Sagarin says

[A1pigskin]

Top box: Number on far left is the predictor ranking including all 330+ DI teams. The Sagarin column is the actual predictor ranking. The predict column is what the Sagarin numbers predict the outcome of the game to be including home field advantage. The result column is what the actual score differential was. The diff column is how far off the Sagaring prediction was from the actual result. Toward the bottom is what the current home field advantage is, and the sum of the diff column.

Take the KState line. Currently, KSU is ranked 42nd of all DI teams. Their score is 76.63. Home field advantage is 4.24. NDSU is ranked 40th with a score of 76.91. Since the game was at their place, the Sagarin prediction for NDSU was 76.91 - 76.63 - 4.24 = -3.96. IOW, Sagarin predicted us to lose by just under 4 points. Since we won by 3 points, we outperformed the prediction by 6.96.

Now, these numbers change every week, so we are currently predicted to win by about 9 points but that will change when I put up a new post next Sunday. The only reason I keep some of these numbers is to show whether the team is outperforming expectations or underperforming.

Now its bisonaudit's turn to explain deviation.

Thanks for the quick briefing. Really appreciate it.

[IzzyFlexion]

I got a pharmacist here at sanford to bet me Zenner would get over 100 yards. I think it is money in the bank. I reminded him "43 and 46."

So, may plan is to basically ignore the bet until he pays to be a good sport; I almost feel bad about it at this point...

Hell no!.

Take his cash.
You can use it to get a malaria shot during your time in Botswana.

[Hammerhead]

NDSU currently ranked #29 by Sagarin! That is ahead of 6 teams in the SEC and Pac 12 and on top of the B1G Legends division. It would also put us at the top of a few non-AQ conferences.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...13/conference/

[stevdock]

NDSU currently ranked #29 by Sagarin! That is ahead of 6 teams in the SEC and Pac 12 and on top of the B1G Legends division. It would also put us at the top of a few non-AQ conferences.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...13/conference/

Thanks for posting the link to look at all the schools rankings. It's always interesting to see who they think we are ahead of, also to see where other schools sit. Like UND only being ahead of Georgia St and Florida Int.

[Gully]

Well, I watched the premier of Showtime's "Masters of Sex" on the Audience network last night, but, somehow, I don't think that's what you meant.

Ha ha, that said, are you planning on doing your normal work on the probabilities of going 10-1 etc? I look forward to that weekly. Maybe you can get Dom to quote you on the media blog #nerdstats

[Mayville Bison]

Ha ha, that said, are you planning on doing your normal work on the probabilities of going 10-1 etc? I look forward to that weekly. Maybe you can get Dom to quote you on the media blog #nerdstats

My favorite part is the probability of going winless the rest of the year. Yes, it's statistically impossible, but I love seeing how many zeros follow the decimal.

Thanks to Hammer, Audit, and countless others for the time they put into these things! I love the nerdstat side almost as much as the games themselves

[bisonaudit]

Ha ha, that said, are you planning on doing your normal work on the probabilities of going 10-1 etc? I look forward to that weekly. Maybe you can get Dom to quote you on the media blog #nerdstats

Yeah. I'll try to get them up this afternoon. Consult w/ the oral surgeon this morning so I'm a little behind. At 37 I'm about 18 years late to the wisdom tooth extraction party but apparently it's time to get them done.

[thebootfitter]

NDSU currently ranked #29 by Sagarin! That is ahead of 6 teams in the SEC and Pac 12 and on top of the B1G Legends division. It would also put us at the top of a few non-AQ conferences.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf...13/conference/

I'm pretty sure you realize this already, Hammerhead, but for others, please note that our #29 ranking is based on the "rating" score, which is a synthesis of the pure points and predictor methodologies. Sagarin's predictor score is a better statistical measure for expected future performance. On that scale, we rank #40. Still pretty darn good.

For what it's worth, Massey also has us at #29, ahead of teams like Georgia Tech, OK State, Auburn, USC, Michigan, Notre Dame, etc. Computer ratings can still be a bit skewed this early in the season, but it is fun to see the Bison ranked high in these systems. It adds some legitimacy to their on the field performances and recent recognition they've been getting on the national scene.

[BisonFan02]

5th ranked defense in Massey...that is awesome.

[344Johnson]

I'm pretty sure you realize this already, Hammerhead, but for others, please note that our #29 ranking is based on the "rating" score, which is a synthesis of the pure points and predictor methodologies. Sagarin's predictor score is a better statistical measure for expected future performance. On that scale, we rank #40. Still pretty darn good.

For what it's worth, Massey also has us at #29, ahead of teams like Georgia Tech, OK State, Auburn, USC, Michigan, Notre Dame, etc. Computer ratings can still be a bit skewed this early in the season, but it is fun to see the Bison ranked high in these systems. It adds some legitimacy to their on the field performances and recent recognition they've been getting on the national scene.

For the first time and possibly last time in my life, I will say NDSU would beat Notre Dame. Defense is down from what I was hoping, and the offense led by "Turnover Tommy" would self-destruct multiple times against the Herd. 17-10 victory for the mighty Bison.