Sagarin says

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 22-10 win vs. Montana did not cover the spread, and NDSU dropped for #37 to #43 in the sagarin ratings. This is the first time in a long time that NDSU did not cover the predicted spread, and lost some ground.

The Weber St. projection was 28 1/2 and the final margin was only 17.

[Herd]

Herd, I don't think we covered the spread against Weber St. Im not sure what it was but my guess is it was twice what we won by!

True about Weber, but our sagarin did not drop after that game. The Montana game was the first drop in awhile. Maybe due to it being a road game at Weber, that had less impact. Not sure.

[Hammersmith]

True about Weber, but our sagarin did not drop after that game. The Montana game was the first drop in awhile. Maybe due to it being a road game at Weber, that had less impact. Not sure.

I think the drop this week had less to do with not covering the prediction as it did a combination of other teams moving past us plus replacing last year's data with this year's. (data becoming better connected) I think we've been riding last year's wave for these first few weeks. Last year's KState win plus the overall success of FCS vs. FBS last year propelled us far higher than usual for the top FCS team. The failure of FCS vs. FBS this year I think is hurting our subdivision as a whole. But this is all guesswork as we don't know exactly how Sagarin works.

[UTH]

If that is how you see the MVFC then the Big Sky must have a lot of cupcakes!!

So... I'm guessing that the term of art to express the collective form of "cupcake" should then be "tubcake". If one were to use this word in a sentence, he would say, "The Big Sky Conference is a tubcake."

[SoCalBison]

Bison move up to 42 this week from 43 last week....although 19 in ELO.

[THEsocalledfan]

Its Hammer time! (I actually look forward to Hammer and Audit posting each Sunday!)

[Hammersmith]

Its Hammer time! (I actually look forward to Hammer and Audit posting each Sunday!)

Thanks for the reminder. Completely forgot about it this morning(darn bye week). Be back in 15.

[Hammersmith]

OVC the big loser, Southland the big winner. They swap spots in the conference rankings. Composition of the top-25 virtually unchanged(EIU out, UCA in). Top-10 virtually unchanged as well. In FBS comparisons, NDSU is back on top of all G5 conferences. The MVFC also took back the #3 ranking among non-P5 conferences. 3 of the top-5 FCS schools come from the MVFC, 7 of the top-16, 9 in the top-29, and all are in the top-48. Data must be well-connected or very close to it; very little movement. UNI game getting closer(even with home field advantage dropping half a point).


Sagarin's Week 6 Predictions

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff
 42	North Dakota State	75.93			
 67	Iowa State		70.19      +2.27     +20.00	+17.73
200	Weber State		44.19     +28.27     +17.00	-11.27
236	Incarnate Word		33.71     +45.69     +58.00	+12.31
104	Montana			61.82     +17.58     +12.00	 -5.58
171	Western Illinois	50.12     +22.34		
106	Southern Illinois	61.77     +17.63		
142	Indiana State		55.12     +24.28		
145	South Dakota		54.90     +17.56		
 69	South Dakota State	69.68      +9.72		
 80	Northern Iowa		67.23      +5.23		
102	Missouri State		62.09     +10.37		
111	Youngstown State	60.80     +18.60		
					
110	Illinois State		60.98			
						Total Diff:	+13.19
	Home Field		 3.47

Sagarin FCS Top-25

 1   42  North Dakota State
 2   69  South Dakota State
 3   74  Villanova
 4   77  Eastern Washington
 5   80  Northern Iowa
 6   85  Jacksonville State
 7   96  Coastal Carolina
 8   98  New Hampshire
 9   99  McNeese State
10  102  Missouri State
11  103  Chattanooga
12  104  Montana
13  105  SE Louisiana
14  106  Southern Illinois
15  110  Illinois State
16  111  Youngstown State
17  114  Sam Houston State
18  122  Richmond
19  123  Eastern Kentucky
20  124  Montana State
21  129  William & Mary
22  131  Harvard
23  138  Central Arkansas
24  139  Cal Poly
25  141  Princeton

Sagarin Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	61.59
2.  Colonial	52.00
3.  Southland	51.16
4.  Big Sky	51.08
5.  Ohio Valley 50.64

FBS Comparisons

#1  in the MVFC, AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt, and all the FCS
#6  in the ACC
#7  in the Big Ten
#8  in the Big 12
#10 in the PAC-12
#13 in the SEC

Non-P5 Top 10 Conferences

1.  AAC		66.05
2.  MWC		64.36
3.  MVFC	61.59
4.  C-USA	61.45
5.  MAC		58.70
6.  SBC		55.93
7.  CAA		52.00
8.  SLC 	51.16
9.  BSC		51.08
10. OVC 	50.64

[Hammerhead]

MVFC looks tough with 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10 rankings among FCS schools.

[Thundering Herd]

Let's be honest here. NDSU is a Goliath at this level.

Um....goliath lost dude.