Well the CAA has not looked very good so far.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
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Well the CAA has not looked very good so far.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
With the exception of Villanova, they've looked awful.Quote:
Originally Posted by marenlee
Updated:::
Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Hawaii/UNI will be interesting. If I am reading this right, and now using the first column values since we went away from the predictor, it has UNI as a 13 point favorite. And why the hell can't we play Hawaii?
There isn't enough sun block in Honolulu.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Trust me, I can handle that with no problems! Dang, I could use Singapore airlines miles and fly first class on AS or UA.....Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Either Hawaii has gotten drastically better, or the PAC 12 isn't living up to the hype. I'm thinking a little of both, but more the latter. They were within a score of both Washington and Oregon State. UNI may be in for a surprise this weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Uni will chokeQuote:
Originally Posted by marenlee
Looks like we are up to 30 according to Sagarin. Favored against Nebraska in Lincoln...has a nice ring to it.
That seems about right since McNeese gave Nebraska everything they could handle last weekend.Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Just be a little careful as the numbers are not well connected yet. Some historical stuff still in there. I still, very intentionally, quote last years numbers when I tell my Husker friends that last year, NDSU was clearly the superior team.Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Thats a lot of travel, I dunno, there are lots of good teams that go out there and look crappy against HawaiiQuote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Hopefully they're not as dumbfounded by the Polynesian war chant as USA basketball was.Quote:
Originally Posted by missingnumber7
HMMMM...If they are I see that happening alot.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I get it, it's early.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
My point was more around this...holy shit it's Nebraska. Holy shit we'd probably hang with them...reagardless of the score it's just cool to be in such a different echelon right now. We are 5 or 6 years removed from losing 8 games in a year to teams like Mankato State. We just beat Iowa State and it was dominating. I LOVE this thread as it's one of the only ones (maybe the only one) that deals with facts/data...so I do know what you're saying. I go to Massey and Sagarin every week and run the simulations and nerd out...yep don't care.
So again, my post was more around the regard I have for Nebraska Football...and that at least in the last few years, we'd give them a run for their money anywhere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Let's not forget Weber State gave us all we could handle as well. We need to get much better by the time we play SDSU and UNI or we will be looking at 3rd place in the conference and possibly watching the playoffs from our easy chairs.Quote:
Originally Posted by stevdock
Not that I propose we rest on our laurels and accept UNI and SDSU as losses, but I think that even with three conference losses, we still get into the playoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by LITTLEGUYSINGREEN
Yeah, well there were 6 teams in the MVFC last year that were good enough to make the playoff and we only got 2.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Agree, this team doesn't have the margin for error that last years team did. Feels more like a better, little deeper 2010 team.
It's early...arm chair QBs (like me) are antsy.
In my opinion, I believe this year's team ranks somewhere between the the 2011 and 2012 National Championship teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by TateMosersneighbor
Tomorrow morning should be interesting.
Yeah, I would have to think ISU jumps up a bit after their 3-point win at Iowa and their showing at K-State last week. That should help push us up. MVFC might go up even more, especially if UNI wins or has a strong showing against Hawaii.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
The Missouri Valley did very well so far this weekend.
Those teams weren't NDSU. I don't want to see this team test it, but it will be given every, and I do mean every, benefit of the doubt by the selection committee. I don't know what else SHSU could have done last year to not make the playoffs, but NDSU will be given even more latitude. Then by default, just about everyone in between the autobid and them in the MVFC will get to go along for the ride. This is what the MVFC wants when NDSU does have a bad season. Just bad enough to bring 3 or 4 teams along to the playoffs with them.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk
Well, NDSU falls to 37. We are going to have to whoop some butt for another top 25, I'd think.
MVFC is coming back to earth with some non-P5 FBS conferences overtaking them.
Probably the most shocking thing for me was Villinova and SDSU are #2 and #3 respectively in FCS....
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm
My first thought was "ouch, we fell 7 slots." Then I realized that last week's #30 was probably too high, given the performance against Weber, so 37 is about right given what we've seen so far this year.
I suspect it's more about the data becoming more connected than anything else. And this year's data replacing historical data in the model.
17-18 point favorites in Montana. Sounds about right.
Sagarin's Week 4 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
37 North Dakota State 77.37
73 Iowa State 68.50 +4.90 +20.00 +15.10
193 Weber State 46.11 +27.29 +17.00 -10.29
232 Incarnate Word 36.90 +44.44 +58.00 +13.56
95 Montana 63.51 +17.83
166 Western Illinois 51.52 +21.88
88 Southern Illinois 65.00 +16.34
160 Indiana State 52.52 +28.82
147 South Dakota 55.75 +17.65
64 South Dakota State 69.82 +11.52
85 Northern Iowa 65.33 +8.07
109 Missouri State 60.68 +12.72
110 Youngstown State 60.56 +20.78
104 Illinois State 62.15
Total Diff: +18.37
Home Field 3.97
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 37 North Dakota State
2 62 Villanova
3 64 South Dakota State
4 67 Eastern Washington
5 83 Jacksonville State
6 85 Northern Iowa
7 88 Southern Illinois
8 91 McNeese State
9 95 Montana
10 97 New Hampshire
11 103 Coastal Carolina
12 104 Illinois State
13 105 Chattanooga
14 106 SE Louisiana
15 109 Missouri State
16 110 Youngstown State
17 114 William & Mary
18 121 Princeton
19 122 Montana State
20 124 Liberty
21 125 Richmond
22 128 Samford
23 129 Northern Arizona
24 130 Sam Houston State
25 131 Tennessee State
Code:1. MVFC 61.77
2. Ohio Valley 53.53
3. Colonial 53.29
4. Big Sky 52.68
5. Southland 51.07
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the MVFC, MWC, C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#2 in the AAC
#5 in the Big Ten
#6 in the Big 12
#7 in the ACC
#9 in the PAC-12
#11 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 65.99
2. MWC 64.39
3. MVFC 61.77
4. C-USA 61.16
5. MAC 58.45
6. SBC 56.69
7. CAA 55.01
8. OVC 54.64
9. BSC 53.50
10. SoCon 51.42
Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.97 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Montana 90.6 87.4% (+3.2% from last week)
Western Illinois 96.4 97.7% (-1.3%)
Southern Illinois 88.6 81.5% (+7.1%)
Indiana State 98.3 99.1% (-0.8%)
South Dakota 90.4 88.6% (+1.8%)
South Dakota State 80.3 86.8% (-6.5%)
Northern Iowa 72.5 61.6% (+10.9%)
Missouri State 82.7 92.8% (-10.1%)
Youngstown State 93.7 92.5% (+1.2%)
12-0 31.0% (+3.0% from last week)
11-1 40.1% (-1.0%)
10-2 21.5% (-1.5%)
9-3 6.2% (-0.4%)
8-4 1.1% (=0.0%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0003%
4-8 0.00001%
3-9 0.00000004%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Since I enjoy computer rankings like Sagarin that combine FCS and FBS, and I don't know where else to put it, I'd like to point out this weeks Massey Rating has NDSU up 7 spots to 21 (23rd in power rating), with the 46th best offense and 11th best defense in all of CFB.
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.ph...2014&sub=11590
Rest of top 10 of FCS (and ranking)
2. SDSU (67)
3. SIU (68)
4. UNI
5. Missouri St (87)
6. EWU (89)
7. Illinois St (91)
8. UNI (95)
9. Villanova (97)
10. Coastal Carolina (103)
MVFC 7 out of top 8. LOL@Big Fluffy.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUBowler
UNI twice?Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSUBowler
Remove the first UNI and add Youngstown State(106) in at #10. So 7 of the top-10 are MVFC. 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldmantutters
Yeah sorry this ^^^^. I am not sure how I messed that up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
1. NDSU (21)
2. SDSU (67)
3. SIU (68)
4. Missouri St (87)
5. EWU (89)
6. Illinois St (91)
7. UNI (95)
8. Villanova (97)
9. Coastal Carolina (103)
10. YSU (106)
they're that good.Quote:
Originally Posted by oldmantutters
Sagarin's Week 5 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
43 North Dakota State 76.31
61 Iowa State 70.93 +1.32 +20.00 +18.68
196 Weber State 45.51 +26.74 +17.00 -9.74
231 Incarnate Word 35.54 +44.83 +58.00 +13.17
100 Montana 62.24 +18.13 +12.00 -6.13
174 Western Illinois 50.28 +21.97
101 Southern Illinois 62.18 +18.19
151 Indiana State 54.16 +26.21
150 South Dakota 54.41 +17.84
70 South Dakota State 69.34 +11.03
82 Northern Iowa 66.50 +5.75
104 Missouri State 62.04 +10.21
111 Youngstown State 60.77 +19.60
110 Illinois State 61.38
Total Diff: +15.98
Home Field 4.06
Sagarin Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 43 North Dakota State
2 70 South Dakota State
3 75 Villanova
4 77 Eastern Washington
5 82 Northern Iowa
6 87 Jacksonville State
7 93 New Hampshire
8 97 Coastal Carolina
9 98 McNeese State
10 100 Montana
11 101 Southern Illinois
12 104 Missouri State
13 106 Chattanooga
14 110 Illinois State
15 111 Youngstown State
16 112 SE Louisiana
17 116 Harvard
18 118 Montana State
19 121 Sam Houston State
20 124 Princeton
21 129 William & Mary
22 130 Eastern Kentucky
23 136 Richmond
24 138 Cal Poly
25 139 Eastern Illinois
Code:1. MVFC 61.51
2. Colonial 52.48
3. Ohio Valley 52.01
4. Big Sky 51.92
5. Southland 51.53
FBS Comparisons
Non-P5 Top 10 ConferencesCode:#1 in the MVFC, C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#2 in the MWC and AAC
#6 in the Big Ten and ACC
#8 in the Big 12
#10 in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC
Code:1. AAC 66.08
2. MWC 64.33
3. C-USA 61.58
4. MVFC 61.51
5. MAC 58.61
6. SBC 56.66
7. CAA 52.48
8. OVC 52.01
9. BSC 51.92
10. SLC 51.53
Audit, you still out there? Many of us are waiting for your bell curve work......
Taking a little vacation. Away from the computer until Tuesday.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Unacceptable.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit