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The whole thing needs to be tore down and rebuilt. These super conferences are ruining the sport. Get it back to 9 teams per conference and a legit playoff format. Nobody wants a Maryland traveling across the country to play USC or Oregon traveling to play Rutgers FFS! Bring back the rivalries! Make college FB great again!
When was 9 teams the model? Big Ten had 10 teams until the 90's. SEC had ten teams until 1990. Big 8 became Big 12 in the 90's. Etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bisonator98
I'm fine with 8-12 team conferences. These giant ones are stupid for all the reasons people have expressed over the past few years. I'd love if they collapsed, but I don't think the old bands are every getting back together.
What is happening with P2 is consolidation of the Power schools (Texas, Oregon, UCLA, etc) into two large conferences that can eventually separate and operate like a mini NFL. (AFC vs NFC). Its become pretty clear this is the intent. They want to dominate the market and take 95% of the media money. They don't wish to share the wealth or play nice with others.
Whoever is left out will be scrapping over peanuts, and that is why there has been a mad dash for P4, and now P2 invites.
I know you like to project yourself as some kind of plugged in type that knows what's going on in all of this but I don't think the P2 really even knows. Feels like they're winging it a bit. I'd agree that the P2 is trying to monopolize the money and thus the power but I think even they know that if they separate completely from the rest of college football and become semi-pro leagues their likely to see a decline in the sport. They need the casual eyeballs to make it go. If it becomes NFL lite those casual eyeballs likely just go more to the NFL. College football and basketball always had a separate niche compared to the NFL and NBA because there was the school/state loyalty aspect, the pageantry and the tradition. NFL lite loses some of that niche. I think they're testing out how far the casual fans will let them go before the drop off comes. In my opinion that is a bit short of separating completely into an NFL lite. They need the fans of the smaller schools to buy into the idea that their schools are in the same class and have a chance to knock off the big dogs, even if it is a slim chance. Without that, it feels like the wider casual fan appeal starts to fall apart.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Some of this is incredibly obvious on the surface, other parts become obvious if you talk to people at power programs and read various articles on how this is developing in places like the Athletic.
The P2/4 have more than telegraphed their intentions. There was an actual NCAA proposal already to split P4 and G5/6 into two subdivisions.
They didn’t have the voting power at that time, and were still busy sorting out the House settlement. Sure looks like all of NCAA is about to hand them the keys to D1 governance.
If the August 5 D1 vote goes as expected, there will be no stopping the train. On the football side with CFP it’s all about whether P2 want to allocate fixed number of bids between themselves and B12/ACC or if they want at larges to fight over. Everyone else outside P4 is an afterthought.
85% of NCAA revenue comes from one event... men's basketball tournament. Football is not a revenue generator for NCAA so splitting off for football changes nothing on the financial side. They may lobby for different rules regarding transfers, recruiting, NIL, etc. I would be curious to see what happens to the tournament if they make it P2 only or even the basketball P6. Any financial difference works impact FCS championship since they are somewhat underwritten by the basketball money.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk
Here's the problem ... P4 + Big East (a basketball "P5") will now control governance and how revenue is allocated for basketball as well from what I am reading.Quote:
Originally Posted by IndyBison
Seems like the deal with the devil got passed, P4 now control D1 governance with 65% of voting power.
Look for the new Basketball P5 to become a lot more stingy with that revenue, with the option to put up new barriers or split also.
That was seen as a "compromise" with P4 who wanted 100% control, sigh.
https://x.com/RossDellenger/status/1952807875006611573
https://x.com/bportnoy15/status/1945...d-1013490.html
Interesting blog article by Dennis Dodd on Missouri St
https://dennisdodd2019.substack.com/...c-4358a6006d98
Missouri State is never going to be good in football. The students and the town don't care about them. They should have dropped football. That would be their biggest success in football. Not losing anymore because they don't have a program.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Oh, I wholeheartedly agree, they lost to a not great Ark St 70-7 lol.Quote:
Originally Posted by KC_Hats
The article was still interesting in terms of how the process works, and what motivates it. Reinforced that these moves are largely about location and money rather than football performance (merit). And as the article said CUSA just needed "warm bodies" in their geographic region.
Lots of little nuggets in the article like McCaw saying "We kind of view them as a middle as an upper middle program in CUSA." What does that say about CUSA overall?
Article also mentioned how their AD said "I think the dollars and cents are just going to work themselves out.”, when in reality only 20 FBS schools are profitable, and it sure looks like they will lose even more money in the short term.
The whole thing for Missouri St feels like part moon shot, and part a fool's mission. They are among the schools that could easily be squeezed out as costs escalate. Or alternatively, perhaps they spend as little as possible, and simply remain cellar dwellers for life.
New lawsuit filed in the ongoing MWC pissing match.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/654...-grand-canyon/
*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*
Ah yes, Dennis ‘click bait’ Dodd, the guy who had NDSU to the B12 in 2013 …
Mo State is not the last FBS call up, or they would have slammed the door shut on Aug. 5 instead of leaving it cracked open for 5 more years. Once NDSU gets out of the way (ask Herder and McFeely lol), there are literally a handful (3-4) of potential callups before the door finally slams shut in 5 years, depending on which of the usual suspects are interested and maintain continued success (title games and rings will matter going forward)
Regarding the 'Dakota 4', it isn’t clear to me that the SD schools are interested, and UND is only interested cuz NDSU. But with the weight of MIH going forward in the NIL/portal era, I just don’t see it. They also haven’t been very successful in FCS, tbh. It’s going to be tough to build a resume out of nowhere in 5 years, so you can draw from the list of schools that already come up regularly – Montanas (if interested), UC Davis, Tarelton (not sure why), maybe SDSU, etc
free version - https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...-mountain-westQuote:
Originally Posted by TAILG8R
Haha, at $5 or $10 for a ticket, there is no way things will work out for Missouri State. Imagine their crowd size if they had to pay $50+ for a ticket.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Tarleton comes up frequently because of location, population, and growth curve. In short, that region is growing rapidly, Tarleton as a school is also growing and investing rapidly. It's a bet on potential, and just existing in Texas. Texas is considered desirable region for recruiting, media money, etc. It's just about been farmed to death though.Quote:
Originally Posted by WhoRepsTheLurker
Tarleton is popping up on radar of both CUSA and SBC now, though only CUSA seems serious about it, and has them on their shortlist. Missouri St also had discussions with SBC for a long time, but ultimately only CUSA would take them.
Not sure the door has slammed shut yet, but we do seem to be in a period of pause on callups, while FBS folks try to sort out what the new structure is going to look like under P4 control/governance. CUSA seems to have no intentions to backfill now for their 2 losses, MWC went out of their way to grab a MAC school, and MAC and everyone else is standing pat for now.
What comes out of PAC/MWC lawsuit may determine next moves. I think there is a good chance within 3 years, PAC looks to pull additional schools from MWC or AAC. They would love to have UNLV, Memphis, and a few schools like that.
Wow - thanks for posting the Dodd article. Interesting note on student fees.
He said in article student fee will go from $145 to $836 for basically moving Football to FBS. Total inflation of tuition costs for terrible product they will presenting. That is $3000 bucks over 4 years for an individual student just not not counting for any increases in future.
I'll give MSU credit, sittting in the MVC taking orders from tiny private schools isn't a great existence long term. They are better than that, glad they got out and wish they had taken us with them. A chunk of the MVFC should have rescued CUSA when it was in ruins.
CUSA shots were mostly called by the schools left behind after 6 departed to AAC and 3 to SBC.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUstudent
They wanted to rebuild in the southeast region, and largely mirror the same geographic footprint of SBC/AAC. Any CUSA backfills are highly likely to come from Southeast (Texas -> Florida -> Mid-atlantic) region.
For most G6 conferences, and especially MAC, CUSA, SBC the focus is on staying within a more regional footprint for the cost savings. G6 is whole lot more like FCS conferences than P4 in terms of how they operate and budgets. They are largely trying to contain costs/losses. P4 operates in a different realm.
Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State are suing for something they voted yes on. Nice tryQuote:
Originally Posted by TAILG8R
Suspect there is a strong likelihood both sides reach a settlement at some point, would be surprised to see these cases go to trial verdict.Quote:
Originally Posted by HerdBot
The real angle/motivation: PAC wants to keep more money, and potentially take another swing at grabbing a couple more MW teams. MW wants to collect that money, and discourage any further poaching of their conference for a while.
From NDSU pov, may be better if PAC schools win, and can take a couple from MW. That potentially forces MW to take another look at adding us, or other less desirable options.
Can you define what would constitute a "win" for the Pac?
Based on the absolute absurdity of their lawsuits? Not having the sheriff seize office furnishings to pay the 8-9 figure court judgement coming their way.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
I think from an NDSU perspective, we want the MW to win. Yeah, I see your point of defections but do we really want to join an even more watered down league?Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
To move to the conference, we will need a payout better than what we have now, but that won't happen if they can't get a decent TV deal. That doesn't happen if they lose more teams
I'm rooting for the MW. They really need 2 more teams and I like out chances because the PAC will be targeting 1 or 2 more teams too.
I can see your point also. It likely would mean joining a “weaker” MW.Quote:
Originally Posted by HerdBot
IMO, we do want the PAC to poach further, because without that the MW can just keep the status quo, FBS conferences stabilize for a while and we keep sitting on the sidelines. Most additions from FCS occur due to some level of chaos in the existing FBS conferences. It is rare a FCS school gets added to a stable FBS conference, and there seems to be pressure against this right now making it even harder.
Afraid we may have to wait until FBS splits into subdivisions if MW or MAC aren’t poached, forcing FCS backfill.
I don't think the MW will poach any more MW schools. The MW is going to receive some amount of money either through settlements or a trial. They are going to have a media deal soon and the floor of that is 3.5 million per full member. That number has been guaranteed by the conference. I think the media deal will be a bit larger, perhaps around 5 million per full member.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
All the remaining schools and the newcomers have signed a grant of rights with the MW. I think that goes into effect in 26 but if schools leave before then, they would be subject to an exit fee and would need to give two year's notice or pay a doubled exit fee. I can't see any of the schools leaving but who knows. If they did lose a school the first move would be to make Davis a full member.
However, none of this precludes the conference from adding schools if they choose. The original idea was to add two CST or EST football only members. NIU and Toledo. I think Toledo may still be in the mix but, again, who knows.
You have an outstanding football program and you are in the CST. I think you have as strong of a chance to be invited as anybody. As for who wins in the lawsuits. Only the lawyers..
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say I bet you're right. I'm sure the MW won't poach any of their own teams. Unless you think that poaching their own teams is a way to keep NDSU from getting an invite to the MW?Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
Oops..By the by I am in favor of adding NDSU football.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
Any thoughts on when that might happen? You often seem to mention other schools like UCD and Toledo.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
Were JMU, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern and Coastal Carolina added for that reason? Nobody even thinks of them as former FCS schools anymoreQuote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Not the Sunbelt is a top G5 League with a large chunk former FCS
Conference USA definitely added for that reason, but they added mediocre teams
I am in favor of adding NDSU football only but I don't have any idea when or if that might happen. There has been near complete radio silence on this. The Big Mountain guy believes you will be added, so there is that. Every now and then I hear stuff about Toledo but I am not at all sure that will happen. I don't think it is any secret that Davis will be moving their football to FBS in the MW. Their contract says they are to be the first FCS school to be invited to the MW for football. Like you guys, they have plenty of money to do this.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
I concur with the suggestion here that MW football will be weaker going forward but all the schools have decent G6 budgets and the conference as a whole should be fine.
NDSU used to be in the Great West Football Conference with UC Davis when we both moved up to D1 together so I'm more familiar with them than the average Joe. Even made a trip out there in our early D1 days. We played some good gamesQuote:
Originally Posted by MWC
I don't think UC Davis has any extra money to move up or build a new stadium. People see their huge budget and think they are loaded. Reality is they are so tight on money, they basically only recruit in state kids.
Why? Because 1 out of state recruit costs nearly $75k per year. That would wipe out their athletic budget and endowment. Even recruiting in state kids still costs 45k a year. Basically donations don't go very far because boosters use their money to pay scholarships
Just to add 44 more in state scholarships to be Title 9 compliant would cost them 2 million bucks a year
Their funding for athletic department is complicated being in California
Up until this year, they couldnt even pay for lights for their baseball and soccer field which seems absurd. It wasn't surprising to me they opted out of the House settlement
Indirectly, yes.Quote:
Originally Posted by HerdBot
These shifts/additions are almost always linked to “poaching” somewhere, or in other words the departure of schools from one FBS conference to another.
In the last round prior to PAC poaching MW, what occurred was AAC poached 6 from CUSA, which left CUSA in such a weakened state that an additional 3 CUSA schools left for SBC. That “chaos” opened a door for JMU to be the 4th school included. Without that, no way SBC invites them as a one off. It was about balancing the divisions.
Prior to that App St and Georgia Southern SBC additions were also about balancing out divisions as the SBC was rebuilding itself.
Now we unfortunately seem to be in some type of lull period or pause where conferences are electing not to backfill from FCS. See: MAC and CUSA recent losses.
May not be official, but it sure looks like there is some fear of P4 retribution at the moment. I would not mind us being added as a western branch of MAC, but they do not seem to be seeking any additions currently.
That and their AD basically said “we need to achieve something in FCS before we ever consider this” (paraphrasing). Tarleton’s AD basically said the same thing recently as well, and the BigMT guy will admit that although he really wants Tarleton, NDSU is in front of them. I truly believe that with the P4 now “keeping the gate”, exemplary success in FCS will be an unstated prereq going forward, as it should be. Blue Hens and Mo St made the move because they saw the window closing for them. My take anywayQuote:
Originally Posted by HerdBot
I think you are underestimating Davis but never the less they are already in the MW and they have a contract with the conference that they have to be the first FCS school to receive an invitation to add their football. I have no idea why either party would agree to that clause if there wasn't an understanding that Davis will say yes. It is a school with over 30 thousand students, 300 thousand alumni, a huge endowment and are part of the University of California system. They are not part of the Cal State system and the UC's are not broke. Even if they never move up their football they are a fabulous add. They also have nothing to do with whether or not NDSU is added or not. It isn't either or.Quote:
Originally Posted by HerdBot
I think Davis sees the window closing too..Quote:
Originally Posted by WhoRepsTheLurker
But as you just pointed out, they’re already in, with insider access, so its not closing nearly as fast as for any Valley school not named NDSU who wants to move up, assuming there are any …Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
The vibe I get from the other valley schools is “wait for the split’, but in reality the split already happened, and yet no G6 program is considering moving down to FCS. To the contrary, in fact
I never said they were broke. I said they don't have the money to move up right now. A big budget and enrollment doesn't mean anything other than they have big expenses. It's not cheap to conduct business in California. It costs 30 grand per year just to house a student, in addition to 45k in tuition. Its kind of insane. So a donor that gives 75k a year is only funding 1 in state scholarship when you figure in housing. On the flip side, it costs Wyoming 6500 a year to fund an in state student a full rideQuote:
Originally Posted by MWC
Also they fund 25 sports, so it doesn't go very far. Most teams fund 12 or 13
The contract says they have to be the first to be CONSIDERED. It's really a meaningless contract.
The MW can easily decline after the application comes in
A team that is loaded would be Grand Canyon
Maybe they will never consider Davis or any FCS school which will end that completely. We may know that soon if Tarleton moves to CUSA as expected. The MW currently has 9 football playing schools and 10 olympic sports schools. That is, after all, the perfect size for a G6 conference. Cheap and easy travel, including a number of warm weather cities. It doesn't generally lay out much easier than that.Quote:
Originally Posted by HerdBot
While I think adding NDSU football is a good idea, I have no idea if that is even in the cards at this point. However, I have no complaints about the makeup of the conference in 2026 forward.
I don't think CUSA will add anyone. After Deleware and Missouri State move in, that's the perfect number of schools at 10Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
The PAC needs 2 more. MW needs 1 more football only. Any school they poach will start a chain reaction
I have a gut feeling the MAC could come calling if they lose another team. Right now they are an odd 11. Would they want to stay at 10 or add 2? What if they targeta CUSA school like Western Kentucky?
But if the CUSA loses another...
At the end of the day the only conference I would want to see us join as football only is the MW, PAC or AAC. Nothing else makes sense or interests me, unless CUSA wants to add 4 schools from the Montana's and Dakota's
Unless that happens, I would rather stay put . We're in a good spot right now and can be picky. We have a solid TV deal and had 10.2 million people watch us last year on TV, including 2 games on ABC and the National Championship game. We have the luxury to be patient. We're chipping away at facilities every year. Now we're building a 15 million dollar wrestling practice facility to up the game for the Big 12
It will be interesting. But as I originally predicted, I don't think the MW or PAC does anything until the legal battles are over and a TV deal is announced. That could take years
I think both the Pac media deal and the MW media deal will announced this month. If the lawsuits do indeed go to trial that will take a couple of years, at least, but it doesn't really prevent either conference from adding if they wish to.