2025 Sagarin Says

[bisonaudit]

100%; reason the vigs are usually higher and lines come out late. Some books also have limits on how much you can bet. (I'm low stakes so don't really ever come close.) Lakes is oui #1 expert......LOL (My favorite lakes betting story was walking into SDSU game in 2023 in Brookings and NDSU was like a +6 dog; I felt strongly very easy SDSU cover. He was all excited to bet NDSU as a dog. I made money; he did not.)

Sam Herder also had an expert on once who basically said the same you heard. Back when 5dimes was humming, they'd put out lines on Tuesday, and I made a good chunk of money hitting those early lines before they moved to reality.

As for tips, I look for Big Sky and MVFC teams playing lower FCS conference teams. Those Sagarins are always quite bit off in my experience often making the power conference team a pretty good bet paritucularly when at home and picked in upper half of their conference.

Sagarin gets way better after 4-5 weeks of play; then I move to teams who are improving/imploding.....also listen for key injuries. Lots of dogs to watch at that point for betting. Back in the glory days of the insiders, JJ was watching some no name team and said the QB went down with a brutal injury right at end of a game. Sagarin of course does not reflect and books missed it since media was next to nothing. I bet against them the next week for easy money.

I don’t know what these computer models are doing to get to their pre-season numbers but I imagine that one component is some amount of mean regression which could conceivably result in those juicy early season lines.

[Hammerhead]

Big jump in the predictor after the top 3.

46	South Dakota State  	AA	71.53	MISSOURI VALLEY
56	North Dakota State  	AA	68.29	MISSOURI VALLEY
66	Montana State       	AA	65.14	BIG SKY
94	South Dakota        	AA	58.10	MISSOURI VALLEY
95	Montana             	AA	57.76	BIG SKY
107	UC Davis            	AA	55.15	BIG SKY
112	Incarnate Word      	AA	53.48	SOUTHLAND
113	Idaho               	AA	53.26	BIG SKY
118	North Dakota        	AA	51.59	MISSOURI VALLEY
121	Southern Illinois   	AA	50.56	MISSOURI VALLEY
123	Mercer              	AA	50.22	SOUTHERN
124	Villanova           	AA	50.19	COASTAL
126	Delaware            	AA	50.16	MAC
128	Tennessee-Martin    	AA	49.62	BIG SOUTH/OVC
129	Illinois State      	AA	49.42	MISSOURI VALLEY
131	Sacramento State    	AA	49.18	BIG SKY
133	Weber State         	AA	49.12	BIG SKY
135	Chattanooga         	AA	48.96	SOUTHERN
136	Stephen F. Austin   	AA	48.95	SOUTHLAND
140	Northern Arizona    	AA	48.01	BIG SKY
142	Central Arkansas    	AA	47.97	WESTERN ATHLETIC
143	Harvard             	AA	47.80	IVY LEAGUE
144	Eastern Washington  	AA	47.79	BIG SKY
145	Holy Cross          	AA	47.76	PATRIOT
146	Tarleton State      	AA	47.59	WESTERN ATHLETIC

[Mayville Bison]

Big jump in the predictor after the top 3.

46	South Dakota State  	AA	71.53	MISSOURI VALLEY
56	North Dakota State  	AA	68.29	MISSOURI VALLEY
66	Montana State       	AA	65.14	BIG SKY
94	South Dakota        	AA	58.10	MISSOURI VALLEY
95	Montana             	AA	57.76	BIG SKY
107	UC Davis            	AA	55.15	BIG SKY
112	Incarnate Word      	AA	53.48	SOUTHLAND
113	Idaho               	AA	53.26	BIG SKY
118	North Dakota        	AA	51.59	MISSOURI VALLEY
121	Southern Illinois   	AA	50.56	MISSOURI VALLEY
123	Mercer              	AA	50.22	SOUTHERN
124	Villanova           	AA	50.19	COASTAL
126	Delaware            	AA	50.16	MAC
128	Tennessee-Martin    	AA	49.62	BIG SOUTH/OVC
129	Illinois State      	AA	49.42	MISSOURI VALLEY
131	Sacramento State    	AA	49.18	BIG SKY
133	Weber State         	AA	49.12	BIG SKY
135	Chattanooga         	AA	48.96	SOUTHERN
136	Stephen F. Austin   	AA	48.95	SOUTHLAND
140	Northern Arizona    	AA	48.01	BIG SKY
142	Central Arkansas    	AA	47.97	WESTERN ATHLETIC
143	Harvard             	AA	47.80	IVY LEAGUE
144	Eastern Washington  	AA	47.79	BIG SKY
145	Holy Cross          	AA	47.76	PATRIOT
146	Tarleton State      	AA	47.59	WESTERN ATHLETIC

Difference between 9 and 25 is exactly 4 points. This could be the year we have a semi final game include someone unexpected or not on anyone's radar to begin the season.

[NI4NI]

Nicholls looking pretty good so far.
10 - 3 over Incarnate Word in Q2

[bisonaudit]

Nicholls looking pretty good so far.
10 - 3 over Incarnate Word in Q2

All teams outside the Valley are fraudulent until proven otherwise.

[Mr Meaty]

All teams outside the Valley are fraudulent until proven otherwise.

ICW confirms your statement.

[Hammerhead]

Top 25 FCS Ratings after week zero.

46	South Dakota State   	AA	75.29	MISSOURI VALLEY
57	North Dakota State   	AA	72.05	MISSOURI VALLEY
66	Montana State        	AA	68.91	BIG SKY
93	South Dakota         	AA	61.9	MISSOURI VALLEY
95	Montana              	AA	61.55	BIG SKY
107	UC Davis             	AA	58.95	BIG SKY
112	Idaho                	AA	57.06	BIG SKY
117	North Dakota         	AA	55.39	MISSOURI VALLEY
118	Tarleton State       	AA	55.11	WESTERN ATHLETIC
121	Incarnate Word       	AA	54.68	SOUTHLAND
122	Southern Illinois    	AA	54.37	MISSOURI VALLEY
124	Mercer               	AA	54.03	SOUTHERN
125	Villanova            	AA	53.99	COASTAL
127	Delaware             	AA	53.96	CONF-USA
129	Tennessee-Martin     	AA	53.43	BIG SOUTH/OVC
130	Illinois State       	AA	53.23	MISSOURI VALLEY
132	Sacramento State     	AA	52.99	BIG SKY
134	Weber State          	AA	52.93	BIG SKY
136	Chattanooga          	AA	52.77	SOUTHERN
137	Stephen F. Austin    	AA	52.76	SOUTHLAND
141	Nicholls State       	AA	52.13	SOUTHLAND
142	NC Central           	AA	51.95	MEAC
143	Northern Arizona     	AA	51.83	BIG SKY
144	Central Arkansas     	AA	51.79	WESTERN ATHLETIC
145	Harvard              	AA	51.62	IVY LEAGUE

[TransAmBison]

Nicholls looking pretty good so far.
10 - 3 over Incarnate Word in Q2

Just watched the highlights. Teh Word looks like they need to sharpen up a bit. Good win for Nicholls.

[NI4NI]

Anxiously waiting for new Sag results.

After watching Bison game I was comfortable that they would sail through the Valley like crap through a goose. Then after watching the other I29 teams it's clear we need to play our best ball week in week out to remain on top of the mountain.

Extremely impressed with how well these teams retooled and well they are working together.

[BiZon22]

Anxiously waiting for new Sag results.

After watching Bison game I was comfortable that they would sail through the Valley like crap through a goose. Then after watching the other I29 teams it's clear we need to play our best ball week in week out to remain on top of the mountain.

Extremely impressed with how well these teams retooled and well they are working together.

Did we watch the same teams? Honestly the only team that worries me at this point happens to be the other North Dakota team. USD got absolutely destroyed, granted IA State could very well be a team competing for a semifinal or title spot at the FBS level but still they didn’t look impressive at all. And SDSU looked fine I guess. A lot of mistakes. Their offense doesn’t worry me at all though.