2025 Sagarin Says

[MyOhMy]

Using today's ratings, we are favored by 26 points over USD at home.

Fair TBH...

[NI4NI]

Using today's ratings, we are favored by 26 points over USD at home.

And to think...a month ago this was the game that was most concerning!

[bruinbison]

Using today's ratings, we are favored by 26 points over USD at home.

Yikes!
I like that NDSU has the 2 weeks to prepare for the ‘Yotes.
And the players gotta remember losing to USD the last 2 seasons so not a team to overlook…

I also worry about teams like USD who had big losses in the Portal.
They brought in a lot of transfers, so they could be a team that has trouble gelling early in the season but improves the further into the calendar the season gets.

[18>1]

And to think...a month ago this was the game that was most concerning!

Couple of road games are the ones I’ve had circled for a while, SDSU & UN_. I think they’ll both be a challenge. We haven’t played very well in Brookings lately and the same can be said for the last 2 visits up north.

[heffray]

Couple of road games are the ones I’ve had circled for a while, SDSU & UN_. I think they’ll both be a challenge. We haven’t played very well in Brookings lately and the same can be said for the last 2 visits up north.

I am told this cannot be true, sir.

[SoCalBison]

And to think...a month ago this was the game that was most concerning!

Once a season, it seems it's the games where we're favored by 26 that cause the problems.

[Twentysix]

Top 25 this week.

42	North Dakota State   	AA	75.25	MISSOURI VALLEY
59	South Dakota State   	AA	72.63	MISSOURI VALLEY
81	Montana State        	AA	68.21	BIG SKY
84	Tarleton State       	AA	66.79	WESTERN ATHLETIC
88	Montana              	AA	65.23	BIG SKY
103	 North Dakota         	AA	62.54	MISSOURI VALLEY
111	Austin Peay          	AA	61.48	WESTERN ATHLETIC
118	Southern Illinois    	AA	59.72	MISSOURI VALLEY
121	Idaho                	AA	59.01	BIG SKY
125	Sacramento State     	AA	58.23	BIG SKY
127	Illinois State       	AA	57.96	MEAC
128	UC Davis             	AA	57.96	BIG SKY
130	Youngstown State     	AA	57.57	MISSOURI VALLEY
132	SE Louisiana         	AA	57.43	SOUTHLAND
133	South Dakota         	AA	57.36	MISSOURI VALLEY
134	Northern Arizona     	AA	56.91	BIG SKY
135	Incarnate Word       	AA	56.47	SOUTHLAND
136	Villanova            	AA	56.36	COASTAL
138	Tennessee Tech       	AA	56.19	BIG SOUTH/OVC
140	Elon                 	AA	55.75	COASTAL
141	Chattanooga          	AA	55.75	SOUTHERN
143	 Harvard              	AA	55.29	IVY LEAGUE
145	Holy Cross           	AA	55.06	PATRIOT
146	Rhode Island         	AA	55.04	COASTAL
149	Stephen F. Austin    	AA	54.71	SOUTHLAND

Tarleton still looks like they are probably #1 or #2. With NDSU in the other slot.

I genuinely think it looks like that only Tarleton and NDSU are title contenders at this point in time. SDSU and MSU have shitty offenses which will make them lose vs NDSU/Tarelton. Montana/UND are probably the 5 and 6 based on what I've seen so far this year, but I'm not sure if they are good enough to be competitive with SDSU/MSU.

Valley related: Southern Illinois looks WAY better than Illinois State. Like multiple touchdowns better.

I have my doubts about Montana State and South Dakota state tbh. Mercyhurst made it clear that Sac St isn't that good, and once again showed that Montana State's offense sucks. Drake made SDSU and USD look pretty similar, oof da.

I think the FCS has likely regressed to a 2 team race, and both MSU and SDSU have fallen backwards too far to have a real shot. And while its really neat that a new team is good (tarelton), that new team will be leaving for the FBS in a couple years."

It's also still sort of possible that NDSU isn't as good as it has seemed. But, I hope that isn't the case.

It's early, things could change, but the patterns are certainly emerging and repeating over and over.

Also, NR monmouth just dropped 51 on top ranked in the CAA villanova and won by multiple TDs.

[TAILG8R]

Not sure what to make of Tarleton St. I guess we will see if they can run through their shit schedule. Remember all those year is Sam Houston destroying their entire schedule only to get punked in the playoffs?

I agree that USD, SDSU and MSU are very suspect at this point.

We will see what NDSU becomes this year but I won’t be surprised if it’s the Bison walking through the playoffs to another natty.

I won’t believe in any team outside the MVFC until they prove it against a top 2-3 team in the playoffs. Especially southern teams.


*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*

[Professor Chaos]

Not sure what to make of Tarleton St. I guess we will see if they can run through their shit schedule. Remember all those year is Sam Houston destroying their entire schedule only to get punked in the playoffs?

I agree that USD. SDSU and MSU are very suspect at this point.

We will see what NDSU becomes this year but I won’t be surprised if it’s the Bison walking through the playoffs to another natty.

I won’t believe in any team outside the MVFC until they prove it against a top 2-3 team in the playoffs. Especially southern teams.


*Sent from my iPhone where autocorrect is definitely not my friend*

Luckily the UAC is looking surprisingly solid this year (unlike the Southland most of those years Sam Houston rammed through everyone in that league). Tarleton still has games vs West Georgia, @ Abilene Christian, and vs Austin Peay so they'll get tested. West Georgia isn't eligible for the playoffs but those other two look like FCS playoff times right now (as much as you can by mid-September at least).

[Twentysix]

Tennessee Tech and Monmouth look undervalued by sagarin at this time as well.

illinois state, sac st, idaho, all over valued imo.