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The MW rarely has the best G5 football presence but they do put multiple schools in the NCAA's. However, the addition of Sac State or Davis would not be done to improve football or basketball.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
Location location location...
Scary, not the scenarios, but me potentially making a good prediction. :rofl:Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
Dealing from strength right now? B1G, BXII
Dealing from weakness right now? PAC*, SDSUred
UU has to really feel jammed: finally get to hob-knob with Cali-Stan but best (only?) option is BXII.
And MWC is just waiting for the fog of war to clear to see what shot they do or do not have.
*closest to "strength" of that group are CU and AU; reports are those are BXII 'prime' targets, pun intended
Oh I get it, I’m just saying for all that “NDSU doesn’t check the basketball box” talk, go check out the basketball facilities at UCD and Sac lolQuote:
Originally Posted by MWC
Makes the Bison Sports Arena (our old arena) look great in comparison. Yikes!
Yep, and the ultimate point is that the only thing holding any school in the PAC right now is that the other conferences aren’t actively expanding. I would guess that any school in the PAC is saying yes to the B10 now, and the majority are probably saying yes to the B12.Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Sicatoka
Colorado leaving and at least another big brand school to follow is not going to help the PAC get their media deal done. And it was already looking like a bad media deal.
I don't recall saying that NDSU doesn't check the basketball box. I am sure your basketball is fine. I have been in the the basketball arenas at Sac State and Davis. They are not impressive. However, as I said they would not be added for football or basketball..They would be added because they are in the neighborhood.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
What I see is NDSU has two positives. Fine academics and an excellent FCS football program. You also have two things that may not be appealing enough to have MW presidents want to add you. Fargo is far away and not a large market. There are a lot of factors that go into adding schools to any conference.
Does that mean you are a no go? I would say not but I don't have a say.
Watch Buffalos trample the PAC in Prime time.
CU Regents meeting is at 4 Central.
(Not sure if streamed, maybe: https://cu.new.swagit.com/views/92/ )
I know I’m just giving you grief since I have the chance :)Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
I’m curious, any talk in the Nevada sphere about enough dominoes falling for a PAC invite? Or what’s the scuttlebutt around your neck of the woods?
I would not say Nevada is in the mix for the Pac at all. Maybe if some sort of merger occurred. One of the things that may keep the MW from being gutted is the cost to leave. 17 to 34 million is a lotta scratch to have to pay to go to a fairly unstable Pac ?Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
If it got to that point, could a majority vote to change the exit clawback? Or is it more difficult than that?Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
That would seem to be the question. I believe they could vote to change the bylaws...but...if you announce you are leaving, you no longer have a vote..Catch 22.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
At this point the PAC’s meeting this afternoon has to be about adding SDSU. That shoe should drop by miller time tomorrow.
Oregon and UW gotta be making some pretty serious phone calls right about now…
I would guess SMU. SDSU has to wait until 2025. SMU can join in 2024.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
Only if they pony up cash. The AAC has a 27 month notice period and $10M exit fee. Cinny, UCF, and Houston recently paid $18M to exit early. UConn paid $17M a few years back. I'd expect closer to $20M+ this time.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
I don't think money is an issue for SMU. Deep booster pockets in Dallas.Quote:
Originally Posted by taper
SDSU can’t afford the 17 million buyout because the PAC deal can’t cover it. That’s probably why they pulled out of the mogeQuote:
Originally Posted by MWC
I think they at least need to know what they’d get paid in the PAC. The PAC needs them and/or SMU so bad they really can’t negotiate giving them a smaller share. $17M is too much apparently but at some point the PAC media deal should take a considerable chunk out of that.Quote:
Originally Posted by B.Schlossman Fan Club
Not knowing that drove CU away (especially when they did know what the BXII would get them).Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
Not knowing that will keep SMU and SDSUred away until they do.
PAC is in a pickle with all of this, they will need to name at least one school to replace Colorado by the time they exit, and maybe more. They need inventory to complete a reasonable media deal.Quote:
Originally Posted by taper
Exit fees will be pretty high for any MWC or AAC teams, and higher if it's a 1 year move instead of 2. I still feel its likely SMU/SDSU or anyone else invited will find a way to make it happen, even if that requires shuffling budget money around and taking out loans.
SDSU has the 17 million..They were trying to avoid the 34 million dollar nut.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
The only thing that has changed is they will have to leave after the 24/25 fiscal year instead of next July. That will cost 17 million..
Of course the Pac 10 or the MWC may no longer be a conference by then.
Stark, but a real (likely?) possibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
Man you guys love drama. Is that a fan forum thing?
Both the PAC and MWC will survive just fine. Both will likely be knocked down a peg, but they will survive nonetheless
and the ensuing movement from all of this can only help NDSU get into an FBS conference
I mean every major sports outlet is saying this might be the end so it’s not just us in the tinfoil hat crew. A member school told the PAC “give us the numbers or we’re out” and the PAC decided to not give them the numbers. Every other school in the conference obviously saw that. Oof.Quote:
Originally Posted by WhoRepsTheLurker
But yes, hoping for just enough shakeup to beam us up without changing the status quo too much. We won’t know what to really expect until the PAC gets a media deal done. Contrary to their public messaging, every day that goes by they lose negotiating power.
Are they really though? I just see the usual click seekers with dramatic headlinesQuote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
It is very hard to kill a conference
USA Today, Forbes, SI, ESPN, Oregon local media, Arizona local media, etc. all have articles with some flavor of PAC12 on the brink” that come up if you just search “PAC12”.Quote:
Originally Posted by WhoRepsTheLurker
Semantics, but if over half the conference leaves and is replaced by G5 teams im calling that a collapse of the conference. The WAC is apparently still around but I would hardly claim that it survived after it got raided by the MW. The PAC brand and name will continue in some fashion or another regardless but the conference as we know it has a decent likelihood of crumbling.
This very much. Very different from vanishingQuote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
Also, WAC and PAC are two different beasts entirely
But yeah, semantics (and drama)
PAC will do what they need to survive, and so will MWC
CUSA might be in trouble though ;)
A conference is definitely hard to kill, but the PAC seems to be trying their best. There're reports ESPN offered $24.5M per school, PAC demanded $50M so ESPN left and signed the B12 for $31M. Now there aren't any major network timeslots left except a single after-dark. Not a whole lot of money for that.
Any G5 would jump at $10M, but for PAC that's a disaster. Every school is budgeting ~$30M, that gap can't be made up. Everybody that can leave will, which is a death spiral for a media deal.
If things become that dire, I can see PAC helping SDSU or SMU with exit fee costs to accelerate the move.Quote:
Originally Posted by MWC
Agree, its those at the bottom of the chain that are in most jeopardy.Quote:
Originally Posted by WhoRepsTheLurker
PAC will be fine, and MWC will also likely exist in some form, perhaps a little weaker.
The real danger for CUSA is if AAC loses a few schools, and MWC also takes a couple like UTEP/NMSU/SHSU.
Not impossible CUSA could be left with FIU, JSU, LT and Kennesaw. SFA, Tarleton and UCA on deck there. If they survive, it could get ugly.
Plenty of pundits have written off the Big 12 in the past as being "on life support" or some variation of that on two different occasions - first when Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, and Texas A&M all left in the 2010/2011 timeframe and then again when it broke that Texas and Oklahoma were leaving. Ironically the Big 12 has gone from the raided to the raiders and I'd tend to think the same will happen with the Pac as long as their leadership isn't completely inept - they'll just be plundering from outside the P5 just as the Big 12 did to stabilize itself until it could snatch Colorado back.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
See: Colorado (and likely soon Arizona)Quote:
Originally Posted by taper
With what money? The deepest pockets are gone already (USC/UCLA).Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
Based on how their media deal negotiations have gone so far, is that a good assumption.Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
And plundering outside the P5, how low can the PAC go before Cali-Stan won't tolerate the new "peers". Folks claim Boise State. I don't see Cali-Stan voting for something that was a JC in the last 50 or so years.
Certainly. The PAC could come back. I think Finebaum (who’s just a wild-ass non-SEC hater at this point) is the only one saying to put the fork in them already.Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
But the problem remains: there is no viable TV deal even being discussed at this point. Until then the only thing that is holding the PAC together is that conferences aren’t actively expanding right now. As soon as the B12 or B10 picks up the phone that all changes.
Until that happens, the PAC is waist deep in it. After SDSU and SMU I’m not sure they really have viable options for replacement that aren’t DOA with the big schools in the conference.
That little dweeb cracks me upQuote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
PAC will figure it out
Surly the commissioner did not reject ESPN without consulting the schools. So this is on them too and there will be some sense of solidarity that they will use to get through this
If Oregon gets into the ACC I never want to hear anyone talk about tRaVeL as a reason why we have to stay in jv
If NDSU had Oregon money travel in any conference wouldn't be an issue for them either.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevin
Circumstances are obviously different for a P5 school that regularly sees 50-60k at home games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Professor Chaos
Oregon is still a potential B1G candidate. All the top conferences are interested.
$140m athletic budget, and Phil Knight has given them around $1B. Completely different universe from where we are.
It's the G5 conferences with media deals often in the $2-4m range where travel costs are a concern.
Can't Chapo make some shoes?
On top of that Football travel isn’t our problem. Our football program would have no problem traveling to Florida every other week if it had to.Quote:
Originally Posted by BigHorns
It’s the non-football sports that don’t pay for themselves as is that would have the problem. That’s the piece that Lakes can’t wrap his mind around.
Our travel wouldn't be a major issue in some G5 leagues. Softball, cross country, golf, baseball and track literally travel all over anyway, if they play conference games they just go to one destination for a series of games(baseball and softball). Wrestling is in a different conference.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDSU92
That leaves basketball, volleyball and women's soccer. This travel thing is an immensely overblown issue unless we are joining a bus league. Fargo also isn't Macomb, it is relatively easy to fly into.