Sagarin says

[NDSUstudent]

Ahhhh, let's get back to reality. Maybe top 100 in country?! Possibly.

CAS we are just pointing out the absurdity that is the BC$.

[Hammersmith]

Well, a few things I didn't expect this week. First, NDSU's position is unchanged after our loss. Second, NDSU & UNI are still 1-2 in FCS. Third, the MVFC has now taken the lead in the dogfight for best conference. Looking at our season so far, we seem to have had a three games that were slightly better than predicted(SDSU, Laf & StFU), a bunch that were on the money, and two bad games(SIU & YSU). As of right now, the only team we would not be favored at on a hostile field is UNI (although GSU is within only 1/5 of a point in our favor). The GPI will be pretty interesting tomorrow night, because we will drop in both the human polls, but probably remain #1 in some of the computer rankings.

edit: Also, GSU is going to get a boost next week after they play Alabama. Like most rating systems, teams get a bonus for playing top-30(even if they lose) and a bigger bonus for playing top-10 teams. Keeping the score within 30 will also help raise GSU's rating.

Week 11

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
59  North Dakota State	71.23
72  Northern Iowa	69.34  + 4.30  + 8.00	+3.70
98  Youngstown State	62.17  +11.47  - 3.00  -14.47
99  Illinois State	62.11  +11.53  +10.00   -1.53
101 Minnesota		61.83  + 6.99  +13.00   +6.01
116 Indiana State	59.28  + 9.54  + 9.00   -0.54
151 South Dakota State	52.22  +16.60  +24.00	+7.40
152 Southern Illinois	52.15  +16.67  + 6.00  -10.67
172 Missouri State	47.98  +25.66  +30.00	+4.34
190 Lafayette		43.84  +28.80  +36.00   +7.20
199 Western Illinois	41.56  +27.26  
237 Saint Francis-Pa	29.34  +44.30  +53.00   +8.70

Week 10

			rate   predict  actual	 diff
59  North Dakota State	71.75
74  Northern Iowa	68.81  + 5.49  + 8.00	+2.51
101 Illinois State	62.18  +12.12  +10.00   -2.12
105 Minnesota		60.77  + 8.43  +13.00   +4.57
110 Youngstown State	59.97  +14.33  
119 Indiana State	58.99  +10.21  + 9.00   -1.21
157 Southern Illinois	51.50  +17.70  + 6.00  -11.70
163 South Dakota State	50.60  +18.60  +24.00	+5.40
173 Missouri State	47.73  +26.57  +30.00	+3.43
194 Lafayette		43.40  +30.90  +36.00   +5.10
197 Western Illinois	43.04  +26.16  
235 Saint Francis-Pa	28.97  +45.33  +53.00   +7.67

Conferences

Week 11
1. MVFC	57.76
2. SoCn	57.57
3. GWC	57.48
4. BSC	55.42
5. CAA	51.86

Week 10
1. SoCn	58.08
2. GWC	57.78
3. MVFC	57.08
4. BSC	55.50
5. CAA	52.52

[TQ16]

Hammersmith you should check the Sagarin page again. I just looked and Sagarin actually has us up to 54 and everyone else up a few spots as well. Not sure if you were just a little too early for all the updates or what, but thought I'd let you know.

I agree with your observations though. Thanks for posting as usual. (I tried to reply with the updated rankings but failed miserably, not sure how you make it so clean).

[NDSUstudent]

Hammersmith you should check the Sagarin page again. I just looked and Sagarin actually has us up to 54 and everyone else up a few spots as well. Not sure if you were just a little too early for all the updates or what, but thought I'd let you know.

I agree with your observations though. Thanks for posting as usual. (I tried to reply with the updated rankings but failed miserably, not sure how you make it so clean).

Hammer is using Sagarin's "predictor" rankings which are the most accurate.

[Hammersmith]

Hammersmith you should check the Sagarin page again. I just looked and Sagarin actually has us up to 54 and everyone else up a few spots as well. Not sure if you were just a little too early for all the updates or what, but thought I'd let you know.

I agree with your observations though. Thanks for posting as usual. (I tried to reply with the updated rankings but failed miserably, not sure how you make it so clean).

Student already covered it, but here is the expanded version.

If you go to this website: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm
You will see that there are several columns. If you go to the far right, you will see two columns of numbers. The blue numbers are labeled PREDICTOR and the red column is labeled ELO_CHESS. The blue column includes all factors like W/L record, strength of schedule and score margin. When the BCS approached Sagarin to include his numbers in their computer rankings, they forbid him from using some factors in his calculation, including margin of victory. All that was allowed was W/L record and SOS. Those results make up the red column. When USA Today started running Sagarin's results, they wanted something that included both figures. So Sagarin created a third set of results that basically averages the two numbers(not exactly, but close). This third set of numbers is labeled RATING and is colored purple.

So which to use? Sagarin makes this comment in his introduction at the top of the webpage linked above: (emphases mine)

In ELO CHESS, only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very "politically correct". However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the PURE POINTS, in which the score margin is the only thing that matters. PURE POINTS is also known as PREDICTOR, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL and is the best single PREDICTOR of future games. The ELO CHESS will be utilized by the Bowl Championship Series(BCS).

Since Sagarin says PREDICTOR is the most accurate, that's the one I go with. The conference rankings are also recalculated using the PREDICTOR numbers and the central mean method.

I normally have to re-explain this about every third week.

[BisonTeacher]

I normally have to re-explain this about every third week.

YOu should just put the explanation it as your signature!!!

[TQ16]

officially embarassed

[Bisonguy]

officially embarassed

Just don't do the double dip and post about how NDSU is still ranked #1 in the coaches poll tonight or tomorrow morning.

[bisonaudit]

14-1 29.9%
13-2 19.9%
12-2 23.9%
11-2 12.8%
10-2 12.4%
11-3 0.5%
10-3 0.3%
9-3 0.3%

[Hammersmith]

14-1 29.9%
13-2 19.9%
12-2 23.9%
11-2 12.8%
10-2 12.4%
11-3 0.5%
10-3 0.3%
9-3 0.3%

Using the Sports Network bracket?