Sagarin says

[unbison]

I just can't quite agree with you about 10-20 I believe that to be unrealistic we didn't beat anyone in the top 25 nor did any of our direct opponents I don't thinkk

[td577]

I just can't quite agree with you about 10-20 I believe that to be unrealistic we didn't beat anyone in the top 25 nor did any of our direct opponents I don't thinkk

I agree with the unbison here. I think 35 is about right. That being said, I think this team could beat a 15-25 ranked team. This is one game once in a while. The lack of depth with the lesser number of scholarships would be very painful over the course of a season. So this exact Bison team would have a very hard time breaking the top 30 over the course of a fbs season. Now give the program the 22 extra scholarships and project the gap closes through the depth chart, and then I would say they could have been a top 25 team with an fbs schedule.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

We're better than Sagarin says. Top 25...somewhere between 10 and 20.

Not even close. I think 32 is a bit too high. Definately top 50 though. Maybe somewhere between 40-50.

[MNLonghorn10]

We're better than Sagarin says. Top 25...somewhere between 10 and 20.

[Hammersmith]

Well I suppose I might as well do this again. Sorry about forgetting about it until now. I'm sure all -5 people who follow this thread were disappointed. Remember that Sagarin is not well connected yet, so take it with a huge grain of salt. We've got a couple more weeks before he stops using data from last year. The top-4 conferences needed to be expanded to top-5 this year due to the Southland displacing the SoCon for 4th place.


Sagarin's week 4 predictions:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 50	North Dakota State	74.81			
 27	Kansas State		79.60     -10.08     + 3.00	+13.08
 NA	Ferris State	           NA	      NA     +46.00	    NA
225	Delaware State		38.55	  +41.55     
 85	South Dakota State	66.56	  + 2.96     
 86	Northern Iowa		66.50	  +13.60     
168	Missouri State		52.16	  +27.94     
103	Southern Illinois	62.89	  + 6.63     
129	Indiana State		58.92	  +10.60     
117	Illinois State		59.53	  +20.57     
121	Youngstown State	59.15	  +10.37     
179	South Dakota		48.99	  +31.11     
					
163	Western Illinois	53.08			
						Total Diff:	+13.08
	Home			 5.29

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-25

 50  North Dakota State
 80  Towson
 83  Eastern Washington
 84  Eastern Illinois
 85  South Dakota State
 86  Northern Iowa
 90  Montana
 92  Georgia Southern
100  Sam Houston State
101  Montana State
103  Southern Illinois
111  Central Arkansas
112  Richmond
114  Chattanooga
115  Villanova
117  Illinois State
118  William & Mary
120  Stony Brook
121  Youngstown State
124  Cal Poly
128  Old Dominion
129  Indiana State
130  SE Louisiana
132  McNeese State
133  Wofford

Sagarin Predictor Top-5 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	60.02
2.  Colonial	56.93
3.  Big Sky	55.65
4.  Southland	54.47
5.  Southern	54.42

How long until somebody says that I'm using the wrong Sagarin numbers this year?

[bisonaudit]

NDSU's 74.81 would rank:

4th in the American Athletic
7th in the ACC
9th in the Big Ten
8th in the Big 12
1st in Conference USA
1st in the MAC
3rd in the MWC
10th in the PAC 12
13th in the SEC
1st in the Sun Belt

[MNLonghorn10]

That's lame.

[Mayville Bison]

That's lame.

Don't worry, when KState beats Texas, we'll jump up quite a bit

[bisonaudit]

Based on Sagarin's numbers (look no further than the 5.29 home field number for evidence its early) w/ 2.61 pt kicker for coming off a bye week, here's the outlook for the remainder of the regular season:

Del St 99.9%
SDSU 58.7%
UNI 84.3%
Mo St 98.0%
S Ill 68.9%
Ind St 78.4%
Ill St 95.6%
YSU 77.9%
USD 98.9%

11-0 19.2%
10-1 38.1%
9-2 29.2%
8-3 11.1%
7-4 2.2%
6-5 0.2%
5-6 0.01%
4-7 0.0002%
3-8 0.000001%
2-9 0.000000001%

Assumes a normal distribution of outcomes w/ Sagarin's projected spread as the mean and a standard deviation of 13.86.

[missingnumber7]

NDSU's 74.81 would rank:

4th in the American Athletic
7th in the ACC
9th in the Big Ten
8th in the Big 12
1st in Conference USA
1st in the MAC
3rd in the MWC
10th in the PAC 12
13th in the SEC
1st in the Sun Belt

How does the valley as a whole compare with the sun belt