Sagarin says

[thebootfitter]

NDSU jumped up a bit this week to #33 in Sagarin's Rating (79.02). He has us as 5-pt favorites over ISU (assuming Frisco is considered a neutral field). Massey shows us beating ISUr 60% of the time, with a most likely score of 27-24. Those all seem in the right ballpark to me. The game could go either way, but I expect the intangibles to bring us out on top. See y'all in Frisco!

[Hammerhead]

I'd like to think that the experience of being in Frisco the previous 3 years gives the Bison an edge.

[Bison Loaf]

I'd like to think that the experience of being in Frisco the previous 3 years gives the Bison an edge.

This, and I have to also believe that the chance to be the first D1 college football team (in "modern" times, anyway) to win 4 titles in a row, is going to be a huge additional motivation. I don't think this group needs any additional motivation, but it certainly can't hurt!

[Bison03]

I'd like to think that the experience of being in Frisco the previous 3 years gives the Bison an edge.

I think this is a factor that should be considered. Much in the same way that SDSU and Coastal were not intimidated by the dome and then Sam Houston was because they hadn't been there; the newness of the title game to Illinois State will be issue. For NDSU, they know everything they are supposed to do, know the schedule and routine. Illinois State has never been to a title game before. They have a possibility of coming out with a few early jitters and taking a while to settle down. Eventually the hoopla will subside and it will be a football game. Hopefully the Bison can capitalize early and get rolling out of the gates.

[Hammersmith]

Forgot to post yesterday.

Sagarin's Championship Prediction

						
Rank 	Team		       Sagarin	  Predict    Result      Diff
 33	North Dakota State  	79.02			
 95	Iowa State          	62.57	  +13.78     +20.00	 +6.22
192	Weber State         	41.69	  +34.66     +17.00	-17.66
233	Incarnate Word      	25.25	  +56.44     +58.00	 +1.56
128	Montana             	55.52	  +26.17     +12.00	-14.17
122	Western Illinois    	56.49	  +19.86      +7.00	-12.86
109	Southern Illinois   	59.90	  +21.79     +28.00	 +6.21
 94	Indiana State       	63.18	  +18.51     +17.00	 -1.51
175	South Dakota        	45.71	  +30.64     +40.00	 +9.36
 68	South Dakota State  	68.33	  +13.36     +20.00	 +6.64
 58	Northern Iowa       	71.78	   +4.57     -20.00	-24.57
115	Missouri State      	57.91	  +18.44     +35.00	+16.56
110	Youngstown State    	59.44	  +22.25     +24.00	 +1.75
								
 68	South Dakota State  	68.33	  +13.36      +3.00	-10.36
 73	Coastal Carolina    	66.92	  +14.77      +7.00	 -7.77
 96	Sam Houston State   	62.57	  +19.12     +32.00	+12.88
 46	Illinois State      	74.10	   +4.92		
					
						Total Diff:	-27.72
	Home Field		2.67

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
Rank  SagRank  RATING   Team                     SOS  SOSRank   Conference
 1	 33	79.02	North Dakota State  	58.35	121	Missouri Valley
 2	 46	74.10	Illinois State      	58.03	124	Missouri Valley
 3	 58	71.78	Northern Iowa       	60.63	105	Missouri Valley
 4	 68	68.33	South Dakota State  	62.91	 84	Missouri Valley
 5	 71	67.34	Chattanooga         	52.20	148	Southern
 6	 73	66.92	Coastal Carolina    	46.91	181	Big South
 7	 82	65.88	New Hampshire       	48.40	174	Colonial
 8	 90	64.30	Jacksonville State  	49.06	170	Ohio Valley
 9	 92	63.22	Eastern Washington  	50.79	158	Big Sky
10	 94	63.18	Indiana State       	62.46	 92	Missouri Valley
11	 96	62.57	Sam Houston State   	53.82	142	Southland
12	101	61.32	SE Louisiana        	44.55	192	Southland
13	102	61.23	Villanova           	47.51	176	Colonial
14	105	60.82	Harvard             	36.24	227	Ivy League
15	106	60.50	Liberty             	54.38	141	Big South
16	107	60.25	Samford             	55.79	135	Southern
17	109	59.90	Southern Illinois   	61.06	102	Missouri Valley
18	110	59.44	Youngstown State    	57.00	132	Missouri Valley
19	113	58.21	Idaho State         	51.29	154	Big Sky
20	114	58.17	Fordham             	40.90	211	Patriot
21	115	57.91	Missouri State      	62.72	 88	Missouri Valley
22	122	56.49	Western Illinois    	63.65	 80	Missouri Valley
23	128	55.52	Montana             	48.56	173	Big Sky
24	129	55.02	Richmond            	48.57	172	Colonial
25	130	54.89	Charleston Southern 	50.52	163	Big South

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
ConfCat Conference 	        CMean  ConfMax	NDSU Rank
P5	SEC                 	86.07  100.02	   12
P5	PAC-12              	78.74	96.31	    8
P5	BIG 12              	78.59	96.71	    6
P5	ACC                 	74.19	85.90	    5
P5	BIG TEN             	73.80	95.94	    5
NA	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	67.62	77.01	    1
FCS	MISSOURI VALLEY     	63.38	79.02	    1
G5	MWC                 	62.66	77.43	    1
G5	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	60.49	75.19	    1
G5	CONFERENCE USA      	60.10	79.11	    2
G5	SUN BELT            	55.97	68.69	    1
G5	MAC                 	55.48	68.81	    1
FCS	BIG SOUTH           	51.29	66.92	    1
FCS	SOUTHERN            	49.38	67.34	    1
FCS	COLONIAL            	46.25	65.88	    1
FCS	SOUTHLAND           	46.16	62.57	    1
FCS	BIG SKY             	45.88	63.22	    1
FCS	OHIO VALLEY         	44.37	64.30	    1
FCS	I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	42.63	42.63	    1
FCS	PATRIOT             	42.15	58.17	    1
FCS	NORTHEAST           	40.63	50.72	    1
FCS	IVY LEAGUE          	37.34	60.82	    1
FCS	MID-EASTERN         	34.07	47.86	    1
FCS	SWAC                	29.43	48.73	    1
FCS	PIONEER             	21.66	40.97	    1

[thebootfitter]

Dang! MVFC is higher than MWC now.

[NDSU1980]

Dang! MVFC is higher than MWC now.

But FBS!!!

[westnodak93bison]

But FBS!!!

Fixed it for you

#ButtFBS

[Hammerhead]

Dang! MVFC is higher than MWC now.

MVFC is ahead of all G5 conferences! LOL

[ZHerd]

Has an FCS conference ever been ranked ahead of all G5 conferences?