Sagarin says

[Hammersmith]

NDSU was the only MVFC team to lose points compared to last week(we under-performed vs expectations against SIU). That's why the Valley's conference score jumped three and a half points and is now closer to the bottom FBS conference than the second place FCS conference. The other three top FCS conferences are almost in a dead heat, so it's easy for the number four conference last week to become the number two this week and vice versa. As for our ranking, we dropped several spots but are still in the top-40. We've under-performed against two teams(ISUb & SIU), over-performed against two(YSU & USD), and the other four games were within a TD of the prediction. I added the 11th team to the top-10 just for fun this week. The Valley has five of the top-eleven FCS teams according to Sagarin Predictor. Big Sky has three, and Southern, Southland and Ivy each have one.

Sagarin's predictions for week 9:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 38	North Dakota State	76.79			
228	Robert Morris		33.51     +46.53     +52.00     + 5.47
134	Colorado State		57.32	  +16.22     +15.00	- 1.22
235	Prairie View A&M	28.88	  +51.16     +59.00	+ 7.84
 90	Northern Iowa		64.61	  + 8.93     +12.00	+ 3.07
115	Youngstown State	60.20	  +19.84     +41.00	+21.16
 69	Indiana State		69.41	  +10.63     - 3.00	-13.63
191	South Dakota		45.73	  +31.06     +54.00	+22.94
 95	Southern Illinois	63.39	  +16.65     + 6.00	-10.65
146	Missouri State		56.15	  +17.39		
100	South Dakota State	62.49	  +17.55		
114	Illinois State		60.52	  +13.02		
					
201	Western Illinois	41.53			
					
	Home	3.25

Sagarin FCS Predictor Top-11

 38  North Dakota State
 68  Sam Houston State
 69  Indiana State
 76  Georgia Southern
 86  Montana State
 89  Cal Poly
 90  Northern Iowa
 91  Eastern Washington
 92  Harvard
 95  Southern Illinois
100  South Dakota State

Sagarin Predictor Top-4 FCS Conferences

1.  MVFC	60.68
2.  Big Sky	55.48
3.  Southern	54.50
4.  Colonial	54.17

[Hammersmith]

On the question of top-half of Big Sky vs top half of Valley, let's be silly and use the Sag numbers to compare. (I'm bored but don't want to get out of bed yet.)

Top 5 Valley teams averaged: 67.34
Top 6.5 Big Sky teams averaged: 61.25

So... Valley wins by a little less than a TD.

How about matchups. This is a little tougher due to the different conference sizes. I'll do my best to be fair.

NDSU vs MSU-----NDSU by 11.20
ISUb vs CP-------ISUb by 4.74
ISUb vs EWU-----ISUb by 4.84
SIU vs NAU-------SIU by 2.47
UNI vs PSU-------UNI by 6.87
SDSU vs SUU-----SDSU by 6.06
SDSU vs UM------SDSU by 6.14

So... The Valley goes 7-0 in these hypothetical matchups. Granted, all but the NDSU/MSU matchup are within a TD. So, Sag says the two conferences are very close, but the edge goes to MVFC in every way.

[Bison bison]

Take that Big SKy NERdS!!!

[BisonTeacher]

I heart Sagarin!

[Bisonwinagn]

It's amazing that the predictor for the last three conf games dropped by almost 10 points. Did we get worse or did they all get better?

[Hammersmith]

It's amazing that the predictor for the last three conf games dropped by almost 10 points. Did we get worse or did they all get better?

Yes. We dropped by over 3pts, and they all raised by the rest. It worked out nicely that both this week's and last week's results are the top posts on this page and last. Just use the forward and back buttons of your browser to compare.

[Bisonguy]

Yes. We dropped by over 3pts, and they all raised by the rest. It worked out nicely that both this week's and last week's results are the top posts on this page and last. Just use the forward and back buttons of your browser to compare.

Or just open up a new window and have them side by side.

[Tatanka]

Or just open up a new window and have them side by side.

so only two more people can comment on this in order to maintain the pattern.

[td577]

so only two more people can comment on this in order to maintain the pattern.

How about two monitors and then you can go full screen on the comparisons.

[Hammerhead]

Sagarin was close for the first 4 games and then it's been all over the place since then. I wonder if that's due to our opponents or inconsistencies with the Bison.

Sagarin's predictions for week 8:

			       Sagarin	  Predict    Result	 Diff  
 31	North Dakota State	79.94			
221	Robert Morris		32.76     +49.77     +52.00     + 2.23
139	Colorado State		54.29	  +23.06     +15.00	- 8.06
234	Prairie View A&M	26.40	  +56.13     +59.00	+ 2.87
 80	Northern Iowa		66.12	  +11.23     +12.00	+ 0.77
122	Youngstown State	58.39	  +24.14     +41.00	+16.86
 90	Indiana State		64.26	  +18.27     - 3.00	-21.27
188	South Dakota		43.95	  +35.99     +54.00	+18.01
128	Southern Illinois	57.34	  +25.19		
168	Missouri State		48.64	  +28.71		
121	South Dakota State	58.99	  +23.54		
134	Illinois State		55.34	  +22.01		
					
200	Western Illinois	40.62			
					
	Home	2.59