MAC 60.01 (-0.26 from last week)
CUSA 59.91 (+0.11)
Sn Blt 58.69 (+0.07)
MVFC 57.40 (-0.04)
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MAC 60.01 (-0.26 from last week)
CUSA 59.91 (+0.11)
Sn Blt 58.69 (+0.07)
MVFC 57.40 (-0.04)
NDSU's 76.66 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (=0)
8th in the Big Ten (+1)
8th in the Big 12 (=0)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (=0)
10th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
And I think were being underratedQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Massey ratings have NDSU at #33 in divsion 1 -- ahead of Notre Dame, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, USC, ...
Chances they're top 25 if they run the table and kick ass while doing so?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk
They moved up about a point to 77.68 in Sagarin's predictor score.
Week 9 in the can. SDSU is back in the top-25, while Mo State cracks it as well. Goodbye Georgia Sothern. Fully 60% of the MVFC is now in the top-25. The gap between the top two conferences and the pack widens a bit. KState's win nearly pushed them into the top 30. Let's hope they continue to win; just playing a top-30 team gives you a boost, I believe, let alone beating one. Sag predicts double digit wins from here on out. Let's hope we do like Saturday and add 14+ to the prediction.
Sagarin's Week 10 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
40 North Dakota State 77.68
32 Kansas State 80.22 -6.35 3.00 9.35
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
228 Delaware State 33.02 48.47 51.00 2.53
120 South Dakota State 58.35 15.52 20.00 4.48
85 Northern Iowa 65.99 15.50 1.00 -14.50
128 Missouri State 57.08 24.41 15.00 -9.41
105 Southern Illinois 60.98 12.89 21.00 8.11
181 Indiana State 45.66 28.21 46.00 17.79
156 Illinois State 52.82 28.67
97 Youngstown State 62.85 11.02
160 South Dakota 49.88 31.61
167 Western Illinois 48.13
Total Diff: 18.35
Home 3.81
Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS ConferencesCode:1 40 North Dakota State
2 58 Eastern Illinois
3 78 Towson
4 83 Eastern Washington
5 84 Montana
6 85 Northern Iowa
7 87 Villanova
8 89 McNeese State
9 93 Montana State
10 97 Youngstown State
11 101 Maine
12 102 William & Mary
13 104 Sam Houston State
14 105 Southern Illinois
15 109 New Hampshire
16 110 SE Louisiana
17 112 Samford
18 113 Coastal Carolina
19 119 Chattanooga
20 120 South Dakota State
21 122 Tennessee State
22 124 Old Dominion
23 125 Bethune-Cookman
24 127 Cal Poly
25 128 Missouri State
Code:1. MVFC 57.40
2. Colonial 55.92
3. Big Sky 51.48
4. Southland 51.10
5. Ohio Valley 50.42
6. Southern 50.04
Looks like Sagarin made a bunch of changes to the BCS-used Pure ELO algorithm. It's not even close to last week. No FCS teams even close to the top 25...when there had been a bunch in it. I'm guessing someone made a stink about how bad it was.
The Big 10 and Big 12 elitists ruined it. How could a top 5 FCS team possibly be better than a majority of their teams weve already beaten? Shit UNI beat Iowa State and they are winless in conference playQuote:
Originally Posted by gumby013
This whole fiasco just gives the lie to the BCS.
BCS starts with a B and ends with an S.......BS.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Either way it's horse S.Quote:
Originally Posted by SDbison
No doubt. I hope 3 BCS teams finish unbeaten just to further illustrate how completely worthless the bcs system is. Has another sport ever found such an idiotic way of producing "champions." It bugs the fire out of me that they actually label someone as "national champs" under that lunacy. Only FCS produces D-1 champs. There...I've unleashed my quarterly anti-bcs rant...better now :)Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
the bcs is much better than what was there before
Awesome, so if I take a poop, it is gross. but throw some pepper on it and it's not as gross??Quote:
Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan
Ur poop still gross my man sorry
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
probably should have just used the Lipstick on a pig saying.......
You can't polish a turd.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SamsRams
Is your last name Ponder?
Nope. I would rather have nothing than an unjust system that pretends and lies in trying to convince people of a reality that isn't real. Just play bowl games without any pretense of producing a champ or get a real playoffs.Quote:
Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
I liked the way it was before the BCS. Just play the traditional bowl matchups and it typically worked out. In a rare year, you just had a split champion.
Just like the BCS and B1G, I think my poop smells like RosesQuote:
Originally Posted by unbison
For a second there, I thought you were discussing certain Red Blue political decisions?!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
Ha, I had the exact thought while making my post. Some big similarities between the bcs and our federal gov growth loving politicians. Both try to convince people that garbage tastes great and is healthy. But I shouldn't open that can of worms thus I'll say no more on this.Quote:
Originally Posted by BlueBisonRock
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
^^Perfect.
Ummmmm....Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
In the last three years the government has shrunk faster than at any time since the immediate aftermath of WWII.
It actually shrunk? How much less is the federal government spending per year? Or do you mean as a percentage of the economy or something?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
What would be even better is if Stanford and Baylor win out and Ohio State and FSU somehow lose. Stanford would be #2 with a loss ahead of Big 12 undefeated champ Baylor. That would cause big-time problems!Quote:
Originally Posted by ZHerd
Didn't the Feds recently hire a whole bunch more agents for the IRS to police obama-care?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.81 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Ill St 98.9% (-0.1 percentage points from last week)
YSU 79.3% (+2.8)
USD 99.0% (+0.6)
11-0 77.6% 72.3% (+5.3)
10-1 22.0% 26.3% (-4.3)
9-2 0.4% 1.3% (-0.9)
8-3 0.002%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Playoffs:
Sagarin gives NDSU a 58% chance of winning the SportsNetwork bracket.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
Montana State 90.5% (San Diego 9.5%)
#8 Maine 62.4% (Villanova 19.7%)
#4 McNeese State 61.9% (#5 Sam Houston St. 32.5%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 53.1% (#3 Towson 28.2%)
MAC 59.83 (-0.18 from last week)
CUSA 59.91 (=0.00)
Sn Blt 58.45 (-0.24)
MVFC 57.40 (=0.00)
NDSU's 77.68 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (=0)
5th in the Big Ten (+3)
7th in the Big 12 (+1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (=0)
10th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
Sagarin's numbers were calculated early this week. NDSU jumps up a small margin from 77.68 to 77.8 (#38) even in a bye week. I suspect this is mostly due to Kansas State moving up to the top 30 with their convincing win over Iowa State.
If anyone is interested, I have started an informal analysis comparing Sagarin Predictor scores against the actual results from all DI games. I posted my initial results here: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/show...l-scores/page4 Highlights are below as well.
Out of 106 games between DI opponents:
--> Average difference between Sagarin's predicted spread and the actual spread is only 1.3 points, with a standard deviation of 15 points.
--> (44.3%) 47 games - Sagarin correctly predicted the winner
--> (7.5%) 8 games were within 2 points of Sagarin's predictions in either direction
--> (15.1%) 16 games were between 2 & 5 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (24.5%) 26 games were between 5 & 10 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (23.6%) 25 games were between 10 & 15 points off Sagarin's predictions
--> (29.2%) 31 games were greater than 15 points off Sagarin's predictions
The standard deviation makes a lot of sense. The historic standard deviation for Sagarin's NFL predictor is just under 14.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Intuitively, I would think that the NFL teams have to be better connected, since there are fewer teams and many of them play twice in a season. I guess the "any given Saturday/Sunday" factor is pretty significant, eh?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Some shakeups in the FCS top-25. KState cracks the overall top-30 so we get a little boost. UNI continues their slow fall. Their rating is too high for where they are as a team right now, but that's to be expected in a computer model that looks at the entire season for data.
Sagarin's Week 11 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
38 North Dakota State 77.80
27 Kansas State 82.05 -7.84 3.00 10.84
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
229 Delaware State 33.18 48.21 51.00 2.79
120 South Dakota State 58.81 15.40 20.00 4.60
90 Northern Iowa 63.69 17.70 1.00 -16.70
110 Missouri State 59.72 21.67 15.00 -6.67
107 Southern Illinois 60.61 13.60 21.00 7.40
192 Indiana State 43.67 30.54 46.00 15.46
140 Illinois State 55.56 25.83
96 Youngstown State 62.46 11.75
161 South Dakota 50.62 30.77
166 Western Illinois 48.98
Total Diff: 17.72
Home 3.59
Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS ConferencesCode:1 38 North Dakota State
2 61 Eastern Illinois
3 81 Montana
4 82 Eastern Washington
5 84 Towson
6 87 SE Louisiana
7 88 William & Mary
8 89 Villanova
9 90 Northern Iowa
10 96 Youngstown State
11 97 Montana State
12 105 Maine
13 107 Southern Illinois
14 108 McNeese State
15 109 Sam Houston State
16 110 Missouri State
17 113 Samford
18 114 Old Dominion
19 115 Eastern Kentucky
20 116 Coastal Carolina
21 119 Chattanooga
22 120 South Dakota State
23 122 Cal Poly
24 123 Bethune-Cookman
25 127 New Hampshire
Code:1. MVFC 58.11
2. Colonial 55.79
3. Big Sky 51.75
4. Southland 51.51
5. Ohio Valley 50.86
6. Southern 50.55
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.59 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Ill St 98.2% (-0.7 percentage points from last week)
YSU 80.8% (+1.5)
USD 98.8% (-0.2)
11-0 77.6% (+0.7)
10-1 22.0% (-0.9)
9-2 0.4% (+0.2)
8-3 0.004%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
Playoffs:
Sagarin gives NDSU a 57.2% chance of winning the SportsNetwork bracket.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
Montana 91.7% (San Diego 8.3%)
#8 Towson 76.1% (SE Louisiana 15.4%)
#4 Maine 44.8% (#5 Sam Houston St. 30.4%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 61.8% (#3 E. Washington 25.2%)
CUSA 60.11 (+0.12 from last week)
MAC 59.82 (=0.00)
Sn Blt 58.20 (-0.20)
MVFC 58.11 (+0.71)
NDSU's 77.8 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
5th in the ACC (+1)
4th in the Big Ten (+1)
7th in the Big 12 (=0)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (=0)
10th in the SEC (=0)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
Still ranked ahead of the Gophers. :biggrin: