77.67 -4.68 3.00 7.68
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
227 Delaware State 33.90 47.65 51.00 3.35
129 South Dakota State 57.28 15.71 20.00 4.29
51 Northern Iowa 74.13 7.42 1.00 -6.42
150 Missouri State 53.33 28.22
108 Southern Illinois 60.54 12.45
156 Indiana State 52.02 20.97
172 Illinois State 48.11 33.44
103 Youngstown State 61.46 11.53
176 South Dakota 47.32 34.23
167 Western Illinois 48.67
Total Diff: 8.90
Home 4.28
Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS ConferencesCode:1 40 North Dakota State
2 51 Northern Iowa
3 66 Eastern Illinois
4 78 Towson
5 84 McNeese State
6 85 Montana State
7 86 Villanova
8 87 Montana
9 95 Eastern Washington
10 98 William & Mary
11 102 Maine
12 103 Youngstown State
13 106 Georgia Southern
14 108 Southern Illinois
15 109 Sam Houston State
16 111 SE Louisiana
17 112 Old Dominion
18 116 Chattanooga
19 118 Samford
20 122 Richmond
21 125 Coastal Carolina
22 127 Harvard
23 129 South Dakota State
24 131 Portland State
25 133 Bethune-Cookman
Code:1. MVFC 56.76
2. Colonial 55.91
3. Southland 53.08
4. Big Sky 51.63
5. Ohio Valley 50.20
6. Southern 50.18
Wasn't the weather/field conditions extremely shitty for that game? Do I need to remind anyone of 'that" one game?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Quote:
Originally Posted by EndZoneQB
not sure what you are trying to get at. In the UN_ game, they abandoned what got them the lead. Against Nebraska, they pulled their guys because they didn't want to face injuries. Against us, they didn't even try to run the ball with their "all-world" running back. I don't know what happened yesterday but that should have been their game.
Looks to me coaching is preventing them from winning games. They have talent on that roster, just haven't seen it come together (sound familiar?)
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It is interesting that some of the SDSU fans have seen the light and realize their playing surface is garbage and are now demanding field turf.
Delta State ring a bell?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
I don't fully understand how sagarin works but K-state passing us when they do nothing but lose and we do nothing but win seems a bit ridiculous. I would better understand it if they were winning but they're not. How can strength of schedule be an accurate borometer if you lose? How do they know the Bison wouldnt beat the teams they lose to? Meanwhile we just beat a team that beat a Big 12 team that will very possibly beat K-State. Whatever
A very simplistic explanation is to look how a team performs compared to how they were expected to perform. Our rating and UNI's predicted about a 9 point NDSU win. Since we only won by 1 point, we weren't going to improve our ranking; maybe slip a tiny bit. On the other hand, I doubt KState was predicted to only lose by 4 points(I didn't look at last week's rankings to that degree, so I can't be certain). Since KState outperformed the expectation, they were likely to move up. Also realize that 77.69 and 77.27 are very, very close, and it doesn't take much to shift a team a spot or four.Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
The complete explanation is a whole lot more complicated and would require knowledge of the particulars of Sagarin's computer model. I don't have that knowledge or the understanding to comprehend it if I did. Sorry.
Sagarin's models are all based on the concepts from the Elo system. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_systemQuote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
Any system that uses a predictive model uses bits and pieces of it, even mine.