Sagarin says

[DjKyRo]

With the expanded playoff system this year, chances are a team with fewer wins (from a power conf of course) will make it

It didn't happen last year despite the committee facing a 6-win Montana. That says a lot about the integrity of the selection committee and is a little reassuring that they're willing to adhere to the 7-win guideline.

[Strommer10]

It didn't happen last year despite the committee facing a 6-win Montana. That says a lot about the integrity of the selection committee and is a little reassuring that they're willing to adhere to the 7-win guideline.

Hopefully the committee sticks to this precedent.

[Twentysix]

With the expanded playoff system this year, chances are a team with fewer wins (from a power conf of course) will make it

????? Am i missing something? The playoffs were expanded last year, they are not this year... The 2011 playoff field is 20 teams, just like the 2010 playoff field was...?

[CarringtonBison]

????? Am i missing something? The playoffs were expanded last year, they are not this year... The 2011 playoff field is 20 teams, just like the 2010 playoff field was...?

Other than missing your left testicle, you are not missing a thing. YES, You are correct sir.

[Twentysix]

Other than missing your left testicle, you are not missing a thing. YES, You are correct sir.

That is not as reassuring as it should be. I wonder where my left testicle is off to?

[Hammersmith]

Sagarin is now well-connected and unbiased, so it no longer uses weighted info. I don't know if it was this week's events or the switch from bayesian to unbiased, but there were some real movements from week 6 to week 7. The Gophers continue their free fall and are now considered a mid-pack MVFC squad as well as being 24 spots below the nearest BCS team(Indiana). Lafayette moved up a bunch of spots thanks to their win over Yale. SIU's back to back losses dropped them 20 spots, while ISUb moved up 28 spots probably because of the switch away from bayesian. UNI and NDSU are now virtually tied for the top spot in FCS, with GSU & Furman nipping at our heels at 73 & 74(Air Force is between us at 72).

On the conference front, this week saw a tightening of the race. The SoCon dropped over a point, while the MVFC gained most of one. It's now SoCon, CAA, MVFC, BSC. (I still don't count GW as anything more than a statistical anomaly.)

Week 7

			rate   predict actual	diff
70  Northern Iowa	68.22  + 2.97  
71  North Dakota State	68.11
120 Illinois State	57.00  +14.19  +10.00   -4.19
131 Indiana State	55.29  + 9.74  
142 Minnesota		53.13  +11.90  +13.00   +2.10
135 Youngstown State	54.91  +16.28  
165 Southern Illinois	48.34  +16.69  + 6.00  -10.69
171 South Dakota State	46.04  +18.99  
181 Lafayette		43.70  +27.49  +36.00   +8.51
182 Western Illinois	43.46  +21.57  
184 Missouri State	43.13  +28.06  +30.00	+1.94
240 Saint Francis-Pa	20.58  +50.61  +53.00   +2.39

Week 6

			rate   predict actual	diff
75  Northern Iowa	67.00  + 1.44  
78  Wofford		66.35
82  North Dakota State	65.36
130 Minnesota		55.42  + 6.86  +13.00  +6.14
145 Southern Illinois	52.56  + 9.72  + 6.00  -3.72
148 Illinois State	52.36  +16.08  +10.00  -6.08
152 Youngstown State	52.10  +16.34  
159 Indiana State	50.77  +11.51  
169 South Dakota State	48.36  +13.92  
177 Western Illinois	46.38  +15.90  
183 Missouri State	44.66  +23.78  
194 Lafayette		41.68  +26.76  +36.00  +9.24
242 Saint Francis-Pa	22.33  +46.11  +53.00  +6.89

Conference

Week 7
1. GWC	55.49
2. SoCn	54.94
3. CAA	54.12
4. MVFC	53.31
5. BSC	53.24

Week 6
1. SoCn	56.07
2. GWC	55.90
3. CAA	54.71
4. BSC	54.39
5. MVFC	52.44

[Strommer10]

GWC is the #1 ranked conference

Didn't Ill St. handly beat their "#1 team" in USD?

[Tatanka]

GWC is the #1 ranked conference

Didn't Ill St. handly beat their "#1 team" in USD?

In COLLEGE FOOTBALL the W-L records include ALL games, but ONLY
games between the 246 TEAMS RATED here are used for RATING and SCHEDULE
STRENGTH computations.

Play lower division teams=inflate ratings.

[Bisonguy]

It didn't happen last year despite the committee facing a 6-win Montana. That says a lot about the integrity of the selection committee and is a little reassuring that they're willing to adhere to the 7-win guideline.

NDSU's SOS was better with the Kansas win and Montana also did not have an exclusively DI schedule which is another one of the guildelines. If NDSU would have lost at Kansas, there would have been a 6 DI win team most likely hosting a first round playoff game. I'd much rather have a 6 DI win SoCon, CAA, MVFC, or even Big Sky team than a 7 DI win Pioneer team.

[Tatanka]

Sagarin is now well-connected and unbiased, so it no longer uses weighted info. I don't know if it was this week's events or the switch from bayesian to unbiased, but there were some real movements from week 6 to week 7. The Gophers continue their free fall and are now considered a mid-pack MVFC squad as well as being 24 spots below the nearest BCS team(Indiana). Lafayette moved up a bunch of spots thanks to their win over Yale. SIU's back to back losses dropped them 20 spots, while ISUb moved up 28 spots probably because of the switch away from bayesian. UNI and NDSU are now virtually tied for the top spot in FCS, with GSU & Furman nipping at our heels at 73 & 74(Air Force is between us at 72).

On the conference front, this week saw a tightening of the race. The SoCon dropped over a point, while the MVFC gained most of one. It's now SoCon, CAA, MVFC, BSC. (I still don't count GW as anything more than a statistical anomaly.)

Week 7

            rate   predict actual    diff
70  Northern Iowa    68.22  + 2.97  
71  North Dakota State    68.11
120 Illinois State    57.00  +14.19  +10.00   -4.19
131 Indiana State    55.29  + 9.74  
142 Minnesota        53.13  +11.90  +13.00   +2.10
135 Youngstown State    54.91  +16.28  
165 Southern Illinois    48.34  +16.69  + 6.00  -10.69
171 South Dakota State    46.04  +18.99  
181 Lafayette        43.70  +27.49  +36.00   +8.51
182 Western Illinois    43.46  +21.57  
184 Missouri State    43.13  +28.06  +30.00    +1.94
240 Saint Francis-Pa    20.58  +50.61  +53.00   +2.39

Week 6

            rate   predict actual    diff
75  Northern Iowa    67.00  + 1.44  
78  Wofford        66.35
82  North Dakota State    65.36
130 Minnesota        55.42  + 6.86  +13.00  +6.14
145 Southern Illinois    52.56  + 9.72  + 6.00  -3.72
148 Illinois State    52.36  +16.08  +10.00  -6.08
152 Youngstown State    52.10  +16.34  
159 Indiana State    50.77  +11.51  
169 South Dakota State    48.36  +13.92  
177 Western Illinois    46.38  +15.90  
183 Missouri State    44.66  +23.78  
194 Lafayette        41.68  +26.76  +36.00  +9.24
242 Saint Francis-Pa    22.33  +46.11  +53.00  +6.89

Conference

Week 7
1. GWC    55.49
2. SoCn    54.94
3. CAA    54.12
4. MVFC    53.31
5. BSC    53.24

Week 6
1. SoCn    56.07
2. GWC    55.90
3. CAA    54.71
4. BSC    54.39
5. MVFC    52.44

Just looked and the numbers appear to have shifted... I see Wofford (48) and GSU (46) ahead of NDSU (63) and UNI (66).

Also the conference rankings appear to have shifted as well.

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

1 BIG 12 (A) = 82.78 82.75 ( 1) 10 82.81 ( 1)
2 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 80.48 80.94 ( 2) 12 80.42 ( 2)
3 BIG TEN (A) = 75.43 74.76 ( 3) 12 75.02 ( 3)
4 PAC-12 (A) = 74.47 74.60 ( 4) 12 74.51 ( 4)
5 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 73.35 73.39 ( 5) 12 73.33 ( 5)
6 BIG EAST (A) = 72.05 72.34 ( 6) 8 72.24 ( 6)
7 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 69.00 69.00 ( 7) 4 69.00 ( 7)
8 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 65.18 65.90 ( 8) 8 65.00 ( 8)
9 CONFERENCE USA (A) = 63.98 63.25 ( 9) 12 63.82 ( 9)
10 WESTERN ATHLETIC (A) = 62.80 62.77 ( 10) 8 62.73 ( 10)
11 MID-AMERICAN (A) = 61.45 61.71 ( 11) 13 61.63 ( 11)
12 SOUTHERN (AA)= 58.88 58.75 ( 12) 9 58.96 ( 12)
13 SUN BELT (A) = 57.31 57.33 ( 13) 9 57.40 ( 13)
14 COLONIAL (AA)= 57.06 56.60 ( 14) 11 56.72 ( 14)
15 GREAT WEST (AA)= 54.86 55.04 ( 15) 5 55.04 ( 15)
16 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 54.54 54.98 ( 16) 9 54.86 ( 16)
17 BIG SKY (AA)= 52.19 50.91 ( 17) 9 51.53 ( 17)
18 PATRIOT LEAGUE (AA)= 47.13 47.39 ( 18) 7 47.38 ( 18)
19 OHIO VALLEY (AA)= 46.01 45.41 ( 20) 9 45.50 ( 20)
20 SOUTHLAND (AA)= 45.37 45.91 ( 19) 8 45.54 ( 19)
21 I-AA INDEPENDENTS (AA)= 44.00 43.76 ( 21) 4 43.83 ( 21)
22 IVY LEAGUE (AA)= 43.57 43.65 ( 22) 8 43.63 ( 22)
23 BIG SOUTH (AA)= 39.46 39.92 ( 23) 7 39.69 ( 23)
24 MID-EASTERN (AA)= 39.16 38.11 ( 25) 11 38.72 ( 24)
25 NORTHEAST (AA)= 38.70 38.19 ( 24) 9 38.32 ( 25)
26 SOUTHWESTERN (AA)= 35.32 35.38 ( 26) 10 35.39 ( 26)
27 PIONEER (AA)= 34.61 32.94 ( 27) 10 34.00 ( 27)
28 ***UNRATED*** (**)= -90.00 -90.00 ( 28) 1 -90.00 ( 28)