Staying with the biblical theme - is Brookings Sodom or Gomorrah?
Printable View
Staying with the biblical theme - is Brookings Sodom or Gomorrah?
I'm glad you were paying attention in Sunday School after all. I guess there is some hope for you after all.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
More like Grand Forks.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
I think he was asking which was which.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Plus he had God on his side, which isn't really fair either.
Both..............covered in pig shit.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
I like a good story as much as the next guy.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
Nice thing is, it's non fiction.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
So is every other religious or mythological text.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
I don't see this ending well.
Thanks for stepping in, Tony. I kind of like when this thread doesn't drift. (Though admittedly, I contributed to the drift.)Quote:
Originally Posted by tony
Please stop before this thread goes down the shitter. Seriously...I think I would cry.
lol, this board is the shitter so your too lateQuote:
Originally Posted by No_Skill
This thread was my last bastion of hope.Quote:
Originally Posted by tjbison
Quote:
Originally Posted by No_Skill
Like the rest of us you lost....
http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb2.../d2/NOOOO!.gifQuote:
Originally Posted by tjbison
Come on. I started this thread back in 2011. Let's get back on track.
So...92% chance that we go 10-2 or better...that's pretty sweet.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Anyone want to take a stab at estimating the % chance of breaking Oklahoma's 47 game streak? Perfect this year plus 4 playoff game would be 40. So, 8 games into next year's schedule to break it.
Gumby haha. Terrific idea
I think we'd have to assume that all teams on the schedule, including projected playoff teams and those on next year's schedule, would have their current ratings.Quote:
Originally Posted by gumby013
We could use some specified early playoff projections or just assume that we play an average of the bottom quartile of the top 24 in the first/second round, average of the next quartile in the third round, average of the teams 7-12 in the semis, and then the second rated team in the finals (which right now is SDSU, isn't it?)
It seems to me that the odds are pretty low, but I am curious what the answer is too. Audit usually does the projections during playoff time, right? Is this a reasonable task?
(Or we could just say the odds are 50/50. Either we do it or we don't.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Belief in nothing, is still a belief.
Dip shit. You wanted to start it . You got it.
See me on the smack thread. We will spare everyone the pain of your response.
I know this doesn't really answer your question but we are a breakaway DJ TD that turned into a fumble against Youngstown and one Pick 6 against Indy St away from being at 49 currently.Quote:
Originally Posted by gumby013
As of right now though we would be favored in every game for the rest of this year.
We should be at 49 and 4 titles as well.
If ifs and buts were candy and nuts....Quote:
Originally Posted by El_Chapo
If you take the Sagarin ratings and pull out the top rated team from each AQ conference and then fill in the at-large teams again based on the ratings, then rank those 24 teams again based on Sagarin numbers and fill out a bracket without regard to any other polls, bracketology or geography, NDSU has a 13% chance of going 16-0. That would get you to 40 in a row, I think.
From there you can mess around with the odds of winning 7 or 8 more games. If you make them all true coin flips it's about 1 in 1,000 to tie the record of 47 and 1 in 2,000 to eclipse it.
If you make the rest of the games 75/25 it's about 1 in 60 to tie and 1 in 80 to exceed.
So that gives you an idea anyway.
We would want more beerQuote:
Originally Posted by acf2
:D
13% chance of another natty and undefeated year this year based on Sagarin figures? I know the game is played on the field for a reason and anything can happen, but I like those odds!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Bad week for us(dropped 10 spots), good week for the MVFC. 80% of the conference makes up 50% of the top-16. The MVFC is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the rest of the top-5 conferences. The worst MVFC team(USD) is ranked 41. Socon is back in the top-5 conferences, and the OVC says goodbye for a bit. Indiana State shoots up to #16 after being barely unranked last week. Montana learns that if you barely beat UND, you barely stay in the top-25.
Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
52 North Dakota State 74.15
67 Iowa State 69.86 +0.85 +20.00 +19.15
200 Weber State 44.93 +25.78 +17.00 -8.78
239 Incarnate Word 28.21 +49.38 +58.00 +8.62
125 Montana 57.89 +19.70 +12.00 -7.70
155 Western Illinois 51.71 +19.00 +7.00 -12.00
86 Southern Illinois 65.05 +12.54
106 Indiana State 61.23 +16.36
162 South Dakota 50.91 +19.80
90 South Dakota State 64.39 +13.20
79 Northern Iowa 66.75 +3.96
98 Missouri State 62.89 +7.82
104 Youngstown State 61.37 +16.22
71 Illinois State 68.66
Total Diff: -0.71
Home Field 3.44
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 52 North Dakota State
2 63 Villanova
3 71 Illinois State
4 77 McNeese State
5 79 Northern Iowa
6 81 Eastern Washington
7 85 Jacksonville State
8 86 Southern Illinois
9 87 Coastal Carolina
10 90 South Dakota State
11 93 New Hampshire
12 98 Missouri State
13 99 Chattanooga
14 101 SE Louisiana
15 104 Youngstown State
16 106 Indiana State
17 110 Sam Houston State
18 113 Eastern Kentucky
19 119 Harvard
20 120 Richmond
21 122 Fordham
22 123 William & Mary
23 125 Montana
24 133 Montana State
25 135 Northwestern State
Code:1. MVFC 63.06
2. Southland 50.43
3. Southern 50.05
4. Big Sky 49.97
5. Colonial 49.86
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the MVFC, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#2 in C-USA
#3 in the AAC
#8 in the Big 12
#9 in the ACC
#10 in the Big Ten and PAC-12
#14 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 66.05
2. MWC 64.03
3. MVFC 63.06
4. C-USA 61.47
5. MAC 57.95
6. SBC 55.93
7. SLC 50.43
8. Socon 50.05
9. BSC 49.97
10. CAA 49.86
What website did you pull from? I've been refreshing http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm for awhile, and it is still is showing the 9/27 results.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
USA Today. Sometimes they update first. Exact same format, just annoying ads and two separate pages for team and conference.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2014/team/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...14/conference/
Also might want to try ctrl-f5 on sagarin's website. I also tried his website this morning and kept getting last week's results. I went there just now and it was still sept 27. I forced refresh(ctrl-f5) and the oct 4 results came up. (wish I would've remembered to try that a couple hours ago)
Why did we drop against UNI? I would think their loss would have added points even though we didn't win by as much as expected.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Short version: we dropped more than they did. They only dropped by a half point. We dropped by roughly 1.75 points.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU1980
I am assuming, like I said two weeks ago, that our drop is mainly due to not covering the predicted spead, even though we got the W.
Yeah, we were like a 22 1/2 point favorite and won by 7 while they were an 8 1/2 favorite and lost by 1. The model missed our game by 15 1/2 but it only missed theirs by 9 1/2. The odds that the model would be at least that wrong about our game due entirely to chance were only about 13% while for UNI was about 24%. So the UNI result was 85% more likely than ours.Quote:
Originally Posted by Herd
Um...I don't get it? Why is UNI 5 and ISUb 16?
Because based on priors the model believed UNI was 8 1/2 points better and the model also knows how hard it is to predict these games. It expected, ISUb to win about 25% of the time just by chance, even if its evaluation of the skill of each team were 100% correct. So it's not going to flip those two teams just because of one new data point. Instead it reduced its estimate of UNI's skill by 1/2 a point and increased ISUb by 6. If they played again next week on the same field ISUb would be just a 2 point dog not 8 1/2 which is a fairly substantial impact. From about a 25% chance of victory up to about 45%.Quote:
Originally Posted by semobison
Ok...LOL,,,Its like ISUb stuck 5 dollars into a jar and pulled out 20 bucks!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Only if pulling out a $20 also increased your chances of pulling out another $20 the next time by 80%.Quote:
Originally Posted by semobison