Not South Dakota.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
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Not South Dakota.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
You forgot USD. So only 90% of the MVFC finished in the FCS top-25.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Pretty sure I saw that on another thread. Anyone want to confirm? I believe Kramer only gave the Bison four days off.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonmike2
My predictions:
8:30 2Q - if ISU on D - first D-lineman with hands on hips
5:00 2Q - first ISU player goes down with cramps
10:00 3Q - if ISU on D - more hands on hips
7:30 3Q - second injury time out for ISU cramps
15:00 4Q - all ISU D-line w/ hands on hips - Crockett running for 8-15 yards per play; Morlock & Fraiser running 5-10 ypp.
Damn slackers......Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
except USD.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
And for some reason ISU took Today off too. Wow.
Well... At least they will be well rested.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonforever
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonforever
http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instanc...good%20400x400
Really??? Can't find a link. Do you have one?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonforever
Wait...so the MVFC finished ahead of every single G5 conference? Wow...Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Marshall is the only G5 team ranked higher than NDSU and Notre Dame is the only independent ranked higher (by one spot) than NDSU.Quote:
Originally Posted by DePereBisonFan
And Marshall is only a few spots higher at 24 vs 32 for NDSU. Their record is nearly identical at 13-1 vs our 14-1, and their strength of schedule metric is almost the same as well at 59.05 vs 59.04.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
I think Brock Spack mentions the day off (I think was Monday) in a story Found in Monday hot links on bison media blog, but mobile version does not show exact article link for copy paste.Quote:
Originally Posted by cbline
Pantograph.com
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
You say that better than anyone else on this board. I wish I had that talent.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
I think Dom and Kolpack mentioned it in there last video blog. It could of been Monday off. I watched the blog today and assumed they were talking about today.Quote:
Originally Posted by cbline
I figured he'd just wait to do one after tonight's game, but Sagarin did an update after the game on Saturday. We're at #32 now (79.78). Very minimal change from last week. I'm curious to see how much tonight's game affects our final rating for this season.
I think #32, is probably about dead right on the quality of this team. It would be really cool is anyone could comb back through this thread and put up how NDSU finished in 2011, 12, 13, and 14 for comparison's sake. Of course, in past years, use the predictor if you are willing to dig them out.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
I'm not at my computer, or I'd do it right now, but Sagarin has archives from past years on his site. Pretty easy to look up on there if you're so inclined.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
FWIW - Massey has us at #35.
Last year's Sagarin was 17.
Just ran national sports rankings.com. 2014(home) vs 2013 Bison teams. 2013 won 58 of 100 with a score of 22-20
Year Predictor Rank FCS Rank 2004 61.09 111 20 2005 65.85 82 5 2006 69.82 64 2 2007 68.11 71 3 2008 57.96 124 22 2009 52.19 145 33 2010 62.42 99 12 2011 75.66 44 1 2012 79.53 32 1 2013 84.55 22 1 2014 77.92 33 1
Nice numbers! Wow! Actually the thing that strikes me most is NDSU's worst DI season (2009) the Sagarin FCS rank of 33 (out of about 125 teams) is not all that bad. I know I thought that year was terrible. We as fans are truly blessed to have such a great football program to follow.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I picked 2006, 2007, and 2010 to now. I need to learn how to format tables in HTML. In the meantime, I hope this is readable.
Columns represent: Season, Sagarin Rating, Rank in all DI, Rank in FCS, Notable FCS peers and their Sagarin Rating.
Year Score DI AA - FCSPeers Rating
2006 71.81 57 2 - App-1 73.36
2007 68.80 71 4 - App-1 75.73
2010 63.66 94 9 - Del-1 72.88
2011 46.60 37 1 - Sam-2 70.59
2012 77.94 35 1 - Sam-2 70.81
2013 86.38 17 1 - EIU-2 75.23
2014 79.78 32 1 - ISUr-2 75.17
And it looks like BisonAudit beat me to it while I was trying to get the columns to line up. Curiously, some of our numbers are off, though. Not sure why. They're in the same ballpark. I took my figures from Sagarin's archives, which I believe represent his final rankings of each respective season.
Ahh... I think he took the "Predictor" score while I used the "Rating." That would explain the difference.
I think audit is using the Predictor column while you're using the combined rating.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
I pulled mine from the USA Today site.
Edit: confirmed, rating v. predictor. Classic Sagarin issue.
Average FCS ranking = #9 and mean ranking = #3.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
LOL @ Big Fluffy.
Did I get that right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Answer Guy
Close. Use the space bar less...
Difficult. As sticky as his keyboard is, it's either none or a whole lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatanka
Have you been letting Izzy use your computer???????Quote:
Originally Posted by LikeMothers
Sagarin's Final Results
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:
Rank Team Sagarin Predict Result Diff
32 North Dakota State 79.73
105 Iowa State 61.42 +15.54 +20.00 +4.46
197 Weber State 42.22 +34.74 +17.00 -17.74
233 Incarnate Word 26.25 +56.25 +58.00 +1.75
127 Montana 56.17 +26.33 +12.00 -14.33
118 Western Illinois 57.61 +19.35 +7.00 -12.35
108 Southern Illinois 60.65 +21.85 +28.00 +6.15
92 Indiana State 63.91 +18.59 +17.00 -1.59
175 South Dakota 46.46 +30.50 +40.00 +9.50
67 South Dakota State 69.09 +13.41 +20.00 +6.59
55 Northern Iowa 72.15 +4.81 -20.00 -24.81
113 Missouri State 58.60 +18.36 +35.00 +16.64
110 Youngstown State 60.15 +22.35 +24.00 +1.65
67 South Dakota State 69.09 +13.41 +3.00 -10.41
68 Coastal Carolina 68.49 +14.01 +7.00 -7.01
76 New Hampshire 67.58 +12.15 +32.00 +19.85
41 Illinois State 75.14 +4.59 +2.00 -2.59
Total Diff: -21.65
Home Field 2.77
Sagarin Conference RankingCode:
Rank SagRank RATING Team SOS SOSRank Conference
1 32 79.73 North Dakota State 59.98 112 Missouri Valley
2 41 75.14 Illinois State 60.19 111 Missouri Valley
3 55 72.15 Northern Iowa 61.16 106 Missouri Valley
4 67 69.09 South Dakota State 63.65 82 Missouri Valley
5 68 68.49 Coastal Carolina 48.48 180 Big South
6 70 68.33 Chattanooga 53.34 147 Southern
7 76 67.58 New Hampshire 50.27 171 Colonial
8 85 65.35 Jacksonville State 50.17 172 Ohio Valley
9 92 63.91 Indiana State 63.32 91 Missouri Valley
10 93 63.51 Eastern Washington 51.35 165 Big Sky
11 94 63.43 Sam Houston State 54.76 142 Southland
12 95 63.03 Harvard 38.72 227 Ivy League
13 96 62.94 Villanova 49.30 174 Colonial
14 100 62.29 SE Louisiana 45.57 196 Southland
15 103 61.66 Liberty 55.60 140 Big South
16 106 61.34 Samford 56.64 135 Southern
17 108 60.65 Southern Illinois 61.76 103 Missouri Valley
18 109 60.32 Fordham 43.07 211 Patriot
19 110 60.15 Youngstown State 57.80 133 Missouri Valley
20 113 58.60 Missouri State 63.51 85 Missouri Valley
21 114 58.53 Idaho State 51.78 157 Big Sky
22 118 57.61 Western Illinois 64.37 76 Missouri Valley
23 122 56.76 Richmond 50.38 170 Colonial
24 124 56.56 Charleston Southern 51.75 158 Big South
25 127 56.17 Montana 49.15 176 Big Sky
Code:
Conference CMean ConfMax NDSU
SEC 84.90 97.42 12
PAC-12 77.73 95.71 7
BIG 12 76.22 99.61 5
ACC 74.62 87.25 5
BIG TEN 74.17 100.81 5
I-A INDEPENDENTS 68.49 79.78 2
MISSOURI VALLEY 64.12 79.73 1
MWC 61.57 77.33 1
CONFERENCE USA 61.27 82.42 2
AMERICAN ATHLETIC 60.88 76.15 1
MAC 56.18 68.15 1
SUN BELT 55.95 69.55 1
BIG SOUTH 52.56 68.49 1
SOUTHERN 50.54 68.33 1
COLONIAL 48.11 67.58 1
SOUTHLAND 47.11 63.43 1
BIG SKY 46.47 63.51 1
OHIO VALLEY 45.52 65.35 1
I-AA INDEPENDENTS 44.63 44.63 1
PATRIOT 44.45 60.32 1
NORTHEAST 42.68 52.65 1
IVY LEAGUE 39.84 63.03 1
MID-EASTERN 36.13 49.96 1
SWAC 31.69 50.72 1
PIONEER 24.28 43.46 1
LOL@Big Fluffy
Sent from somewhere on teh intarwebs
Year Predictor Rank FCS Rank 2004 61.09 111 20 2005 65.85 82 5 2006 69.82 64 2 2007 68.11 71 3 2008 57.96 124 22 2009 52.19 145 33 2010 62.42 99 12 2011 75.66 44 1 2012 79.53 32 1 2013 84.55 22 1 2014 77.86 34 1
The final AP poll is out and I noticed that NDSU did not get a vote. I know we got a lot last year being undefeated and having a strong SOS but I thought that one voter always gives the FCS champ a vote. Oh well, not that it matters, just thought it was interresting.
Votes during regular season this year are far better than pity votes at the end...IMHOQuote:
Originally Posted by Bison03
I am not a professional like Hammer, Bootfitter and Audit, but I was wondering how each playoff run compared Sagarin wise. I averaged out all 4 opponents numbers. Perhaps there is a better statistical way to figure it out, but I'm just a caveman.
Code:2014
RANK TEAM RATING PRED PRED RANK FCS RANK
32 North Dakota State 79.73 77.86 34 1
41 Illinois State 75.14 73.72 47 2
67 South Dakota State 69.09 67.43 73 4
68 Coastal Carolina 68.49 69.28 66 5
94 Sam Houston State 63.43 62.75 97 11
OPP AVG
67.50 69.04 74.50 67.36 5.50
Code:2013
RANK TEAM RATING PRED PRED RANK FCS RANK
17 North Dakota State 86.38 84.55 22 1
66 Towson 69.79 67.70 70 3
89 New Hampshire 64.33 63.22 95 7
96 Coastal Carolina 62.76 61.38 105 11
147 Furman 52.86 52.61 150 37
OPP AVG
99.50 62.44 105.00 61.23 14.50
Code:2012
RANK TEAM RATING PRED PRED RANK FCS RANK
35 North Dakota State 77.94 79.53 32 1
63 Sam Houston State 70.81 71.97 61 2
72 Georgia Southern 68.44 69.09 67 3
79 South Dakota State 66.59 65.45 81 4
96 Wofford 63.70 64.08 88 10
OPP AVG
77.50 67.39 79.00 66.62 4.75
Code:2011
RANK TEAM RATING PRED PRED RANK FCS RANK
37 North Dakota State 76.60 75.66 44 1
62 Sam Houston State 70.59 69.31 71 2
81 Georgia Southern 67.24 66.13 82 5
106 Lehigh 61.67 59.03 118 8
122 James Madison 59.09 58.24 120 18
OPP AVG
92.75 64.65 97.75 63.18 8.25
Bison finished the season with the best record in all Division 1. No one else had 15 wins or undefeated. That ought to count for something around here.
Just looked back, and last year the Bison were ranked #46 in the preseason, so we're starting down two notches. More room for personal growth this year, I guess.
Not very elegant but it's effective: There are only 2,048 (2^11) possible permutations of 11 game results (assuming no ties) so once I've got the % chance to win each game it's just brute force multiplication to calculate the chance of each of those permutations occurring and then summing them up to get the chance for each record. Once the table is set up excel updates the calculation in a blink. To complete this project you'll need: if/then, countif, sumif. Lock down those cell references ($) and copy/paste like it's going out of style.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
We're coming off a bye week and they aren't.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
We also have a bye week before SDSU and they don't.