Sagarin says

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's Final Results

						
Rank 	Team		       Sagarin	  Predict    Result      Diff  
 32	North Dakota State  	79.73			
105	Iowa State          	61.42	  +15.54     +20.00	 +4.46
197	Weber State         	42.22	  +34.74     +17.00	-17.74
233	Incarnate Word      	26.25	  +56.25     +58.00	 +1.75
127	Montana             	56.17	  +26.33     +12.00	-14.33
118	Western Illinois    	57.61	  +19.35      +7.00	-12.35
108	Southern Illinois   	60.65	  +21.85     +28.00	 +6.15
 92	Indiana State       	63.91	  +18.59     +17.00	 -1.59
175	South Dakota        	46.46	  +30.50     +40.00	 +9.50
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.41     +20.00	 +6.59
 55	Northern Iowa       	72.15	   +4.81     -20.00	-24.81
113	Missouri State      	58.60	  +18.36     +35.00	+16.64
110	Youngstown State    	60.15	  +22.35     +24.00	 +1.65
					
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.41      +3.00	-10.41
 68	Coastal Carolina    	68.49	  +14.01      +7.00	 -7.01
 76	New Hampshire       	67.58	  +12.15     +32.00	+19.85
 41	Illinois State      	75.14	   +4.59      +2.00	 -2.59
					
						Total Diff:	-21.65
	Home Field		 2.77

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team                     SOS  SOSRank   Conference     
 1	 32	79.73	North Dakota State  	59.98	112	Missouri Valley
 2	 41	75.14	Illinois State      	60.19	111	Missouri Valley
 3	 55	72.15	Northern Iowa       	61.16	106	Missouri Valley
 4	 67	69.09	South Dakota State  	63.65	 82	Missouri Valley
 5	 68	68.49	Coastal Carolina    	48.48	180	Big South
 6	 70	68.33	Chattanooga         	53.34	147	Southern
 7	 76	67.58	New Hampshire       	50.27	171	Colonial
 8	 85	65.35	Jacksonville State  	50.17	172	Ohio Valley
 9	 92	63.91	Indiana State       	63.32	 91	Missouri Valley
10	 93	63.51	Eastern Washington  	51.35	165	Big Sky
11	 94	63.43	Sam Houston State   	54.76	142	Southland
12	 95	63.03	Harvard             	38.72	227	Ivy League
13	 96	62.94	Villanova           	49.30	174	Colonial
14	100	62.29	SE Louisiana        	45.57	196	Southland
15	103	61.66	Liberty             	55.60	140	Big South
16	106	61.34	Samford             	56.64	135	Southern
17	108	60.65	Southern Illinois   	61.76	103	Missouri Valley
18	109	60.32	Fordham             	43.07	211	Patriot
19	110	60.15	Youngstown State    	57.80	133	Missouri Valley
20	113	58.60	Missouri State      	63.51	 85	Missouri Valley
21	114	58.53	Idaho State         	51.78	157	Big Sky
22	118	57.61	Western Illinois    	64.37	 76	Missouri Valley
23	122	56.76	Richmond            	50.38	170	Colonial
24	124	56.56	Charleston Southern 	51.75	158	Big South
25	127	56.17	Montana             	49.15	176	Big Sky

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
Conference 	        CMean  ConfMax	NDSU
SEC                 	84.90	97.42	 12
PAC-12              	77.73	95.71	  7
BIG 12              	76.22	99.61	  5
ACC                 	74.62	87.25	  5
BIG TEN             	74.17	100.81	  5
I-A INDEPENDENTS    	68.49	79.78	  2
MISSOURI VALLEY     	64.12	79.73	  1
MWC                 	61.57	77.33	  1
CONFERENCE USA      	61.27	82.42	  2
AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	60.88	76.15	  1
MAC                 	56.18	68.15	  1
SUN BELT            	55.95	69.55	  1
BIG SOUTH           	52.56	68.49	  1
SOUTHERN            	50.54	68.33	  1
COLONIAL            	48.11	67.58	  1
SOUTHLAND           	47.11	63.43	  1
BIG SKY             	46.47	63.51	  1
OHIO VALLEY         	45.52	65.35	  1
I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	44.63	44.63	  1
PATRIOT             	44.45	60.32	  1
NORTHEAST           	42.68	52.65	  1
IVY LEAGUE          	39.84	63.03	  1
MID-EASTERN         	36.13	49.96	  1
SWAC                	31.69	50.72	  1
PIONEER             	24.28	43.46	  1

[Tatanka]

LOL@Big Fluffy
Sent from somewhere on teh intarwebs

[bisonaudit]

Year	Predictor	Rank	FCS Rank
2004	61.09	111	20
2005	65.85	82	5
2006	69.82	64	2
2007	68.11	71	3
2008	57.96	124	22
2009	52.19	145	33
2010	62.42	99	12
2011	75.66	44	1
2012	79.53	32	1
2013	84.55	22	1
2014	77.86	34	1

[Bison03]

The final AP poll is out and I noticed that NDSU did not get a vote. I know we got a lot last year being undefeated and having a strong SOS but I thought that one voter always gives the FCS champ a vote. Oh well, not that it matters, just thought it was interresting.

[missingnumber7]

The final AP poll is out and I noticed that NDSU did not get a vote. I know we got a lot last year being undefeated and having a strong SOS but I thought that one voter always gives the FCS champ a vote. Oh well, not that it matters, just thought it was interresting.

Votes during regular season this year are far better than pity votes at the end...IMHO

[Wally]

I am not a professional like Hammer, Bootfitter and Audit, but I was wondering how each playoff run compared Sagarin wise. I averaged out all 4 opponents numbers. Perhaps there is a better statistical way to figure it out, but I'm just a caveman.

2014
RANK     TEAM            RATING  PRED   PRED RANK  FCS RANK
32  North Dakota State   79.73   77.86     34         1 

41  Illinois State       75.14   73.72     47         2
67  South Dakota State   69.09   67.43     73         4
68  Coastal Carolina     68.49   69.28     66         5
94  Sam Houston State    63.43   62.75     97         11

OPP AVG
67.50                    69.04   74.50     67.36      5.50

2013
RANK     TEAM            RATING  PRED   PRED RANK  FCS RANK
17  North Dakota State   86.38   84.55     22         1

66  Towson               69.79   67.70     70         3
89  New Hampshire        64.33   63.22     95         7
96  Coastal Carolina     62.76   61.38     105        11
147 Furman               52.86   52.61     150        37

OPP AVG
99.50                    62.44   105.00    61.23      14.50

2012
RANK     TEAM            RATING  PRED   PRED RANK  FCS RANK
35  North Dakota State   77.94   79.53     32         1

63  Sam Houston State    70.81   71.97     61         2
72  Georgia Southern     68.44   69.09     67         3
79  South Dakota State   66.59   65.45     81         4
96  Wofford              63.70   64.08     88         10

OPP AVG
77.50                    67.39   79.00     66.62      4.75

2011
RANK     TEAM            RATING  PRED   PRED RANK  FCS RANK
37  North Dakota State   76.60   75.66     44         1

62  Sam Houston State    70.59   69.31     71         2
81  Georgia Southern     67.24   66.13     82         5
106 Lehigh               61.67   59.03     118        8
122 James Madison        59.09   58.24     120        18

OPP AVG
92.75                    64.65   97.75     63.18      8.25

[SoCalBison]

Bison finished the season with the best record in all Division 1. No one else had 15 wins or undefeated. That ought to count for something around here.

[SoCalBison]

Just looked back, and last year the Bison were ranked #46 in the preseason, so we're starting down two notches. More room for personal growth this year, I guess.

[bisonaudit]

How do you calculate the 10-1, 9-2 etc. percentages when you don't know who we will lose too? Are you assuming we lose the 1 or 2 games etc to the best team(s)? Randomly pick the opponent who beats us?

Not very elegant but it's effective: There are only 2,048 (2^11) possible permutations of 11 game results (assuming no ties) so once I've got the % chance to win each game it's just brute force multiplication to calculate the chance of each of those permutations occurring and then summing them up to get the chance for each record. Once the table is set up excel updates the calculation in a blink. To complete this project you'll need: if/then, countif, sumif. Lock down those cell references ($) and copy/paste like it's going out of style.

[bisonaudit]

How can Weber be an easier game than UN_ when Weber is ranked 179 and UN_ is at 190?

We're coming off a bye week and they aren't.

We also have a bye week before SDSU and they don't.