Sagarin says

[stevdock]

Should have punched it in at the end for another 7

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

No reason to do that. The game was over. Although I thought Lang was going in after he got the ball for the last offensive play.

Should have gotten more points in the first half though.

[Tatanka]

So, may plan is to basically ignore the bet until he pays to be a good sport; I almost feel bad about it at this point...

wait. Were you specific? Did you make the bet for just the one game or for the past three?

[Hammersmith]

I'm working on the full write up, but I was seriously surprised when I saw them. For those that don't know, there are three different Sagarin ratings. ELO-chess is the rating that goes to the BCS for their system. Pure-points is the most accurate according to Sagarin and the one I use. Synthesis is a hybrid of the two and the one USA Today uses(as well as the layman when they refer to Sagarin numbers).

As of this morning, NDSU is 26th in the ELO-chess rating. It's the least accurate of the three ratings, but it's the one that helps create the BCS ranking.

[gumby013]

I'm working on the full write up, but I was seriously surprised when I saw them. For those that don't know, there are three different Sagarin ratings. ELO-chess is the rating that goes to the BCS for their system. Pure-points is the most accurate according to Sagarin and the one I use. Synthesis is a hybrid of the two and the one USA Today uses(as well as the layman when they refer to Sagarin numbers).

As of this morning, NDSU is 26th in the ELO-chess rating. It's the least accurate of the three ratings, but it's the one that helps create the BCS ranking.

Northern Iowa is the #2 FCS team. Possible to get another boost next week.

Also, thanks to us, K State has a loss to the top 30.

[Hammersmith]

It feels like this was the week where last year's results stopped being factored in. Sagarin used to include a line about the results being either well-connected or not, but that line has been missing this year. By the way things jumped around this week, I think the transition just happened.

Other than NDSU moving ahead of Kansas State(40 vs. 42), there's not all that much to say. The MVFC is slipping but still #1. The Big Sky and SoCon continue their fall. The Big Sky has 6 teams in the top-25, but the bottom of the conference is really dragging them down. Illinois State and Indiana State drop out of the top-25. UNI has now become our toughest FCS game after SDSU dropped a ton.

Sagarin's Week 6 Predictions:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 40	North Dakota State	76.91					
 42	Kansas State		76.63	   -3.96       3.00	 6.96		
 NA	Ferris State		   NA	      NA      46.00	   NA		
225	Delaware State		34.60	   46.55      51.00	 4.45		
131	South Dakota State	58.09	   14.58      20.00	 5.42		
 60	Northern Iowa		72.53	    8.62				
142	Missouri State		55.43	   25.72				
110	Southern Illinois	60.28	   12.39				
152	Indiana State		52.72	   19.95				
187	Illinois State		46.50	   34.65				
111	Youngstown State	60.21	   12.46				
185	South Dakota		46.90	   34.25				
							
163	Western Illinois	50.75					
						Total Diff:	16.83
	Home			4.24

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

 1   40  North Dakota State
 2   60  Northern Iowa
 3   66  Eastern Illinois
 4   75  Towson
 5   82  Villanova
 6   88  Eastern Washington
 7   89  Montana
 8   95  McNeese State
 9   98  Montana State
10   99  Georgia Southern
11  101  William & Mary
12  103  Old Dominion
13  104  Sam Houston State
14  107  Portland State
15  108  Maine
16  109  SE Louisiana
17  110  Southern Illinois
18  111  Youngstown State
19  112  Chattanooga
20  113  Central Arkansas
21  117  Cal Poly
22  125  Richmond
23  130  Harvard
24  131  South Dakota State
25  132  Northern Arizona

Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	57.16
2.  Colonial	56.04
3.  Southland	54.14
4.  Big Sky	53.74
5.  Southern	50.20

[A1pigskin]

I need a schooling on how to read these.

[Hammersmith]

I need a schooling on how to read these.

Top box: Number on far left is the predictor ranking including all 330+ DI teams. The Sagarin column is the actual predictor ranking. The predict column is what the Sagarin numbers predict the outcome of the game to be including home field advantage. The result column is what the actual score differential was. The diff column is how far off the Sagaring prediction was from the actual result. Toward the bottom is what the current home field advantage is, and the sum of the diff column.

Take the KState line. Currently, KSU is ranked 42nd of all DI teams. Their score is 76.63. Home field advantage is 4.24. NDSU is ranked 40th with a score of 76.91. Since the game was at their place, the Sagarin prediction for NDSU was 76.91 - 76.63 - 4.24 = -3.96. IOW, Sagarin predicted us to lose by just under 4 points. Since we won by 3 points, we outperformed the prediction by 6.96.

Now, these numbers change every week, so we are currently predicted to win by about 9 points but that will change when I put up a new post next Sunday. The only reason I keep some of these numbers is to show whether the team is outperforming expectations or underperforming.

Now its bisonaudit's turn to explain deviation.

[bisonaudit]

Now its bisonaudit's turn to explain deviation.

Well, I watched the premier of Showtime's "Masters of Sex" on the Audience network last night, but, somehow, I don't think that's what you meant.

[Bison bison]

Were the participants not wearing socks? Not wash their hands afterwards?

[bisonaudit]

Were the participants not wearing socks? Not wash their hands afterwards?

It was the '50's.