Sagarin says

I love this thread. Seriously.

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

And here we go. Four touchdown favorite going into Weber State. Closest game prediction is UNI by a TD. MVFC top three, four of top six, and six of top twelve. MVFC also a TD favorite over the next best conference.


Sagarin's Week 2 Predictions

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      Sagarin  Predict    Result Diff 
 40North Dakota State76.45
 70Iowa State68.39  +4.90    +20.00+15.10
197Weber State44.78  +28.51
218Incarnate Word39.27  +40.34
103Montana62.13  +17.48
177Western Illinois49.09  +24.20
 90Southern Illinois64.87  +14.74
188Indiana State46.54  +33.07
156South Dakota53.27  +20.02
 79South Dakota State67.08  +12.53
 82Northern Iowa66.57  +6.72
133Missouri State57.30  +15.99
107Youngstown State62.25  +17.36

108Illinois State62.23
Total Diff:+15.10
Home Field 3.16

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Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

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1  40  North Dakota State
 2  79  South Dakota State
 3  82  Northern Iowa
 4  84  Eastern Washington
 5  89  New Hampshire
 6  90  Southern Illinois
 7  94  Villanova
 8  99  Jacksonville State
 9  103  SE Louisiana
10  106  McNeese State
11  107  Youngstown State
12  108  Illinois State
13  109  Chattanooga
14  110  Montana
15  116  Tennessee State
16  119  Princeton
17  121  Richmond
18  123  Eastern Illinois
19  127  William & Mary
20  128  Harvard
21  130  Montana State
22  132  Coastal Carolina
23  133  Missouri State
24  134  Sam Houston State
25  136  Central Arkansas

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Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC60.86
2.  Colonial53.62
3.  Ohio Valley 53.22
4.  Big Sky52.26
5.  Southland50.29

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I will have to say that SDSU is way overrated based on this.

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Originally Posted by X-Factor

I will have to say that SDSU is way overrated based on this.

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The silly computer doesn't know their QB is on the shelf for 6 - 8 weeks.

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Originally Posted by X-Factor

I will have to say that SDSU is way overrated based on this.

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There's not much reliability this early in the season. As more data is created from games played, it should balance itself out. If they really are that good, they'll stay high. If not, they'll drop down. You can't really read too much into these numbers until several weeks into the season.

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Originally Posted by bisonaudit

The silly computer doesn't know their QB is on the shelf for 6 - 8 weeks.

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And there's this too. Though that backup sure played well against Mizzou.

Its well know the data is not well connected. It'd about as accurate as a media poll.

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Originally Posted by Tatanka

I love this thread. Seriously.

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I need to get to know it a bit better, but I will check it out again...it has sparked my interest. :D

I think it's very interested that we are already favored in every game for the rest of the year at this very second. Also I think at this second you could make the case that we could be favored in every game until Iowa in 2016.

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Originally Posted by stevdock

I think it's very interested that we are already favored in every game for the rest of the year at this very second. Also I think at this second you could make the case that we could be favored in every game until Iowa in 2016.

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We're spoiled, I like it though
Attachment 4313

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Originally Posted by TNbison

We're spoiled, I like it though
Attachment 4313

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54/55 straight wins and f!*& straight championships????? Sounds good to me!

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Originally Posted by Bookem

54/55 straight wins and f!*& straight championships????? Sounds good to me!

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and the cart has left the horse in the dust

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Originally Posted by Bookem

54/55 straight wins and f!*& straight championships????? Sounds good to me!

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We're talkin minimum 8 peat

We didn't beat Sagarin's "spread" against Weber, but I suspect they'll go up more than we'll go down. Because Iowa State played K-State so well, we'll probably get a boost from that and still gain a point or two.

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Originally Posted by thebootfitter

We didn't beat Sagarin's "spread" against Weber, but I suspect they'll go up more than we'll go down. Because Iowa State played K-State so well, we'll probably get a boost from that and still gain a point or two.

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We were within the standard deviation, so it shouldn't be a huge move, but that's what I expect as well.

Numbers look to be adjusted already......very early today. Interesting spread of the numbers. Anywhere from 26 to 45 depending on what number you use.

Holy hell in a handbasket. The MVFC is now the highest rated non-P5 conference. We're looking down on the entire G5.

Glad you're up hammer. I can't wait for your analysis today!

We are a 40 pt. favorite over IW.

Well, at least we have Gameday to look forward to.

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Holy hell in a handbasket. The MVFC is now the highest rated non-P5 conference. We're looking down on the entire G5.

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Soooooo now NDSU would need to move DOWN to be in the FBS?

I keed... I keed... Or do I?

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Originally Posted by Tatanka

Soooooo now NDSU would need to move DOWN to be in the FBS?

I keed... I keed... Or do I?

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Well, there are only two, count'em two, G5 teams rated higher than us at the moment. UCF & Cincinnati.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Well, there are only two, count'em two, G5 teams rated higher than us at the moment. UCF & Cincinnati.

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Three. Technically BYU is in the G5 as an independent (just as Notre Dame is in the P5 as an independent)

Honestly, I've got to take these numbers with a grain of salt. (USD in the top-25?? There is some weird s--t in here.) First, NDSU cracks the top-30. That gives everyone who played/s us a boost. That could be a reason the MVFC actually increased its lead over the other conferences. Also, UNI & SIU just shot up the rankings this week. SDSU fell big-time, but that was more about other teams moving up past them, than their rating going down. Iowa State plummeted. Incarnate Word is the twelfth-worst in DI according to the ratings.

Looking at conferences, the MVFC has extended the gap between the next closest FCS conference to over eight and a half points. As I mentioned before, the MVFC now only trails the P5 conferences; passing the MWC and AAC. The Southland drops two spots out of the top-five and the Southern reclaims its traditional spot as one of the five. Looks like OVC is here to stay for awhile(having said that, I've probably jinxed them to drop out next week).

By these ratings, NDSU would be:

#1 in the MVFC, MWC, C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#3 in the AAC
#4 in the Big Ten
#5 in the Big 12
#6 in the ACC
#7 in the PAC-12
#8 in the SEC

So on to the show.

Sagarin's Week 3 Predictions

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 30        North Dakota State        78.98                       
100        Iowa State                63.53    +11.93    +20.00      +8.07
205        Weber State                44.23          +31.23    +17.00        -14.23
241        Incarnate Word                33.51          +48.99               
 74        Montana                        67.09          +15.41               
172        Western Illinois        50.82          +24.64               
 62        Southern Illinois        70.41          +12.09               
175        Indiana State                50.01          +32.49               
121        South Dakota                59.19          +16.27               
 73        South Dakota State        67.34          +15.16               
 58        Northern Iowa                71.53          +3.93               
143        Missouri State                55.61          +19.85               
105        Youngstown State        62.88          +19.62               
                                       
 72        Illinois State                67.74                       
                                                Total Diff:        -6.16
        Home Field                3.52

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Sagarin FCS Top-25

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1  30  North Dakota State
 2  58  Northern Iowa
 3  62  Southern Illinois
 4  70  Villanova
 5  72  Illinois State
 6  73  South Dakota State
 7  74  Montana
 8  78  McNeese State
 9  81  William & Mary
10  84  Eastern Washington
11  87  New Hampshire
12  89  Bethune-Cookman
13  94  SE Louisiana
14  97  Jacksonville State
15  101  Coastal Carolina
16  104  Montana State
17  105  Youngstown State
18  113  Eastern Kentucky
19  119  Tennessee State
20  121  South Dakota
21  122  Princeton
22  123  Chattanooga
23  128  Liberty
24  129  Portland State
25  130  Northern Arizona

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Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        63.69
2.  Colonial        55.01
3.  Ohio Valley 54.64
4.  Big Sky        53.50
5.  Southern        51.42

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by NDSUBowler

Three. Technically BYU is in the G5 as an independent (just as Notre Dame is in the P5 as an independent)

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Quite right. I was looking at the conference page and carelessly skipped over the independents.

dropped a spot in the predictor tho

I thought we played for championships.

If everyone enjoys this bizarre d#ck measuring contest maybe we should go FBS.

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Originally Posted by NDB2

I thought we played for championships.

If everyone enjoys this bizarre d#ck measuring contest maybe we should go FBS.

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Good one!!

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Originally Posted by NDB2

I thought we played for championships.

If everyone enjoys this bizarre d#ck measuring contest maybe we should go FBS.

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http://i.imgur.com/VKaWX.gif

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Originally Posted by NDB2

I thought we played for championships.

If everyone enjoys this bizarre d#ck measuring contest maybe we should go FBS.

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Yes, we currently play for championships. Yes, we enjoy looking at Sagarin ratings to see where we rank. And yes, NDSU should go FBS. The only dick here is you.

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Originally Posted by SDbison

Yes, we currently play for championships. Yes, we enjoy looking at Sagarin ratings to see where we rank. And yes, NDSU should go FBS. The only dick here is you.

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good one!!

:rofl:

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Originally Posted by SDbison

Yes, we currently play for championships. Yes, we enjoy looking at Sagarin ratings to see where we rank. And yes, NDSU should go FBS. The only dick here is you.

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Sorry to hear about your small penis.

How was Sioux Falls Gay Day?

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Quite right. I was looking at the conference page and carelessly skipped over the independents.

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How is UNI gaining on us? We were almost 7 points better then them last week, now less than 4. Take off 3 points for being at home and it's now dead even with them.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SDbison

Yes, we currently play for championships. Yes, we enjoy looking at Sagarin ratings to see where we rank. And yes, NDSU should go FBS. The only dick here is you.

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:rofl:

Check rep SD!!

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.52 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Incarnate Word 99.98% (+0.2% from last week)
Montana 87.3% (-2.8%)
Western Illinois 97.7% (+0.2%)
Southern Illinois 81.5% (-4.7%)
Indiana State 99.1% (-0.1%)
South Dakota 88.5% (-4.5%)
South Dakota State 86.9% (+4.6%)
Northern Iowa 61.5% (-7.6%)
Missouri State 92.8% (+4.7%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (+2.6%)

12-0 28.0% (-2.9% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+0.7%)
10-2 23.0% (+1.6%)
9-3 6.7% (+0.6%)
8-4 1.1% (+0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0002%
4-8 0.000003%
3-9 0.00000001%
2-10 0.000000000003%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NDSU1980

How is UNI gaining on us? We were almost 7 points better then them last week, now less than 4. Take off 3 points for being at home and it's now dead even with them.

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No idea really. We moved up in both place and rating, but UNI moved up more. And they didn't even play yesterday. Give it another couple weeks to get enough data on this season instead of whatever historical model he uses to start off with. This stuff is pretty meaningless and just for fun at the best of times, and the first few weeks of the season take that to the extreme.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences
Code:
1. MVFC 63.69
2. Colonial 55.01
3. Ohio Valley 54.64
4. Big Sky 53.50
5. Southern 51.42

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Would love for this to be top 10 non P5 conferences

Dammit. Sagarin must have updated after the Delaware/Delaware State game. Here are the updated numbers. OVC & CAA swap spots on the conference list. Wofford in, Portland State out on the top-25. A few swaps in the top-25 as well.


Sagarin's Week 3 Predictions (Updated)

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                              Sagarin          Predict    Result        Diff 
 30        North Dakota State        79.01                       
101        Iowa State                63.54    +11.96    +20.00      +8.04
204        Weber State                44.29    +31.21    +17.00    -14.21
241        Incarnate Word                33.60    +48.92               
 74        Montana                        67.02    +15.50               
171        Western Illinois        50.94    +24.56               
 62        Southern Illinois        70.38    +12.14               
175        Indiana State                50.16    +32.36               
121        South Dakota                59.19    +16.31               
 73        South Dakota State        67.42    +15.10               
 58        Northern Iowa                71.54      +3.96               
142        Missouri State                55.67    +19.83               
104        Youngstown State        62.97    +19.55               
                                       
 72        Illinois State                67.68                       
                                                Total Diff:        -6.17
        Home Field                3.51

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Sagarin FCS Top-25

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1  30  North Dakota State
 2  58  Northern Iowa
 3  62  Southern Illinois
 4  69  Villanova
 5  72  Illinois State
 6  73  South Dakota State
 7  74  Montana
 8  78  McNeese State
 9  81  William & Mary
10  84  Eastern Washington
11  87  New Hampshire
12  91  Bethune-Cookman
13  95  SE Louisiana
14  97  Jacksonville State
15  102  Coastal Carolina
16  104  Youngstown State
17  105  Montana State
18  113  Eastern Kentucky
19  120  Tennessee State
20  121  South Dakota
21  122  Chattanooga
22  123  Princeton
23  128  Liberty
24  129  Wofford
25  130  Northern Arizona

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Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

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1.  MVFC        63.73
2.  Ohio Valley 54.71
3.  Colonial        54.35
4.  Big Sky        53.59
5.  Southern        51.55

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by SamsRams

Would love for this to be top 10 non P5 conferences

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Is this what you are looking for? (note: AAC just barely edged the MVFC after the update)

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1.  American Athletic  63.73
 2.  Missouri Valley    63.73
 3.  Mountain West      62.83
 4.  Mid-American      59.50
 5.  Conference-USA    59.17
 6.  Sun Belt          58.35
 7.  Ohio Valley        54.71
 8.  Colonial          54.35
 9.  Big Sky            53.59
10.  Southern          51.55

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Is this what you are looking for? (note: AAC just barely edged the MVFC after the update)

Code:

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1.  American Athletic  63.73
 2.  Missouri Valley    63.73
 3.  Mountain West      62.83
 4.  Mid-American      59.50
 5.  Conference-USA    59.17
 6.  Sun Belt          58.35
 7.  Ohio Valley        54.71
 8.  Colonial          54.35
 9.  Big Sky            53.59
10.  Southern          51.55

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Yes this list gets me all giddy. If you can add it each week or replace for the top 5 FCS, I for one would love it

Ovc over colonial. Give me a break. Lets wait a few weeks for it to be connected.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SamsRams

Yes this list gets me all giddy. If you can add it each week or replace for the top 5 FCS, I for one would love it

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Sure. It takes a touch more work since I have to calculate the conference rankings for the multi-division conferences(MWC, MAC, C-USA; you don't just average them together), but it's no different than what I had to do last year to recalculate all the FCS conference ratings for Predictor. I've got the Excel formulas already set up.

But don't expect the MVFC to stay that high. Like the crabby NDB2(I repeat myself) was inferring, these early ratings are pretty much worthless until week 4 or 5.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Hammersmith

Sure. It takes a touch more work since I have to calculate the conference rankings for the multi-division conferences(MWC, MAC, C-USA; you don't just average them together), but it's no different than what I had to do last year to recalculate all the FCS conference ratings for Predictor. I've got the Excel formulas already set up.

But don't expect the MVFC to stay that high. Like the crabby NDB2(I repeat myself) was inferring, these early ratings are pretty much worthless until week 4 or 5.

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Yes but the twitter masses gobble them up. I thank you for your work in this thread. One of the few threads I enjoy reading