I can never remember how this thing works; what does it predict for SDSU with their home field?
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I can never remember how this thing works; what does it predict for SDSU with their home field?
There's an 84 percent chance of beating N. Iowa but only a 68 percent chance of beating S. Illinois. This seems a little whacked but maybe playing on the road or at home plays into this?
I don't disagree, but early in the season while still incorporating some data from last year, the stats can produce odd results. Give it a few more weeks and all should fall into place. (And hope that K-State starts winning again.)Quote:
Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan
The home field advantage has been over 5 points a game so far this season. It should normalize down to around 3 over time. That's a big part of this. Also these are last weeks numbers. After the games of 9/21, the computer thinks UNI is 3 points better than they were a week ago and it evaluates S. Ill. as a half a point worse than the week before.Quote:
Originally Posted by KC Bison
NDSU's 72.97 would rank:
5th in the American Athletic (-1 from last week)
9th in the ACC (-2)
10th in the Big Ten (-1)
8th in the Big 12 (=)
2nd in Conference USA (-1)
1st in the MAC (=)
3rd in the MWC (=)
11th in the PAC 12 (-1)
14th in the SEC (-1)
1st in the Sun Belt (=)
CUSA 61.43 (-0.14 from last week)
MAC 60.26 (-0.69)
MVFC 58.85 (-1.17)
Sn Blt 57.88 (-2.77)
Dsu and Ferris don't help at all.
Based on Sagarin's numbers (look no further than the 5.23 home field number for evidence its early) w/ 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:
SDSU 61.3% (+2.6 percentage points from last week)
UNI 74.4% (-9.9)
Mo St 97.0% (-1.0)
S Ill 65.3% (-3.6)
Ind St 76.5% (-1.9)
Ill St 97.2% (+1.6)
YSU 72.0% (-5.9)
USD 98.8% (-0.1)
11-0 15.3% (-3.9)
10-1 34.7% (-3.4)
9-2 31.5% (+2.3)
8-3 14.5% (+3.4)
7-4 3.5% (+1.3)
6-5 0.4% (+0.2)
5-6 0.02%
4-7 0.0004%
3-8 0.000002%
Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86.
Hammersmith does all the work for you, just check out his predict column. NDSU is 3.88 point favorite.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
I get it, again. I have to have this thing explained to me on a yearly basis.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
Is there a Vegas line at all for this game, or is 3.88 the number I get to use for my bet with AG?!? I am in desperate need of a win here my friends-->DES-PER-ATE!!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
I got a pharmacist here at sanford to bet me Zenner would get over 100 yards. I think it is money in the bank. I reminded him "43 and 46."
3.88 minus the 3 points for home field advantage means you should give .88 points. That's what I would go with at leastQuote:
Originally Posted by CAS4127
I think I will start with him giving me points then, and "negotiate" from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayville Bison
Home field is already baked into the 3.88.
So, on a neutral field, NDSU would win by 6.88 and in Fargo, the Bison would win by 9.88 points?
From Hammersmith's post:Quote:
Originally Posted by KC Bison
NDSU 72.97
SDSU 63.86
Home 5.23 (historically this number is around 3, right now on limited data it's a little out of whack)
therefore:
Neutral site: 72.97 - 63.86 = 9.11
Fargodome: 9.11 + 5.23 = 14.34
Away: 9.11 - 5.23 = 3.88
So, the Bison outperformed Sagarin's predictor score by 16+. That should move us up at least a little bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
So, may plan is to basically ignore the bet until he pays to be a good sport; I almost feel bad about it at this point...Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Should have punched it in at the end for another 7Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter
Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2
No reason to do that. The game was over. Although I thought Lang was going in after he got the ball for the last offensive play.Quote:
Originally Posted by westnodak93bison
Should have gotten more points in the first half though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
wait. Were you specific? Did you make the bet for just the one game or for the past three?
I'm working on the full write up, but I was seriously surprised when I saw them. For those that don't know, there are three different Sagarin ratings. ELO-chess is the rating that goes to the BCS for their system. Pure-points is the most accurate according to Sagarin and the one I use. Synthesis is a hybrid of the two and the one USA Today uses(as well as the layman when they refer to Sagarin numbers).
As of this morning, NDSU is 26th in the ELO-chess rating. It's the least accurate of the three ratings, but it's the one that helps create the BCS ranking.
Northern Iowa is the #2 FCS team. Possible to get another boost next week.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Also, thanks to us, K State has a loss to the top 30.
It feels like this was the week where last year's results stopped being factored in. Sagarin used to include a line about the results being either well-connected or not, but that line has been missing this year. By the way things jumped around this week, I think the transition just happened.
Other than NDSU moving ahead of Kansas State(40 vs. 42), there's not all that much to say. The MVFC is slipping but still #1. The Big Sky and SoCon continue their fall. The Big Sky has 6 teams in the top-25, but the bottom of the conference is really dragging them down. Illinois State and Indiana State drop out of the top-25. UNI has now become our toughest FCS game after SDSU dropped a ton.
Sagarin's Week 6 Predictions:
Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25Code:Sagarin Predict Result Diff
40 North Dakota State 76.91
42 Kansas State 76.63 -3.96 3.00 6.96
NA Ferris State NA NA 46.00 NA
225 Delaware State 34.60 46.55 51.00 4.45
131 South Dakota State 58.09 14.58 20.00 5.42
60 Northern Iowa 72.53 8.62
142 Missouri State 55.43 25.72
110 Southern Illinois 60.28 12.39
152 Indiana State 52.72 19.95
187 Illinois State 46.50 34.65
111 Youngstown State 60.21 12.46
185 South Dakota 46.90 34.25
163 Western Illinois 50.75
Total Diff: 16.83
Home 4.24
Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS ConferencesCode:1 40 North Dakota State
2 60 Northern Iowa
3 66 Eastern Illinois
4 75 Towson
5 82 Villanova
6 88 Eastern Washington
7 89 Montana
8 95 McNeese State
9 98 Montana State
10 99 Georgia Southern
11 101 William & Mary
12 103 Old Dominion
13 104 Sam Houston State
14 107 Portland State
15 108 Maine
16 109 SE Louisiana
17 110 Southern Illinois
18 111 Youngstown State
19 112 Chattanooga
20 113 Central Arkansas
21 117 Cal Poly
22 125 Richmond
23 130 Harvard
24 131 South Dakota State
25 132 Northern Arizona
Code:1. MVFC 57.16
2. Colonial 56.04
3. Southland 54.14
4. Big Sky 53.74
5. Southern 50.20
I need a schooling on how to read these.
Top box: Number on far left is the predictor ranking including all 330+ DI teams. The Sagarin column is the actual predictor ranking. The predict column is what the Sagarin numbers predict the outcome of the game to be including home field advantage. The result column is what the actual score differential was. The diff column is how far off the Sagaring prediction was from the actual result. Toward the bottom is what the current home field advantage is, and the sum of the diff column.Quote:
Originally Posted by A1pigskin
Take the KState line. Currently, KSU is ranked 42nd of all DI teams. Their score is 76.63. Home field advantage is 4.24. NDSU is ranked 40th with a score of 76.91. Since the game was at their place, the Sagarin prediction for NDSU was 76.91 - 76.63 - 4.24 = -3.96. IOW, Sagarin predicted us to lose by just under 4 points. Since we won by 3 points, we outperformed the prediction by 6.96.
Now, these numbers change every week, so we are currently predicted to win by about 9 points but that will change when I put up a new post next Sunday. The only reason I keep some of these numbers is to show whether the team is outperforming expectations or underperforming.
Now its bisonaudit's turn to explain deviation.
Well, I watched the premier of Showtime's "Masters of Sex" on the Audience network last night, but, somehow, I don't think that's what you meant.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Were the participants not wearing socks? Not wash their hands afterwards?
It was the '50's.Quote:
Originally Posted by NDB2
Thanks for the quick briefing. Really appreciate it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammersmith
Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Hell no!.Quote:
Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan
Take his cash.
You can use it to get a malaria shot during your time in Botswana.
NDSU currently ranked #29 by Sagarin! That is ahead of 6 teams in the SEC and Pac 12 and on top of the B1G Legends division. :) It would also put us at the top of a few non-AQ conferences.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...13/conference/
Thanks for posting the link to look at all the schools rankings. It's always interesting to see who they think we are ahead of, also to see where other schools sit. Like UND only being ahead of Georgia St and Florida Int.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
Ha ha, that said, are you planning on doing your normal work on the probabilities of going 10-1 etc? I look forward to that weekly. Maybe you can get Dom to quote you on the media blog #nerdstatsQuote:
Originally Posted by bisonaudit
My favorite part is the probability of going winless the rest of the year. Yes, it's statistically impossible, but I love seeing how many zeros follow the decimal.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
Thanks to Hammer, Audit, and countless others for the time they put into these things! I love the nerdstat side almost as much as the games themselves
Yeah. I'll try to get them up this afternoon. Consult w/ the oral surgeon this morning so I'm a little behind. At 37 I'm about 18 years late to the wisdom tooth extraction party but apparently it's time to get them done.Quote:
Originally Posted by Gully
I'm pretty sure you realize this already, Hammerhead, but for others, please note that our #29 ranking is based on the "rating" score, which is a synthesis of the pure points and predictor methodologies. Sagarin's predictor score is a better statistical measure for expected future performance. On that scale, we rank #40. Still pretty darn good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hammerhead
For what it's worth, Massey also has us at #29, ahead of teams like Georgia Tech, OK State, Auburn, USC, Michigan, Notre Dame, etc. Computer ratings can still be a bit skewed this early in the season, but it is fun to see the Bison ranked high in these systems. It adds some legitimacy to their on the field performances and recent recognition they've been getting on the national scene.
5th ranked defense in Massey...that is awesome.
For the first time and possibly last time in my life, I will say NDSU would beat Notre Dame. Defense is down from what I was hoping, and the offense led by "Turnover Tommy" would self-destruct multiple times against the Herd. 17-10 victory for the mighty Bison.Quote:
Originally Posted by thebootfitter