Sagarin says

[marenlee]

Ovc over colonial. Give me a break. Lets wait a few weeks for it to be connected.

Well the CAA has not looked very good so far.

[tony]

Well the CAA has not looked very good so far.

With the exception of Villanova, they've looked awful.

[bisonaudit]

Updated:::

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.52 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Incarnate Word 99.98% (+0.2% from last week)
Montana 87.4% (-2.7%)
Western Illinois 97.7% (+0.2%)
Southern Illinois 81.5% (-4.7%)
Indiana State 99.1% (-0.1%)
South Dakota 88.6% (-4.4%)
South Dakota State 86.8% (+4.5%)
Northern Iowa 61.6% (-7.5%)
Missouri State 92.8% (+4.7%)
Youngstown State 92.5% (+2.5%)

12-0 28.0% (-2.9% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+0.7%)
10-2 23.0% (+1.6%)
9-3 6.6% (+0.5%)
8-4 1.1% (+0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0002%
4-8 0.000003%
3-9 0.00000002%
2-10 0.000000000003%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[THEsocalledfan]

Hawaii/UNI will be interesting. If I am reading this right, and now using the first column values since we went away from the predictor, it has UNI as a 13 point favorite. And why the hell can't we play Hawaii?

[bisonaudit]

Hawaii/UNI will be interesting. If I am reading this right, and now using the first column values since we went away from the predictor, it has UNI as a 13 point favorite. And why the hell can't we play Hawaii?

There isn't enough sun block in Honolulu.

[THEsocalledfan]

There isn't enough sun block in Honolulu.

Trust me, I can handle that with no problems! Dang, I could use Singapore airlines miles and fly first class on AS or UA.....

[marenlee]

Hawaii/UNI will be interesting. If I am reading this right, and now using the first column values since we went away from the predictor, it has UNI as a 13 point favorite. And why the hell can't we play Hawaii?

Either Hawaii has gotten drastically better, or the PAC 12 isn't living up to the hype. I'm thinking a little of both, but more the latter. They were within a score of both Washington and Oregon State. UNI may be in for a surprise this weekend.

[westnodak93bison]

Either Hawaii has gotten drastically better, or the PAC 12 isn't living up to the hype. I'm thinking a little of both, but more the latter. They were within a score of both Washington and Oregon State. UNI may be in for a surprise this weekend.

Uni will choke

[TateMosersneighbor]

Looks like we are up to 30 according to Sagarin. Favored against Nebraska in Lincoln...has a nice ring to it.

[stevdock]

Looks like we are up to 30 according to Sagarin. Favored against Nebraska in Lincoln...has a nice ring to it.

That seems about right since McNeese gave Nebraska everything they could handle last weekend.