Sagarin says

[thebootfitter]

Anyone want to take a stab at estimating the % chance of breaking Oklahoma's 47 game streak? Perfect this year plus 4 playoff game would be 40. So, 8 games into next year's schedule to break it.

I think we'd have to assume that all teams on the schedule, including projected playoff teams and those on next year's schedule, would have their current ratings.

We could use some specified early playoff projections or just assume that we play an average of the bottom quartile of the top 24 in the first/second round, average of the next quartile in the third round, average of the teams 7-12 in the semis, and then the second rated team in the finals (which right now is SDSU, isn't it?)

It seems to me that the odds are pretty low, but I am curious what the answer is too. Audit usually does the projections during playoff time, right? Is this a reasonable task?

(Or we could just say the odds are 50/50. Either we do it or we don't.)

[Green1]

So is every other religious or mythological text.

Belief in nothing, is still a belief.

Dip shit. You wanted to start it . You got it.

[Green1]

See me on the smack thread. We will spare everyone the pain of your response.

[stevdock]

Anyone want to take a stab at estimating the % chance of breaking Oklahoma's 47 game streak? Perfect this year plus 4 playoff game would be 40. So, 8 games into next year's schedule to break it.

I know this doesn't really answer your question but we are a breakaway DJ TD that turned into a fumble against Youngstown and one Pick 6 against Indy St away from being at 49 currently.

As of right now though we would be favored in every game for the rest of this year.

[El_Chapo]

We should be at 49 and 4 titles as well.

[acf2]

We should be at 49 and 4 titles as well.

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts....

[bisonaudit]

If you take the Sagarin ratings and pull out the top rated team from each AQ conference and then fill in the at-large teams again based on the ratings, then rank those 24 teams again based on Sagarin numbers and fill out a bracket without regard to any other polls, bracketology or geography, NDSU has a 13% chance of going 16-0. That would get you to 40 in a row, I think.

From there you can mess around with the odds of winning 7 or 8 more games. If you make them all true coin flips it's about 1 in 1,000 to tie the record of 47 and 1 in 2,000 to eclipse it.

If you make the rest of the games 75/25 it's about 1 in 60 to tie and 1 in 80 to exceed.

So that gives you an idea anyway.

[westnodak93bison]

If ifs and buts were candy and nuts....

We would want more beer

[thebootfitter]

If you take the Sagarin ratings and pull out the top rated team from each AQ conference and then fill in the at-large teams again based on the ratings, then rank those 24 teams again based on Sagarin numbers and fill out a bracket without regard to any other polls, bracketology or geography, NDSU has a 13% chance of going 16-0. That would get you to 40 in a row, I think.

From there you can mess around with the odds of winning 7 or 8 more games. If you make them all true coin flips it's about 1 in 1,000 to tie the record of 47 and 1 in 2,000 to eclipse it.

If you make the rest of the games 75/25 it's about 1 in 60 to tie and 1 in 80 to exceed.

So that gives you an idea anyway.

13% chance of another natty and undefeated year this year based on Sagarin figures? I know the game is played on the field for a reason and anything can happen, but I like those odds!

[Hammersmith]

Bad week for us(dropped 10 spots), good week for the MVFC. 80% of the conference makes up 50% of the top-16. The MVFC is nearly a two touchdown favorite over the rest of the top-5 conferences. The worst MVFC team(USD) is ranked 41. Socon is back in the top-5 conferences, and the OVC says goodbye for a bit. Indiana State shoots up to #16 after being barely unranked last week. Montana learns that if you barely beat UND, you barely stay in the top-25.

Sagarin's Week 7 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff
 52	North Dakota State	74.15			
 67	Iowa State		69.86      +0.85     +20.00     +19.15
200	Weber State		44.93     +25.78     +17.00	 -8.78
239	Incarnate Word		28.21	  +49.38     +58.00	 +8.62
125	Montana			57.89	  +19.70     +12.00	 -7.70
155	Western Illinois	51.71	  +19.00      +7.00	-12.00
 86	Southern Illinois	65.05	  +12.54		
106	Indiana State		61.23	  +16.36		
162	South Dakota		50.91	  +19.80		
 90	South Dakota State	64.39	  +13.20		
 79	Northern Iowa		66.75	   +3.96		
 98	Missouri State		62.89	   +7.82		
104	Youngstown State	61.37	  +16.22		
					
 71	Illinois State		68.66			
						Total Diff:	 -0.71
	Home Field		 3.44

Sagarin FCS Top-25

 1   52  North Dakota State
 2   63  Villanova
 3   71  Illinois State
 4   77  McNeese State
 5   79  Northern Iowa
 6   81  Eastern Washington
 7   85  Jacksonville State
 8   86  Southern Illinois
 9   87  Coastal Carolina
10   90  South Dakota State
11   93  New Hampshire
12   98  Missouri State
13   99  Chattanooga
14  101  SE Louisiana
15  104  Youngstown State
16  106  Indiana State
17  110  Sam Houston State
18  113  Eastern Kentucky
19  119  Harvard
20  120  Richmond
21  122  Fordham
22  123  William & Mary
23  125  Montana
24  133  Montana State
25  135  Northwestern State

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	63.06
2.  Southland	50.43
3.  Southern	50.05
4.  Big Sky	49.97
5.  Colonial	49.86

FBS Comparisons

#1  in the MVFC, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#2  in C-USA
#3  in the AAC
#8  in the Big 12
#9  in the ACC
#10 in the Big Ten and PAC-12
#14 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

1.  AAC		66.05
2.  MWC		64.03
3.  MVFC	63.06
4.  C-USA	61.47
5.  MAC		57.95
6.  SBC		55.93
7.  SLC		50.43
8.  Socon 	50.05
9.  BSC		49.97
10. CAA 	49.86