Sagarin says

[SDbison]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (3.97 home field) and a 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:


USD 99.3% (+0.1 percentage points from last week)


11-0 99.3% (+16.6)
10-1 0.7% (-16.5)



Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86. In round numbers this means that if the spread is 14 the model predicts that roughly 2/3 of the outcomes will be between a tie and a 28 point victory. Half of the remaining outcomes or about 1/6 of all the outcomes would be a victory by more than 28 and there would be roughly a 1 in 6 chance that the team favored by 14 would lose.


Playoffs:

Sagarin gives NDSU a 60.8% chance of winning the SportsNetwork bracket.
Most likely opponents by round (assuming NDSU advances):
Montana State 52.5% (Tennessee State 47.5%)
#8 N. Arizona 79.2% (Furman 16.2%)
#5 SE Louisiana 54.4% (#4 Maine 40.1%)
#2 Eastern Illinois 68.1% (#3 E. Washington 12.5%)

I am hoping for Montana State, then Northern Arizona, and then Maine. Would be great to have Eastern Washington in final and Brock to get sweet revenge. Just blow them away!

[reformedUNDfan]

I'm fairly certain they don't factor in at all.

I believe all the sub-d1 teams are regarded as one team, 'unranked' and that is calculated as if it were a normal team.

[CAS4127]

I believe all the sub-d1 teams are regarded as one team, 'unranked' and that is calculated as if it were a normal team.

Regardless, if we had a win against MSU on our record, we would be higher in ratings right??

Even more reason to piss pound them when and if they come here for PO game. I doubt they get past UM tho.


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[bisonaudit]

Regardless, if we had a win against MSU on our record, we would be higher in ratings right??

Even more reason to piss pound them when and if they come here for PO game. I doubt they get past UM tho.


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Well, Sagarin doesn't think much of MSU so we probably would have needed to pound them.

[CAS4127]

Well, Sagarin doesn't think much of MSU so we probably would have needed to pound them.

So, would a win over them helped or hurt S rating? Just curios. That win would replace Ferris win keep in mind. Massey?!


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[bisonaudit]

So, would a win over them helped or hurt S rating? Just curios. That win would replace Ferris win keep in mind. Massey?!


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If we'd have won by like 4 TDs or so, yes.

[CAS4127]

If we'd have won by like 4 TDs or so, yes.

Wow, interesting!! What If we would have played them then rather then now. Know what I mean?!


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[CAS4127]

Wow, interesting!! What If we would have played them then rather then now. Know what I mean?!


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I'm picturing Baudit and HSmith frantically typing numbers into their puters to figure this out--could take a while, but, then again, I am not a math guy.


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[thebootfitter]

Wow, interesting!! What If we would have played them then rather then now. Know what I mean?!

Then or now wouldn't matter at all, I don't think. I'm pretty sure that Sagarin balances everything out over the entire season.

[Mayville Bison]

I find it interesting that the PAC 12 North & South have the 2nd and 3rd spots, while the SEC West & East have the 1st and 4th spots. Get tired of ESPN's proclamations of the SEC being so much better than everyone else.

I was just going to ask that same question after seeing we would be 10th in the PAC 12 and 8th in the SEC. What are the ranking of the BCS conferences out of curiousity? Part of me wants the SEC to not be represented in the National Championship game, but then everyone would just say "The computers kept the SEC out. We all know who the champ should have been."