CAS we are just pointing out the absurdity that is the BC$.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
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CAS we are just pointing out the absurdity that is the BC$.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
Well, a few things I didn't expect this week. First, NDSU's position is unchanged after our loss. Second, NDSU & UNI are still 1-2 in FCS. Third, the MVFC has now taken the lead in the dogfight for best conference. Looking at our season so far, we seem to have had a three games that were slightly better than predicted(SDSU, Laf & StFU), a bunch that were on the money, and two bad games(SIU & YSU). As of right now, the only team we would not be favored at on a hostile field is UNI (although GSU is within only 1/5 of a point in our favor). The GPI will be pretty interesting tomorrow night, because we will drop in both the human polls, but probably remain #1 in some of the computer rankings.
edit: Also, GSU is going to get a boost next week after they play Alabama. Like most rating systems, teams get a bonus for playing top-30(even if they lose) and a bigger bonus for playing top-10 teams. Keeping the score within 30 will also help raise GSU's rating.
Week 11
Week 10Code:rate predict actual diff
59 North Dakota State 71.23
72 Northern Iowa 69.34 + 4.30 + 8.00 +3.70
98 Youngstown State 62.17 +11.47 - 3.00 -14.47
99 Illinois State 62.11 +11.53 +10.00 -1.53
101 Minnesota 61.83 + 6.99 +13.00 +6.01
116 Indiana State 59.28 + 9.54 + 9.00 -0.54
151 South Dakota State 52.22 +16.60 +24.00 +7.40
152 Southern Illinois 52.15 +16.67 + 6.00 -10.67
172 Missouri State 47.98 +25.66 +30.00 +4.34
190 Lafayette 43.84 +28.80 +36.00 +7.20
199 Western Illinois 41.56 +27.26
237 Saint Francis-Pa 29.34 +44.30 +53.00 +8.70
Code:rate predict actual diff
59 North Dakota State 71.75
74 Northern Iowa 68.81 + 5.49 + 8.00 +2.51
101 Illinois State 62.18 +12.12 +10.00 -2.12
105 Minnesota 60.77 + 8.43 +13.00 +4.57
110 Youngstown State 59.97 +14.33
119 Indiana State 58.99 +10.21 + 9.00 -1.21
157 Southern Illinois 51.50 +17.70 + 6.00 -11.70
163 South Dakota State 50.60 +18.60 +24.00 +5.40
173 Missouri State 47.73 +26.57 +30.00 +3.43
194 Lafayette 43.40 +30.90 +36.00 +5.10
197 Western Illinois 43.04 +26.16
235 Saint Francis-Pa 28.97 +45.33 +53.00 +7.67
Conferences
Code:Week 11
1. MVFC 57.76
2. SoCn 57.57
3. GWC 57.48
4. BSC 55.42
5. CAA 51.86
Week 10
1. SoCn 58.08
2. GWC 57.78
3. MVFC 57.08
4. BSC 55.50
5. CAA 52.52
Hammersmith you should check the Sagarin page again. I just looked and Sagarin actually has us up to 54 and everyone else up a few spots as well. Not sure if you were just a little too early for all the updates or what, but thought I'd let you know.
I agree with your observations though. Thanks for posting as usual. (I tried to reply with the updated rankings but failed miserably, not sure how you make it so clean).
Hammer is using Sagarin's "predictor" rankings which are the most accurate.Quote:
Originally Posted by TQ16
Student already covered it, but here is the expanded version.Quote:
Originally Posted by TQ16
If you go to this website: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
You will see that there are several columns. If you go to the far right, you will see two columns of numbers. The blue numbers are labeled PREDICTOR and the red column is labeled ELO_CHESS. The blue column includes all factors like W/L record, strength of schedule and score margin. When the BCS approached Sagarin to include his numbers in their computer rankings, they forbid him from using some factors in his calculation, including margin of victory. All that was allowed was W/L record and SOS. Those results make up the red column. When USA Today started running Sagarin's results, they wanted something that included both figures. So Sagarin created a third set of results that basically averages the two numbers(not exactly, but close). This third set of numbers is labeled RATING and is colored purple.
So which to use? Sagarin makes this comment in his introduction at the top of the webpage linked above: (emphases mine)
Since Sagarin says PREDICTOR is the most accurate, that's the one I go with. The conference rankings are also recalculated using the PREDICTOR numbers and the central mean method.Quote:
In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. The ELO CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).
I normally have to re-explain this about every third week.
YOu should just put the explanation it as your signature!!!:biggrin:Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
officially embarassed
Just don't do the double dip and post about how NDSU is still ranked #1 in the coaches poll tonight or tomorrow morning.Quote:
Originally Posted by TQ16
14-1 29.9%
13-2 19.9%
12-2 23.9%
11-2 12.8%
10-2 12.4%
11-3 0.5%
10-3 0.3%
9-3 0.3%
Using the Sports Network bracket?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Yes. .Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Hammersmith was having a beer with my Dad & I at tailgating yesterday. I told Dad, "This is the smartest guy I know." I should add you are probably one of the most patient people, too!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
NDSU 71.23; Western Illinois 41.56 + 3 for them...so Bison by 26.67
The computers still love us....should mean good things for our GPI....
http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm
If we take care of business this week like we should, we will get a good seed. IF we are the top 2, I want to be #3 and have a chance to play @ #2 MSU again like last year. That would be a fantastic game to see.
We are still #1 in the GPI, but that doesn't guarantee a #1 seed. It should give us at least a #4 seed, I hope.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent
If we win a 4 seed should be extremely attainable. We still have the possibility of a 2 seed if everything goes our way.
Go Bison! Go Mont.! Go TX St! Go Ill. St! and Go Bama!
Sports Network moved Wofford @ Montana into our quarter and Towson @ App. St. out. Which increases the projected difficulty of our quarter final and makes Sam Houston's projected road to the Semi's easier.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Umm, some of those records you posted have a zero chance of happening, yet there are still percentages??!!!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Computers these days . . . . . . . . . . . .
I'll bite...which ones are impossible, Mr. Pythagoras?Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
TheseQuote:
Originally Posted by Answer Guy
13-2 18.3%
12-2 21.3%
11-2 19.2%
10-2 12.4%
11-3 0.5%
10-3 0.4%
9-3 0.3%
:biggrin:
Ummm, ya, ahhh. . . . gimme some more time to think about that. . . . . . . . . . .:paperbag:Quote:
Originally Posted by Answer Guy
He was my neighbor in a past life. He and I both had our togas cleaned at Harry Parathestes Dry Cleaning, Inc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Answer Guy
I lumped the 12-2 and the 12-3 together earlier. User error.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
How many decimal places do you have to carry out to register a digit on the 14-2 scenario?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
The earlier scenarios assume a first round bye, yes?
When I made the note '1st round' in the prior post I meant NDSU's first playoff game. All scenario's assume a bye as they're constructed from the Sports Network projected bracket.Quote:
Originally Posted by gotts
My model is pretty basic. I'm simply taking the Sports Network projected bracket and today's Sagarin numbers and treating them as a static reality. I'm not attempting to reseed the playoffs in the event we'd lose to WIll or model anything the happens this weekend and its effect on the playoff bracket or the relative strengths of the teams. It's simply not that dynamic of a model. So I'm assuming that NDSU receives a 1st round bye in every instance.
Really though, even if they lost to W Ill would NDSU drop out of the top 12?
How would we ever have a 14-2 record this year. The most regular season wins we can have is 10, and the most PO wins we could have would be 4, assuming no bye. If we were to win the NC, we would be 14-1, if we were to make it there and lose we would be 13-2, right? Or am I missing something?!!Quote:
Originally Posted by gotts
It's 4 playoff games w/ a bye. 5 w/out.Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
Ya, ahhh, that's why I am an attorney and not an accountant or engineer or the like!!!!:hide:Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
With a bye, it would take 4 wins for a NC. Without a bye, it would take 5 wins. Might I suggest you stick to breaking down film and leave the stats to Baudit?Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
Is that rhetorical?Quote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
Go Yotes!Quote:
Originally Posted by Answer Guy
Tanny is gay!
That's all!:detsucks:
Just to be an idiot, we could theoretically play 18 games in a season(just not this one). Certain years we can play 12 regular season games instead of the normal 11. Plus, games in Hawaii don't count toward that number, so that makes 13 regular season games if they are our FBS game. And there are 5 playoff games if a team doesn't get a first round bye. Of course, an 18-0 record is virtually impossible since any team at 13-0 after the regular season is sure to get a bye. So, I guess we'll just have to settle for 17-0 someday.
We really need to get a game at Hawaii....Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Why doesn't Hawaii count?
I'm guessing because otherwise Hawai'i would have great difficulty getting non-conference home games?Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlandsBison
It's an incentive for schools to schedule them. Say NDSU were to schedule them on a regular year. We could have our FBS game(Hawaii) + 1 away FCS(or a second FBS) and still be able to have 6 home games. The same is true for Alaska, but they don't have any DI football programs so I didn't mention them.Quote:
Originally Posted by BadlandsBison
edit: And I got beat to the punch yet again.
Could we schedule Hawaii for the last game of the season? I'd rather be in Hawaii in November than September.
This ^^^^^^^Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
We should never play an FBS at the end of the season. I hate to burst bubbles but I don't think we should ever schedule Hawaii, I'd much rather play regional FBS schools. I'd rather our team not travel halfway around the world to play a football game.
Oh that's right, there would be a football game to play...I started day-dreaming a bit while looking out the window.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent