Sagarin says

[Hammersmith]

Tomorrow morning should be interesting.

[thebootfitter]

Tomorrow morning should be interesting.

Yeah, I would have to think ISU jumps up a bit after their 3-point win at Iowa and their showing at K-State last week. That should help push us up. MVFC might go up even more, especially if UNI wins or has a strong showing against Hawaii.

[HerdBoy]

The Missouri Valley did very well so far this weekend.

[td577]

Yeah, well there were 6 teams in the MVFC last year that were good enough to make the playoff and we only got 2.

Those teams weren't NDSU. I don't want to see this team test it, but it will be given every, and I do mean every, benefit of the doubt by the selection committee. I don't know what else SHSU could have done last year to not make the playoffs, but NDSU will be given even more latitude. Then by default, just about everyone in between the autobid and them in the MVFC will get to go along for the ride. This is what the MVFC wants when NDSU does have a bad season. Just bad enough to bring 3 or 4 teams along to the playoffs with them.

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[THEsocalledfan]

Well, NDSU falls to 37. We are going to have to whoop some butt for another top 25, I'd think.

MVFC is coming back to earth with some non-P5 FBS conferences overtaking them.

Probably the most shocking thing for me was Villinova and SDSU are #2 and #3 respectively in FCS....

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

[SoCalBison]

My first thought was "ouch, we fell 7 slots." Then I realized that last week's #30 was probably too high, given the performance against Weber, so 37 is about right given what we've seen so far this year.

[Hammersmith]

I suspect it's more about the data becoming more connected than anything else. And this year's data replacing historical data in the model.

[THEsocalledfan]

17-18 point favorites in Montana. Sounds about right.

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin's Week 4 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff
 37	North Dakota State	77.37			
 73	Iowa State		68.50      +4.90     +20.00     +15.10
193	Weber State		46.11	  +27.29     +17.00	-10.29
232	Incarnate Word		36.90	  +44.44     +58.00	+13.56
 95	Montana			63.51	  +17.83		
166	Western Illinois	51.52	  +21.88		
 88	Southern Illinois	65.00	  +16.34		
160	Indiana State		52.52	  +28.82		
147	South Dakota		55.75	  +17.65		
 64	South Dakota State	69.82	  +11.52		
 85	Northern Iowa		65.33	   +8.07		
109	Missouri State		60.68	  +12.72		
110	Youngstown State	60.56	  +20.78		
					
104	Illinois State		62.15			
						Total Diff:	+18.37
	Home Field		 3.97

Sagarin FCS Top-25

 1   37  North Dakota State
 2   62  Villanova
 3   64  South Dakota State
 4   67  Eastern Washington
 5   83  Jacksonville State
 6   85  Northern Iowa
 7   88  Southern Illinois
 8   91  McNeese State
 9   95  Montana
10   97  New Hampshire
11  103  Coastal Carolina
12  104  Illinois State
13  105  Chattanooga
14  106  SE Louisiana
15  109  Missouri State
16  110  Youngstown State
17  114  William & Mary
18  121  Princeton
19  122  Montana State
20  124  Liberty
21  125  Richmond
22  128  Samford
23  129  Northern Arizona
24  130  Sam Houston State
25  131  Tennessee State

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	61.77
2.  Ohio Valley 53.53
3.  Colonial	53.29
4.  Big Sky	52.68
5.  Southland	51.07

FBS Comparisons

#1  in the MVFC, MWC, C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#2  in the AAC
#5  in the Big Ten
#6  in the Big 12
#7  in the ACC 
#9  in the PAC-12
#11 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

1.  AAC		65.99
2.  MWC		64.39
3.  MVFC	61.77
4.  C-USA	61.16
5.  MAC		58.45
6.  SBC		56.69
7.  CAA		55.01
8.  OVC 	54.64
9.  BSC		53.50
10. SoCon	51.42

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.97 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Montana 90.6 87.4% (+3.2% from last week)
Western Illinois 96.4 97.7% (-1.3%)
Southern Illinois 88.6 81.5% (+7.1%)
Indiana State 98.3 99.1% (-0.8%)
South Dakota 90.4 88.6% (+1.8%)
South Dakota State 80.3 86.8% (-6.5%)
Northern Iowa 72.5 61.6% (+10.9%)
Missouri State 82.7 92.8% (-10.1%)
Youngstown State 93.7 92.5% (+1.2%)

12-0 31.0% (+3.0% from last week)
11-1 40.1% (-1.0%)
10-2 21.5% (-1.5%)
9-3 6.2% (-0.4%)
8-4 1.1% (=0.0%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0003%
4-8 0.00001%
3-9 0.00000004%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.