Sagarin says

**Hammerhead** · 01-02-2015, 09:31 PM

I'm guessing the winner of the championship will get a bump with strength of schedule and get the #1 Sagarin rating.

**bisonaudit** · 01-02-2015, 09:45 PM

Originally Posted by westnodak93bison

So if OSU beats OR say 45-35 would that bump them over TCU?

I'd say it's more likely than not.

**bisonaudit** · 01-02-2015, 09:50 PM

Originally Posted by Hammerhead

I'm guessing the winner of the championship will get a bump with strength of schedule and get the #1 Sagarin rating.

SOS is more of an output than an input.

If Team A had a ranking of 70 and team B had a ranking of 90. Everything else equal, Team A's ranking doesn't not increase merely by playing an extremely good team. If Team B wins by 20, in fact, neither team's rankings change at all.

**TateMosersneighbor** · 01-06-2015, 03:47 PM

Originally Posted by thebootfitter

NDSU jumped up a bit this week to #33 in Sagarin's Rating (79.02). He has us as 5-pt favorites over ISU (assuming Frisco is considered a neutral field). Massey shows us beating ISUr 60% of the time, with a most likely score of 27-24. Those all seem in the right ballpark to me. The game could go either way, but I expect the intangibles to bring us out on top. See y'all in Frisco!

This game is scary. Someone get me off the scary ledge with some data.

**bisonaudit** · 01-06-2015, 03:49 PM

Team...................... Final
#5 Illinois State ------- 36.7%
#2 North Dakota State 63.3%

NDSU -4.5

**bisonaudit** · 01-06-2015, 03:58 PM

Using just the 42 MVFC games (including the playoff contests) for a Sagarin type analysis, I'm getting basically the same neutral field spread, NDSU -4.5 and an o/u of 52.

Ratings (conference rank):
Team . Overall . Offense . Defense
NDSU 14.43 (1) 4.03 (3) 10.41 (1)
Ill St .. 9.80 (2) 8.16 (1). 1.64 (4)

**Hammersmith** · 01-06-2015, 04:55 PM

One last update before the game. Personally, I think the Bison are going to win by more than 5 just because of ISU giving their players 8 days off. It's one of those things that will have an impact on the game that can't be quantified in the stats. Bison by 10-17.

Sagarin's Championship Prediction (updated)

Code:

						
Rank 	Team		       Sagarin	  Predict    Result      Diff  
 32	North Dakota State  	79.71			
105	Iowa State          	61.38	  +15.56     +20.00	 +4.44
197	Weber State         	42.31	  +34.63     +17.00	-17.63
233	Incarnate Word      	26.51	  +55.97     +58.00	 +2.03
127	Montana             	56.24	  +26.24     +12.00	-14.24
118	Western Illinois    	57.65	  +19.29      +7.00	-12.29
108	Southern Illinois   	60.69	  +21.79     +28.00	 +6.21
 92	Indiana State       	64.03	  +18.45     +17.00	 -1.45
175	South Dakota        	46.62	  +30.32     +40.00	 +9.68
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.39     +20.00	 +6.61
 55	Northern Iowa       	72.19	   +4.75     -20.00	-24.75
114	Missouri State      	58.59	  +18.35     +35.00	+16.65
110	Youngstown State    	60.29	  +22.19     +24.00	 +1.81
					
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.39      +3.00	-10.39
 68	Coastal Carolina    	68.46	  +14.02      +7.00	 -7.02
 94	Sam Houston State   	63.40	  +19.08     +32.00	+19.78
 41	Illinois State      	75.13	   +4.58		
					
						Total Diff:	-20.56
		Home Field	 2.77

Sagarin FCS Top-25

Code:

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team                     SOS  SOSRank   Conference     
 1	 32	79.71	North Dakota State  	59.04	123	Missouri Valley
 2	 41	75.13	Illinois State      	58.84	126	Missouri Valley 
 3	 55	72.19	Northern Iowa       	61.20	106	Missouri Valley
 4	 67	69.09	South Dakota State  	63.70	 82	Missouri Valley
 5	 68	68.46	Coastal Carolina    	48.47	180	Big South
 6	 70	68.29	Chattanooga         	53.30	147	Southern
 7	 77	67.49	New Hampshire       	50.27	171	Colonial
 8	 84	65.24	Jacksonville State  	50.09	172	Ohio Valley
 9	 92	64.03	Indiana State       	63.31	 89	Missouri Valley
10	 93	63.63	Eastern Washington  	51.42	163	Big Sky
11	 94	63.40	Sam Houston State   	54.78	142	Southland
12	 95	63.08	Harvard             	38.73	227	Ivy League
13	 98	62.93	Villanova           	49.30	174	Colonial
14	100	62.32	SE Louisiana        	45.59	196	Southland
15	103	61.66	Liberty             	55.60	140	Big South
16	106	61.27	Samford             	56.59	135	Southern
17	108	60.69	Southern Illinois   	61.80	103	Missouri Valley
18	109	60.31	Fordham             	43.07	211	Patriot
19	110	60.29	Youngstown State    	57.79	132	Missouri Valley
20	113	58.61	Idaho State         	51.85	155	Big Sky
21	114	58.59	Missouri State      	63.56	 85	Missouri Valley
22	118	57.65	Western Illinois    	64.40	 76	Missouri Valley
23	122	56.79	Richmond            	50.37	170	Colonial
24	124	56.55	Charleston Southern 	51.73	159	Big South
25	127	56.24	Montana             	49.23	175	Big Sky

Sagarin Conference Ranking

Code:

						
Conference 	        CMean  ConfMax	NDSU
SEC                 	84.75	96.83	 12
PAC-12              	78.14	98.13	  7
BIG 12              	76.17	99.58	  5
ACC                 	74.69	87.42	  5
BIG TEN             	73.94	98.55	  5
I-A INDEPENDENTS    	68.46	79.83	  2
MISSOURI VALLEY     	64.18	79.71	  1
MWC                 	61.66	77.43	  1
CONFERENCE USA      	61.23	82.36	  2
AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	60.86	76.11	  1
MAC                 	56.12	68.08	  1
SUN BELT            	55.85	69.47	  1
BIG SOUTH           	52.54	68.46	  1
SOUTHERN            	50.49	68.29	  1
COLONIAL            	48.10	67.49	  1
SOUTHLAND           	47.14	63.40	  1
BIG SKY             	46.54	63.63	  1
OHIO VALLEY         	45.43	65.24	  1
I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	44.59	44.59	  1
PATRIOT             	44.44	60.31	  1
NORTHEAST           	42.70	52.68	  1
IVY LEAGUE          	39.85	63.08	  1
MID-EASTERN         	36.14	49.97	  1
SWAC                	31.63	50.66	  1
PIONEER             	24.28	43.49	  1

**Tatanka** · 01-06-2015, 04:57 PM

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

One last update before the game. Personally, I think the Bison are going to win by more than 5 just because of ISU giving their players 8 days off. It's one of those things that will have an impact on the game that can't be quantified in the stats. Bison by 10-17.

Sagarin's Championship Prediction (updated)

Code:

						
Rank 	Team		       Sagarin	  Predict    Result      Diff  
 32	North Dakota State  	79.71			
105	Iowa State          	61.38	  +15.56     +20.00	 +4.44
197	Weber State         	42.31	  +34.63     +17.00	-17.63
233	Incarnate Word      	26.51	  +55.97     +58.00	 +2.03
127	Montana             	56.24	  +26.24     +12.00	-14.24
118	Western Illinois    	57.65	  +19.29      +7.00	-12.29
108	Southern Illinois   	60.69	  +21.79     +28.00	 +6.21
 92	Indiana State       	64.03	  +18.45     +17.00	 -1.45
175	South Dakota        	46.62	  +30.32     +40.00	 +9.68
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.39     +20.00	 +6.61
 55	Northern Iowa       	72.19	   +4.75     -20.00	-24.75
114	Missouri State      	58.59	  +18.35     +35.00	+16.65
110	Youngstown State    	60.29	  +22.19     +24.00	 +1.81
					
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.39      +3.00	-10.39
 68	Coastal Carolina    	68.46	  +14.02      +7.00	 -7.02
 94	Sam Houston State   	63.40	  +19.08     +32.00	+19.78
 41	Illinois State      	75.13	   +4.58		
					
						Total Diff:	-20.56
		Home Field	 2.77

Sagarin FCS Top-25

Code:

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team                     SOS  SOSRank   Conference     
 1	 32	79.71	North Dakota State  	59.04	123	Missouri Valley
 2	 41	75.13	Illinois State      	58.84	126	Missouri Valley 
 3	 55	72.19	Northern Iowa       	61.20	106	Missouri Valley
 4	 67	69.09	South Dakota State  	63.70	 82	Missouri Valley
 5	 68	68.46	Coastal Carolina    	48.47	180	Big South
 6	 70	68.29	Chattanooga         	53.30	147	Southern
 7	 77	67.49	New Hampshire       	50.27	171	Colonial
 8	 84	65.24	Jacksonville State  	50.09	172	Ohio Valley
 9	 92	64.03	Indiana State       	63.31	 89	Missouri Valley
10	 93	63.63	Eastern Washington  	51.42	163	Big Sky
11	 94	63.40	Sam Houston State   	54.78	142	Southland
12	 95	63.08	Harvard             	38.73	227	Ivy League
13	 98	62.93	Villanova           	49.30	174	Colonial
14	100	62.32	SE Louisiana        	45.59	196	Southland
15	103	61.66	Liberty             	55.60	140	Big South
16	106	61.27	Samford             	56.59	135	Southern
17	108	60.69	Southern Illinois   	61.80	103	Missouri Valley
18	109	60.31	Fordham             	43.07	211	Patriot
19	110	60.29	Youngstown State    	57.79	132	Missouri Valley
20	113	58.61	Idaho State         	51.85	155	Big Sky
21	114	58.59	Missouri State      	63.56	 85	Missouri Valley
22	118	57.65	Western Illinois    	64.40	 76	Missouri Valley
23	122	56.79	Richmond            	50.37	170	Colonial
24	124	56.55	Charleston Southern 	51.73	159	Big South
25	127	56.24	Montana             	49.23	175	Big Sky

Sagarin Conference Ranking

Code:

						
Conference 	        CMean  ConfMax	NDSU
SEC                 	84.75	96.83	 12
PAC-12              	78.14	98.13	  7
BIG 12              	76.17	99.58	  5
ACC                 	74.69	87.42	  5
BIG TEN             	73.94	98.55	  5
I-A INDEPENDENTS    	68.46	79.83	  2
MISSOURI VALLEY     	64.18	79.71	  1
MWC                 	61.66	77.43	  1
CONFERENCE USA      	61.23	82.36	  2
AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	60.86	76.11	  1
MAC                 	56.12	68.08	  1
SUN BELT            	55.85	69.47	  1
BIG SOUTH           	52.54	68.46	  1
SOUTHERN            	50.49	68.29	  1
COLONIAL            	48.10	67.49	  1
SOUTHLAND           	47.14	63.40	  1
BIG SKY             	46.54	63.63	  1
OHIO VALLEY         	45.43	65.24	  1
I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	44.59	44.59	  1
PATRIOT             	44.44	60.31	  1
NORTHEAST           	42.70	52.68	  1
IVY LEAGUE          	39.85	63.08	  1
MID-EASTERN         	36.14	49.97	  1
SWAC                	31.63	50.66	  1
PIONEER             	24.28	43.49	  1

LOL@Big Fluffy

**bisonmike2** · 01-06-2015, 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

One last update before the game. Personally, I think the Bison are going to win by more than 5 just because of ISU giving their players 8 days off. It's one of those things that will have an impact on the game that can't be quantified in the stats. Bison by 10-17.

ISU took 8 days off? Wow.

**THEsocalledfan** · 01-06-2015, 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by Hammersmith

One last update before the game. Personally, I think the Bison are going to win by more than 5 just because of ISU giving their players 8 days off. It's one of those things that will have an impact on the game that can't be quantified in the stats. Bison by 10-17.

Sagarin's Championship Prediction (updated)

Code:

						
Rank 	Team		       Sagarin	  Predict    Result      Diff  
 32	North Dakota State  	79.71			
105	Iowa State          	61.38	  +15.56     +20.00	 +4.44
197	Weber State         	42.31	  +34.63     +17.00	-17.63
233	Incarnate Word      	26.51	  +55.97     +58.00	 +2.03
127	Montana             	56.24	  +26.24     +12.00	-14.24
118	Western Illinois    	57.65	  +19.29      +7.00	-12.29
108	Southern Illinois   	60.69	  +21.79     +28.00	 +6.21
 92	Indiana State       	64.03	  +18.45     +17.00	 -1.45
175	South Dakota        	46.62	  +30.32     +40.00	 +9.68
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.39     +20.00	 +6.61
 55	Northern Iowa       	72.19	   +4.75     -20.00	-24.75
114	Missouri State      	58.59	  +18.35     +35.00	+16.65
110	Youngstown State    	60.29	  +22.19     +24.00	 +1.81
					
 67	South Dakota State  	69.09	  +13.39      +3.00	-10.39
 68	Coastal Carolina    	68.46	  +14.02      +7.00	 -7.02
 94	Sam Houston State   	63.40	  +19.08     +32.00	+19.78
 41	Illinois State      	75.13	   +4.58		
					
						Total Diff:	-20.56
		Home Field	 2.77

Sagarin FCS Top-25

Code:

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team                     SOS  SOSRank   Conference     
 1	 32	79.71	North Dakota State  	59.04	123	Missouri Valley
 2	 41	75.13	Illinois State      	58.84	126	Missouri Valley 
 3	 55	72.19	Northern Iowa       	61.20	106	Missouri Valley
 4	 67	69.09	South Dakota State  	63.70	 82	Missouri Valley
 5	 68	68.46	Coastal Carolina    	48.47	180	Big South
 6	 70	68.29	Chattanooga         	53.30	147	Southern
 7	 77	67.49	New Hampshire       	50.27	171	Colonial
 8	 84	65.24	Jacksonville State  	50.09	172	Ohio Valley
 9	 92	64.03	Indiana State       	63.31	 89	Missouri Valley
10	 93	63.63	Eastern Washington  	51.42	163	Big Sky
11	 94	63.40	Sam Houston State   	54.78	142	Southland
12	 95	63.08	Harvard             	38.73	227	Ivy League
13	 98	62.93	Villanova           	49.30	174	Colonial
14	100	62.32	SE Louisiana        	45.59	196	Southland
15	103	61.66	Liberty             	55.60	140	Big South
16	106	61.27	Samford             	56.59	135	Southern
17	108	60.69	Southern Illinois   	61.80	103	Missouri Valley
18	109	60.31	Fordham             	43.07	211	Patriot
19	110	60.29	Youngstown State    	57.79	132	Missouri Valley
20	113	58.61	Idaho State         	51.85	155	Big Sky
21	114	58.59	Missouri State      	63.56	 85	Missouri Valley
22	118	57.65	Western Illinois    	64.40	 76	Missouri Valley
23	122	56.79	Richmond            	50.37	170	Colonial
24	124	56.55	Charleston Southern 	51.73	159	Big South
25	127	56.24	Montana             	49.23	175	Big Sky

Sagarin Conference Ranking

Code:

						
Conference 	        CMean  ConfMax	NDSU
SEC                 	84.75	96.83	 12
PAC-12              	78.14	98.13	  7
BIG 12              	76.17	99.58	  5
ACC                 	74.69	87.42	  5
BIG TEN             	73.94	98.55	  5
I-A INDEPENDENTS    	68.46	79.83	  2
MISSOURI VALLEY     	64.18	79.71	  1
MWC                 	61.66	77.43	  1
CONFERENCE USA      	61.23	82.36	  2
AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	60.86	76.11	  1
MAC                 	56.12	68.08	  1
SUN BELT            	55.85	69.47	  1
BIG SOUTH           	52.54	68.46	  1
SOUTHERN            	50.49	68.29	  1
COLONIAL            	48.10	67.49	  1
SOUTHLAND           	47.14	63.40	  1
BIG SKY             	46.54	63.63	  1
OHIO VALLEY         	45.43	65.24	  1
I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	44.59	44.59	  1
PATRIOT             	44.44	60.31	  1
NORTHEAST           	42.70	52.68	  1
IVY LEAGUE          	39.85	63.08	  1
MID-EASTERN         	36.14	49.97	  1
SWAC                	31.63	50.66	  1
PIONEER             	24.28	43.49	  1

did I read this right....EVERY MVFC team finished in the FCS Sagarin top 25? Holy mother.......

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