Sagarin says

[BisoninNWMN]

Yes, we currently play for championships. Yes, we enjoy looking at Sagarin ratings to see where we rank. And yes, NDSU should go FBS. The only dick here is you.

Check rep SD!!

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.52 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Incarnate Word 99.98% (+0.2% from last week)
Montana 87.3% (-2.8%)
Western Illinois 97.7% (+0.2%)
Southern Illinois 81.5% (-4.7%)
Indiana State 99.1% (-0.1%)
South Dakota 88.5% (-4.5%)
South Dakota State 86.9% (+4.6%)
Northern Iowa 61.5% (-7.6%)
Missouri State 92.8% (+4.7%)
Youngstown State 92.6% (+2.6%)

12-0 28.0% (-2.9% from last week)
11-1 41.1% (+0.7%)
10-2 23.0% (+1.6%)
9-3 6.7% (+0.6%)
8-4 1.1% (+0.1%)
7-5 0.1% (=0.0%)
6-6 0.01%
5-7 0.0002%
4-8 0.000003%
3-9 0.00000001%
2-10 0.000000000003%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[Hammersmith]

How is UNI gaining on us? We were almost 7 points better then them last week, now less than 4. Take off 3 points for being at home and it's now dead even with them.

No idea really. We moved up in both place and rating, but UNI moved up more. And they didn't even play yesterday. Give it another couple weeks to get enough data on this season instead of whatever historical model he uses to start off with. This stuff is pretty meaningless and just for fun at the best of times, and the first few weeks of the season take that to the extreme.

[SamsRams]

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences
Code:
1. MVFC 63.69
2. Colonial 55.01
3. Ohio Valley 54.64
4. Big Sky 53.50
5. Southern 51.42

Would love for this to be top 10 non P5 conferences

[Hammersmith]

Dammit. Sagarin must have updated after the Delaware/Delaware State game. Here are the updated numbers. OVC & CAA swap spots on the conference list. Wofford in, Portland State out on the top-25. A few swaps in the top-25 as well.


Sagarin's Week 3 Predictions (Updated)

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 30	North Dakota State	79.01			
101	Iowa State		63.54     +11.96     +20.00      +8.04
204	Weber State		44.29     +31.21     +17.00     -14.21
241	Incarnate Word		33.60     +48.92		
 74	Montana			67.02     +15.50		
171	Western Illinois	50.94     +24.56		
 62	Southern Illinois	70.38     +12.14		
175	Indiana State		50.16     +32.36		
121	South Dakota		59.19     +16.31		
 73	South Dakota State	67.42     +15.10		
 58	Northern Iowa		71.54      +3.96		
142	Missouri State		55.67     +19.83		
104	Youngstown State	62.97     +19.55		
					
 72	Illinois State		67.68			
						Total Diff:	 -6.17
	Home Field		 3.51

Sagarin FCS Top-25

 1   30  North Dakota State
 2   58  Northern Iowa
 3   62  Southern Illinois
 4   69  Villanova
 5   72  Illinois State
 6   73  South Dakota State
 7   74  Montana
 8   78  McNeese State
 9   81  William & Mary
10   84  Eastern Washington
11   87  New Hampshire
12   91  Bethune-Cookman
13   95  SE Louisiana
14   97  Jacksonville State
15  102  Coastal Carolina
16  104  Youngstown State
17  105  Montana State
18  113  Eastern Kentucky
19  120  Tennessee State
20  121  South Dakota
21  122  Chattanooga
22  123  Princeton
23  128  Liberty
24  129  Wofford
25  130  Northern Arizona

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	63.73
2.  Ohio Valley 54.71
3.  Colonial	54.35
4.  Big Sky	53.59
5.  Southern	51.55

[Hammersmith]

Would love for this to be top 10 non P5 conferences

Is this what you are looking for? (note: AAC just barely edged the MVFC after the update)

 1.  American Athletic  63.73
 2.  Missouri Valley    63.73
 3.  Mountain West      62.83
 4.  Mid-American       59.50
 5.  Conference-USA     59.17
 6.  Sun Belt           58.35
 7.  Ohio Valley        54.71
 8.  Colonial           54.35
 9.  Big Sky            53.59
10.  Southern           51.55

[SamsRams]

Is this what you are looking for? (note: AAC just barely edged the MVFC after the update)

 1.  American Athletic  63.73
 2.  Missouri Valley    63.73
 3.  Mountain West      62.83
 4.  Mid-American       59.50
 5.  Conference-USA     59.17
 6.  Sun Belt           58.35
 7.  Ohio Valley        54.71
 8.  Colonial           54.35
 9.  Big Sky            53.59
10.  Southern           51.55

Yes this list gets me all giddy. If you can add it each week or replace for the top 5 FCS, I for one would love it

[Bison bison]

Ovc over colonial. Give me a break. Lets wait a few weeks for it to be connected.

[Hammersmith]

Yes this list gets me all giddy. If you can add it each week or replace for the top 5 FCS, I for one would love it

Sure. It takes a touch more work since I have to calculate the conference rankings for the multi-division conferences(MWC, MAC, C-USA; you don't just average them together), but it's no different than what I had to do last year to recalculate all the FCS conference ratings for Predictor. I've got the Excel formulas already set up.

But don't expect the MVFC to stay that high. Like the crabby NDB2(I repeat myself) was inferring, these early ratings are pretty much worthless until week 4 or 5.

[SamsRams]

Sure. It takes a touch more work since I have to calculate the conference rankings for the multi-division conferences(MWC, MAC, C-USA; you don't just average them together), but it's no different than what I had to do last year to recalculate all the FCS conference ratings for Predictor. I've got the Excel formulas already set up.

But don't expect the MVFC to stay that high. Like the crabby NDB2(I repeat myself) was inferring, these early ratings are pretty much worthless until week 4 or 5.

Yes but the twitter masses gobble them up. I thank you for your work in this thread. One of the few threads I enjoy reading