Sagarin says

[thebootfitter]

Bad week for us(dropped 10 spots), good week for the MVFC. 80% of the conference makes up 50% of the top-16. The MVFC is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the rest of the top-5 conferences. The worst MVFC team(USD) is ranked 41. Socon is back in the top-5 conferences, and the OVC says goodbye for a bit. Indiana State shoots up to #16 after being barely unranked last week. Montana learns that if you barely beat UND, you barely stay in the top-25.

What website did you pull from? I've been refreshing http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm for awhile, and it is still is showing the 9/27 results.

[Hammersmith]

What website did you pull from? I've been refreshing http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm for awhile, and it is still is showing the 9/27 results.

USA Today. Sometimes they update first. Exact same format, just annoying ads and two separate pages for team and conference.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2014/team/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...14/conference/


Also might want to try ctrl-f5 on sagarin's website. I also tried his website this morning and kept getting last week's results. I went there just now and it was still sept 27. I forced refresh(ctrl-f5) and the oct 4 results came up. (wish I would've remembered to try that a couple hours ago)

[NDSU1980]

Bad week for us(dropped 10 spots), good week for the MVFC. 80% of the conference makes up 50% of the top-16. The MVFC is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the rest of the top-5 conferences. The worst MVFC team(USD) is ranked 41. Socon is back in the top-5 conferences, and the OVC says goodbye for a bit. Indiana State shoots up to #16 after being barely unranked last week. Montana learns that if you barely beat UND, you barely stay in the top-25.

Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff
 52	North Dakota State	74.15			
 67	Iowa State		69.86      +0.85     +20.00     +19.15
200	Weber State		44.93     +25.78     +17.00	 -8.78
239	Incarnate Word		28.21	  +49.38     +58.00	 +8.62
125	Montana			57.89	  +19.70     +12.00	 -7.70
155	Western Illinois	51.71	  +19.00      +7.00	-12.00
 86	Southern Illinois	65.05	  +12.54		
106	Indiana State		61.23	  +16.36		
162	South Dakota		50.91	  +19.80		
 90	South Dakota State	64.39	  +13.20		
 79	Northern Iowa		66.75	   +3.96		
 98	Missouri State		62.89	   +7.82		
104	Youngstown State	61.37	  +16.22		
					
 71	Illinois State		68.66			
						Total Diff:	 -0.71
	Home Field		 3.44

Sagarin FCS Top-25

 1   52  North Dakota State
 2   63  Villanova
 3   71  Illinois State
 4   77  McNeese State
 5   79  Northern Iowa
 6   81  Eastern Washington
 7   85  Jacksonville State
 8   86  Southern Illinois
 9   87  Coastal Carolina
10   90  South Dakota State
11   93  New Hampshire
12   98  Missouri State
13   99  Chattanooga
14  101  SE Louisiana
15  104  Youngstown State
16  106  Indiana State
17  110  Sam Houston State
18  113  Eastern Kentucky
19  119  Harvard
20  120  Richmond
21  122  Fordham
22  123  William & Mary
23  125  Montana
24  133  Montana State
25  135  Northwestern State

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	63.06
2.  Southland	50.43
3.  Southern	50.05
4.  Big Sky	49.97
5.  Colonial	49.86

FBS Comparisons

#1  in the MVFC, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#2  in C-USA
#3  in the AAC
#8  in the Big 12
#9  in the ACC
#10 in the Big Ten and PAC-12
#14 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

1.  AAC		66.05
2.  MWC		64.03
3.  MVFC	63.06
4.  C-USA	61.47
5.  MAC		57.95
6.  SBC		55.93
7.  SLC		50.43
8.  Socon 	50.05
9.  BSC		49.97
10. CAA 	49.86

Why did we drop against UNI? I would think their loss would have added points even though we didn't win by as much as expected.

[Hammersmith]

Why did we drop against UNI? I would think their loss would have added points even though we didn't win by as much as expected.

Short version: we dropped more than they did. They only dropped by a half point. We dropped by roughly 1.75 points.

[Herd]

I am assuming, like I said two weeks ago, that our drop is mainly due to not covering the predicted spead, even though we got the W.

[bisonaudit]

I am assuming, like I said two weeks ago, that our drop is mainly due to not covering the predicted spead, even though we got the W.

Yeah, we were like a 22 1/2 point favorite and won by 7 while they were an 8 1/2 favorite and lost by 1. The model missed our game by 15 1/2 but it only missed theirs by 9 1/2. The odds that the model would be at least that wrong about our game due entirely to chance were only about 13% while for UNI was about 24%. So the UNI result was 85% more likely than ours.

[semobison]

Um...I don't get it? Why is UNI 5 and ISUb 16?

[bisonaudit]

Um...I don't get it? Why is UNI 5 and ISUb 16?

Because based on priors the model believed UNI was 8 1/2 points better and the model also knows how hard it is to predict these games. It expected, ISUb to win about 25% of the time just by chance, even if its evaluation of the skill of each team were 100% correct. So it's not going to flip those two teams just because of one new data point. Instead it reduced its estimate of UNI's skill by 1/2 a point and increased ISUb by 6. If they played again next week on the same field ISUb would be just a 2 point dog not 8 1/2 which is a fairly substantial impact. From about a 25% chance of victory up to about 45%.

[semobison]

Because based on priors the model believed UNI was 8 1/2 points better and the model also knows how hard it is to predict these games. It expected, ISUb to win about 25% of the time just by chance, even if its evaluation of the skill of each team were 100% correct. So it's not going to flip those two teams just because of one new data point. Instead it reduced its estimate of UNI's skill by 1/2 a point and increased ISUb by 6. If they played again next week on the same field ISUb would be just a 2 point dog not 8 1/2 which is a fairly substantial impact. From about a 25% chance of victory up to about 45%.

Ok...LOL,,,Its like ISUb stuck 5 dollars into a jar and pulled out 20 bucks!

[bisonaudit]

Ok...LOL,,,Its like ISUb stuck 5 dollars into a jar and pulled out 20 bucks!

Only if pulling out a $20 also increased your chances of pulling out another $20 the next time by 80%.