Sagarin says

[tjbison]

It's funny how the Whioux join the Big Sky and now their conference is isn't so hot anymore.

well the bottom of the fluffy sucks

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.66 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

S Ill 71.5% (-10.7 percentage points from last week)
Ind St 93.7% (-0.2)
Ill St 99.5% (-0.1)
YSU 71.9% (-8.4)
USD 98.9% (-0.5)



11-0 47.5% (-12.6)
10-1 41.3% (+7.8)
9-2 10.5% (+4.5)
8-3 0.7% (-0.3)
7-4 0.01%
6-5 0.00003%


Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[bisonaudit]

MAC 59.88 (+0.39 from last week)
CUSA 59.80 (-0.16)
Sn Blt 58.62 (-0.29)
MVFC 57.44 (+0.68)

[THEsocalledfan]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.66 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

S Ill 71.5% (-10.7 percentage points from last week)
Ind St 93.7% (-0.2)
Ill St 99.5% (-0.1)
YSU 71.9% (-8.4)
USD 98.9% (-0.5)



11-0 47.5% (-12.6)
10-1 41.3% (+7.8)
9-2 10.5% (+4.5)
8-3 0.7% (-0.3)
7-4 0.01%
6-5 0.00003%


Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[/QUOTE]

Wow, honestly, those are shocking swings, yet completely make sense. NDSU has two huge dog fights on the road coming.....dang it, I thought UNI and SDSU were going to be the tough games!!!!

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 75.41 would rank:

3rd in the American Athletic (=0 from last week)
6th in the ACC (=0)
9th in the Big Ten (-2)
8th in the Big 12 (-1)
1st in Conference USA (=0)
1st in the MAC (=0)
3rd in the MWC (=0)
10th in the PAC 12 (-1)
10th in the SEC (-1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=0)

[bisonaudit]

Wow, honestly, those are shocking swings, yet completely make sense. NDSU has two huge dog fights on the road coming.....dang it, I thought UNI and SDSU were going to be the tough games!!!![/QUOTE]

NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 while
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.

[JDZ]

2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week

So, you figure this into the game vs Illinois State and any teams remaining on the schedule that come off of bye weeks when they play NDSU?

Or is this just a copy-and-paste residual?

[THEsocalledfan]

Wow, honestly, those are shocking swings, yet completely make sense. NDSU has two huge dog fights on the road coming.....dang it, I thought UNI and SDSU were going to be the tough games!!!!

NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 while
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.[/QUOTE]

One big silver lining I saw in Saturday's game is that if folks think they can just line up in a 3-4 and give NDSU fits, it won't work. Brock was dialed in on Saturday and everyone knows he wants to run the table. He keeps doing that, these 3-4's will get shredded.

[bisonaudit]

So, you figure this into the game vs Illinois State and any teams remaining on the schedule that come off of bye weeks when they play NDSU?

Or is this just a copy-and-paste residual?

Figured into the Illinois State prediction. None of our remaining opponents are playing us coming off of their bye week.

[BisonNation11]

NDSU's rating decreased 1.86 while
YSU's rating increased 2.45 and
S Ill's rating increased 3.53.

One big silver lining I saw in Saturday's game is that if folks think they can just line up in a 3-4 and give NDSU fits, it won't work. Brock was dialed in on Saturday and everyone knows he wants to run the table. He keeps doing that, these 3-4's will get shredded.[/QUOTE]

^^^THIS^^^ Both UNI and MSU left the deep middle of the field wide open. I have complete faith in the team to pass the ball if 3-4 teams sell out to beat the rushing attack. Brock was a machine Saturday!