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Bisonaudit let me know this morning my numbers were wrong. Apparently there was an error in the ratings released on Sunday morning. Sagarin reran the numbers which altered most of the values by a couple thousandths. My earlier post is now fixed. There were no changes to speak of, just some tiny alterations here and there.
How can we EVER trust you again??Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Why did you ever trust me in the first place? I sure wouldn't.Quote:
Originally Posted by EndZoneQB
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Haha, touche, touche.
To compare and contrast, here's what my simulator module is predicting. Home field is factored in.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Mo St 99.44%
S Ill 92.36%
Ind St 90.09%
Ill St 99.06%
YSU 75.48%
USD 99.11%
Was wondering about this last night. Let's say, God-forbid of course, that we do end up losing. Assuming each loss is to the lowest percentage, where do we end up for the year. Remember, this is completely hypothetical as we aren't going to lose, but middle of the week is incredibly boring :)Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
11-0 60.1% - Obviously #1 seed for playoffs
10-1 33.5% - #2 or #3 seed for playoffs
9-2 6.0% - #7 or #8 seed for playoffs
8-3 0.4% - First round game. We would obviously outbid anyone
7-4 0.01% - Still think we get in since we've beat an FBS, SDSU, and UNI.
My new rankings are out. Bison move into the overall top 25.
http://purecfr.com/college-football-...s-2013-week-7/
Sagarin was out early today. Good thing for me since I've got to go to a baptism in a couple hours. NDSU drops some due to a perceived underperformance versus Missouri State. Thanks to their loss, UNI drops to #3 while Eastern Illinois takes over #2. Who'd have thought an OVC team could be ranked this high? Villanova and Towson basically swap spots. SIU & YSU keep moving up the list. Those two games are now virtually tied with UNI as our toughest FCS games. Conference-wise, it's MVFC & CAA then everyone else. Southland drops to the point it may lose the #3 spot to Big Sky, and SoCon just keeps falling. At this rate I might need to add a 7th conference just to keep them in(not really).
Sagarin's Week 8 Predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff [/U]
45 North Dakota State 75.41
41 Kansas State 77.42 -5.61 3.00 8.61
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
225 Delaware State 33.36 45.65 51.00 5.35
113 South Dakota State 59.84 11.97 20.00 8.03
65 Northern Iowa 71.20 7.81 1.00 -6.81
149 Missouri State 54.11 24.90 15.00 -9.90
92 Southern Illinois 64.07 7.74
160 Indiana State 50.95 20.86
171 Illinois State 46.93 32.08
94 Youngstown State 63.91 7.90
167 South Dakota 47.80 31.21
172 Western Illinois 46.71
Total Diff: 5.28
Home 3.60
Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS ConferencesCode:1 45 North Dakota State
2 58 Eastern Illinois
3 65 Northern Iowa
4 78 Villanova
5 80 Towson
6 84 Montana
7 88 McNeese State
8 90 Montana State
9 91 Eastern Washington
10 92 Southern Illinois
11 94 Youngstown State
12 99 SE Louisiana
13 102 William & Mary
14 108 Samford
15 109 Maine
16 110 Georgia Southern
17 111 Sam Houston State
18 112 Coastal Carolina
19 113 South Dakota State
20 114 Chattanooga
21 119 Old Dominion
22 121 Stony Brook
23 125 Cal Poly
24 127 Bethune-Cookman
25 128 New Hampshire
Code:1. MVFC 57.44
2. Colonial 56.25
3. Southland 51.95
4. Big Sky 51.31
5. Ohio Valley 50.22
6. Southern 49.78
It's funny how the Whioux join the Big Sky and now their conference is isn't so hot anymore.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
But they played EWU close!?!Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
well the bottom of the fluffy sucks
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.66 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
S Ill 71.5% (-10.7 percentage points from last week)
Ind St 93.7% (-0.2)
Ill St 99.5% (-0.1)
YSU 71.9% (-8.4)
USD 98.9% (-0.5)
11-0 47.5% (-12.6)
10-1 41.3% (+7.8)
9-2 10.5% (+4.5)
8-3 0.7% (-0.3)
7-4 0.01%
6-5 0.00003%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.
MAC 59.88 (+0.39 from last week)
CUSA 59.80 (-0.16)
Sn Blt 58.62 (-0.29)
MVFC 57.44 (+0.68)
[/QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Wow, honestly, those are shocking swings, yet completely make sense. NDSU has two huge dog fights on the road coming.....dang it, I thought UNI and SDSU were going to be the tough games!!!!
NDSU's 75.41 would rank:
3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (=0)
9th in the Big Ten (-2)
8th in the Big 12 (-1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (-1)
10th in the SEC (-1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)
Wow, honestly, those are shocking swings, yet completely make sense. NDSU has two huge dog fights on the road coming.....dang it, I thought UNI and SDSU were going to be the tough games!!!![/QUOTE]
NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 while
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.
So, you figure this into the game vs Illinois State and any teams remaining on the schedule that come off of bye weeks when they play NDSU?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Or is this just a copy-and-paste residual?
NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 whileQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.[/QUOTE]
One big silver lining I saw in Saturday's game is that if folks think they can just line up in a 3-4 and give NDSU fits, it won't work. Brock was dialed in on Saturday and everyone knows he wants to run the table. He keeps doing that, these 3-4's will get shredded.
Figured into the Illinois State prediction. None of our remaining opponents are playing us coming off of their bye week.Quote:
Originally Posted by JDZ
One big silver lining I saw in Saturday's game is that if folks think they can just line up in a 3-4 and give NDSU fits, it won't work. Brock was dialed in on Saturday and everyone knows he wants to run the table. He keeps doing that, these 3-4's will get shredded.[/QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
^^^THIS^^^ Both UNI and MSU left the deep middle of the field wide open. I have complete faith in the team to pass the ball if 3-4 teams sell out to beat the rushing attack. Brock was a machine Saturday!
NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 whileQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.[/QUOTE]
It's amazing how the teams we have already played have worse records that the teams we have left to play. Anyone know why?
It's amazing how the teams we have already played have worse records that the teams we have left to play. Anyone know why?[/QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by westriver bison
Cuz they haven't played us yet?!?!?!?
It's amazing how the teams we have already played have worse records that the teams we have left to play. Anyone know why?[/QUOTE]Quote:
Originally Posted by westriver bison
I'm gonna have to think about this one for a while. I'll get back to you.
Not counting their losses to us the teams we've played to date are 17-15. Our remaining opponents are 16-16.Quote:
Originally Posted by westriver bison
Would you stop bringing logic into these conversations!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qZV1vvTiny...partyspock.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Week 8 of my rankings. Bison remain at the top, but Fordham is close behind.
http://purecfr.com/college-football-...s-2013-week-8/
Well, audit was right about today being interesting. Looks like Sag decided to add a fourth set of numbers to his ratings. Not only that, but it screwed up his formatting with word wrap. I'm going to go ahead and continue to use predictor for now. Results should be up in about 30min. BTW, I think according to the numbers sent to the BCS, the Bison are ranked 12th in the nation(that version of Sag only looks at W/L). However, I strongly suspect part of the deal he has with the BCS is to only pass along FBS schools in his top-25.
Whaaaaaaa....Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Is the Whaaaaaa.... because you don't know why I'm referencing you(you said something last night in a different thread about wondering what Sag would look like this morning due to some of the weird wins and losses yesterday), or because the fourth set of numbers came out of nowhere?Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
From his description at the top of the page:
Pure Elo - only winning and losing matters; the score margin is of no consequence, which makes it very good at retro-fitting the W-L results. The PURE_ELO will be used by the BCS. However it is less accurate in its predictions for upcoming games than is the...
Pure Points(Predictor) - score margin is the only thing that matters and it is a very good predictor of future games
Elo Score - applies Elo principles to the actual scores of the games and so it is now score based and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games
Rating - a synthesis of the two somewhat different score based methods, ELO_SCORE and PURE POINTS, and thus should be a good predictor in its own right
Looking at his descriptions and remembering from last week, I think Sag hasn't been giving us Pure Elo until now. It's probably being added at this point because he had to submit it today to the BCS. Elo Score must have been new starting this year. (or was this version here last year and I just blanked it out?)
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...ly-removes-movQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Anyone else notice he forgot about an FCS team?
So...we are #12 in Pure ELO.
Anyway, here are this week's results and next week's predictions. Southland and Big Sky swap spots while being in a virtual tie for 3/4. SDSU drops out of the top-25 while UNI barely stays in the top-5. YSU cracks the top-10(they were just outside last week).
Sagarin's Week 9 Predictions
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
44 North Dakota State 76.66
41 Kansas State 78.06 -5.24 3.00 8.24
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
219 Delaware State 35.11 45.39 51.00 5.61
126 South Dakota State 57.97 14.85 20.00 5.15
80 Northern Iowa 66.97 13.53 1.00 -12.53
136 Missouri State 56.63 23.87 15.00 -8.87
105 Southern Illinois 61.50 11.32 21.00 9.68
171 Indiana State 47.17 25.65
158 Illinois State 51.54 28.96
98 Youngstown State 63.06 9.76
160 South Dakota 51.22 29.28
167 Western Illinois 48.18
Total Diff: 7.28
Home 3.84
Sagarin Predictor Top-6 FCS ConferencesCode:1 44 North Dakota State
2 62 Eastern Illinois
3 78 Towson
4 79 Villanova
5 80 Northern Iowa
6 84 Montana
7 88 Eastern Washington
8 89 McNeese State
9 92 Montana State
10 98 Youngstown State
11 104 SE Louisiana
12 105 Southern Illinois
13 106 William & Mary
14 109 Maine
15 110 Georgia Southern
16 111 Coastal Carolina
17 112 Sam Houston State
18 113 Samford
19 115 Chattanooga
20 116 Old Dominion
21 117 New Hampshire
22 118 Tennessee State
23 121 Stony Brook
24 122 Cal Poly
25 123 Fordham
Code:1. MVFC 57.40
2. Colonial 56.06
3. Big Sky 51.52
4. Southland 51.49
5. Ohio Valley 50.39
6. Southern 49.79
Yep, but that only makes us the fourth best team in FCS according to that computation.Quote:
Originally Posted by gumby013
4 Bethune-Cookman
7 Fordham
10 Costal Carolina
12 North Dakota State
21 Lehigh
22 Tennessee State
24 Eastern Illinois
Methinks there's something fishy with that formula.
So what you are saying is that the BCS will LOVE this formula.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Not necessarily anything "fishy." It's just not a very good indication of the relative strength of teams.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Never even heard of the pure elo
Sent from my SCH-I605 using Tapatalk
No wonder Sagarin waited until the day the first BCS rankings are released to unveil this gem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Because numbers from nowhere.
Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.84 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
Ind St 97.0% (+3.3 percentage points from last week)
Ill St 99.0% (-0.5)
YSU 76.5% (+4.6)
USD 98.4% (-0.5)
11-0 72.3% (+25.8)
10-1 26.3% (-15.0)
9-2 1.3% (-10.2)
8-3 0.02% (-0.7)
7-4 0.0001%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.