Sagarin says

[SoCalBison]

Thanks, Bootfitter, for the post and extra data fields. Glad the loss didn't hurt us even worse in the power rankings.

[Hammerhead]

NDSU still top dog in the FCS according to Sagarin.

[bisonaudit]

Numbers and stuff:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/h...of-cincinnati/

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Missouri State 86.6% (-2.5% from last week)
Youngstown State 90.7% (-4.0%)

11-1 78.5% (+46.8% from last week)
10-2 20.3% (+16.2%)
9-3 1.3% (+1.1%)

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

[THEsocalledfan]

Based on Sagarin's RATING numbers (3.15 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Missouri State 86.6% (-2.5% from last week)
Youngstown State 90.7% (-4.0%)

11-1 78.5% (+46.8% from last week)
10-2 20.3% (+16.2%)
9-3 1.3% (+1.1%)

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.

So, still over 78% to likely lock up home field, but chances have clearly risen to play some games on the road.....

[thebootfitter]

Odd. The USA Today page is updated already, but Sagarin's page isn't yet (again). Both pages seem to have the data stored in the same format, but when I pull from the USA Today page into my automated formulas, it doesn't work.

Anyway, we stayed at the same rank in Sagarin's RATING system (#38), but we jumped up over a point. I'll update the stats once I can either figure out the reason for the difference or when the Sagarin page is updated.

[THEsocalledfan]

I say FCS should retire all polls and just use Sagarin. That has NDSU #1 and UNI #2. That is accurate....

[Tatanka]

I say FCS should retire all polls and just use Sagarin. That has NDSU #1 and UNI #2. That is accurate....

Careful what you wish for...

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin's Week 13 Predictions

						
						
Rank Team                Sagarin Predict Result Diff						
38	North Dakota State  	77.53				
76	Iowa State          	66.79	+7.59	+20.00	+12.41	
204	Weber State         	41.99	+32.39	+17.00	-15.39	
230	Incarnate Word      	29.82	+50.86	+58.00	+7.14	
128	Montana             	55.99	+24.69	+12.00	-12.69	
132	Western Illinois    	55.41	+18.97	+7.00	-11.97	
109	Southern Illinois   	60.86	+19.82	+28.00	+8.18	
101	Indiana State       	61.59	+19.09	+17.00	-2.09	
177	South Dakota        	47.46	+26.92	+40.00	+13.08	
74	South Dakota State  	67.43	+13.25	+20.00	+6.75	
58	Northern Iowa       	71.27	+3.11	 -20.00	-23.11	
124	Missouri State      	56.81	+17.57	+35.00	+17.43	
110	Youngstown State    	60.09	+20.59			
						
66	Illinois State      	69.69				
				Total Diff:	-0.26	
	Home Field	3.15				

Wow! Four of the top five from the MVFC!

Sagarin FCS Top-25

						
						
Rank SagRank RATING      Team                SOS SOSRank Conference						
1	38	77.53	North Dakota State  	57.07	130	Missouri Valley
2	58	71.27	Northern Iowa       	60.86	105	Missouri Valley
3	65	70.04	Jacksonville State  	51.28	158	Ohio Valley
4	66	69.69	Illinois State      	54.62	144	Missouri Valley
5	74	67.43	South Dakota State  	63.14	92	Missouri Valley
6	82	65.79	New Hampshire       	47.03	192	Colonial
7	86	65.35	Coastal Carolina    	44.24	206	Big South
8	89	64.56	Chattanooga         	50.47	167	Southern
9	90	64.51	Villanova           	48.51	181	Colonial
10	94	63.42	Harvard             	39.33	227	Ivy League
11	95	63.26	Eastern Washington  	51.10	163	Big Sky
12	98	62.17	SE Louisiana        	47.18	190	Southland
13	101	61.59	Indiana State       	62.32	100	Missouri Valley
14	103	61.48	Sam Houston State   	50.16	170	Southland
15	107	61.07	Fordham             	40.31	225	Patriot
16	109	60.86	Southern Illinois   	60.13	110	Missouri Valley
17	110	60.09	Youngstown State    	54.31	146	Missouri Valley
18	114	58.52	Eastern Illinois    	54.64	143	Ohio Valley
19	115	58.44	Samford             	49.44	176	Southern
20	118	57.80	Liberty             	50.56	166	Big South
21	122	57.05	Idaho State         	54.69	142	Big Sky
22	123	56.97	McNeese State       	50.39	168	Southland
23	124	56.81	Missouri State      	61.24	103	Missouri Valley
24	125	56.78	Richmond            	49.14	178	Colonial
25	126	56.23	James Madison       	51.28	159	Colonial

Sagarin Conference Ranking

						
						
ConfCat Conference CentralMean ConfMax NDSU Rank						
P5	SEC                 	85.02	97.76	13		
P5	BIG 12              	79.11	93.38	7		
P5	PAC-12              	78.53	92.66	8		
P5	BIG TEN             	74.72	89.47	5		
P5	ACC                 	74.34	86.77	7		
NA	I-A INDEPENDENTS    	69.07	81.53	2		
G5	MWC                 	63.75	76.18	1		
G5	AMERICAN ATHLETIC   	63.36	75.23	1		
FCS	MISSOURI VALLEY     	62.67	77.53	1		
G5	CONFERENCE USA      	59.43	79.78	2		
G5	MAC                 	57.11	66.70	1		
G5	SUN BELT            	55.27	68.35	1		
FCS	BIG SOUTH           	49.84	65.35	1		
FCS	COLONIAL            	49.62	65.79	1		
FCS	SOUTHLAND           	48.80	62.17	1		
FCS	SOUTHERN            	48.20	64.56	1		
FCS	OHIO VALLEY         	47.88	70.04	1		
FCS	BIG SKY             	47.74	63.26	1		
FCS	PATRIOT             	44.62	61.07	1		
FCS	I-AA INDEPENDENTS   	43.18	43.18	1		
FCS	IVY LEAGUE          	42.52	63.42	1		
FCS	NORTHEAST           	42.47	52.03	1		
FCS	MID-EASTERN         	36.34	50.40	1		
FCS	SWAC                	31.48	51.37	1		
FCS	PIONEER             	27.67	44.49	1		

Looks like Marshall passed us up from the Conf-USA.

[ZHerd]

4 Valley teams in Sagarin FCS top 5...wow!