2025 Sagarin Says

[Hammerhead]

The preseason top 25 FBS teams according to Sagarin are:

DI    team                         FCS   CONF
46	South Dakota State   	1	MISSOURI VALLEY
56	North Dakota State   	2	MISSOURI VALLEY
66	Montana State        	3	BIG SKY
94	South Dakota         	4	MISSOURI VALLEY
95	Montana              	5	BIG SKY
107	UC Davis             	6	BIG SKY
112	Incarnate Word       	7	SOUTHLAND
113	Idaho                	8	BIG SKY
118	North Dakota         	9	MISSOURI VALLEY
121	Southern Illinois    	10	MISSOURI VALLEY
123	Mercer               	11	SOUTHERN
124	Villanova            	12	COASTAL
126	Delaware             	13	MAC
128	Tennessee-Martin     	14	BIG SOUTH/OVC
129	Illinois State       	15	MISSOURI VALLEY
131	Sacramento State     	16	BIG SKY
133	Weber State          	17	BIG SKY
135	Chattanooga          	18	SOUTHERN
136	Stephen F. Austin    	19	SOUTHLAND
140	Northern Arizona     	20	BIG SKY
142	Central Arkansas     	21	WESTERN ATHLETIC
143	Harvard              	22	IVY LEAGUE
144	Eastern Washington   	23	BIG SKY
145	Holy Cross           	24	PATRIOT
146	Tarleton State       	25	WESTERN ATHLETIC

[bstark28]

the preseason top 25 fbs teams according to sagarin are:

di    team                         fcs   conf
46	south dakota state   	1	missouri valley
56	north dakota state   	2	missouri valley
66	montana state        	3	big sky
94	south dakota         	4	missouri valley
95	montana              	5	big sky
107	uc davis             	6	big sky
112	incarnate word       	7	southland
113	idaho                	8	big sky
118	north dakota         	9	missouri valley
121	southern illinois    	10	missouri valley
123	mercer               	11	southern
124	villanova            	12	coastal
126	delaware             	13	mac
128	tennessee-martin     	14	big south/ovc
129	illinois state       	15	missouri valley
131	sacramento state     	16	big sky
133	weber state          	17	big sky
135	chattanooga          	18	southern
136	stephen f. Austin    	19	southland
140	northern arizona     	20	big sky
142	central arkansas     	21	western athletic
143	harvard              	22	ivy league
144	eastern washington   	23	big sky
145	holy cross           	24	patriot
146	tarleton state       	25	western athletic

hahahahaha......

[NI4NI]

I usually regard the Sag rating quite highly, but this displays a significant amount of 'not knowing what the hell has happened in the FCS offseason'.

[Gully]

I usually regard the Sag rating quite highly, but this displays a significant amount of 'not knowing what the hell has happened in the FCS offseason'.

You're right. It never has and was never designed to reflect that. This is always an issue early in a new season. To the extent the new environment means teams change more from season to season, the 'problem' will be worse.

[NDSU1980]

You're right. It never has and was never designed to reflect that. This is always an issue early in a new season. To the extent the new environment means teams change more from season to season, the 'problem' will be worse.

We all know they base the new numbers on last season,but what at the end of last season happened that would warrant the bunnies being ahead of us? We're national champions, they didn't even get to the final game. Massey has the same problem.

[Gully]

We all know they base the new numbers on last season,but what at the end of last season happened that would warrant the bunnies being ahead of us? We're national champions, they didn't even get to the final game. Massey has the same problem.

It takes into account many games, not just a few at the very end of the season. There isn't an exact relationship that can explain teams performance relative to one another. Heck, teams can play back to back games with different outcomes. These tools try to do the best they can to predict outcomes but you'll always be able to find examples where they are wrong and just because you beat a team the last time you played them, it doesn't (and shouldn't) mean you pass them in these types of ratings.

[THEsocalledfan]

You're right. It never has and was never designed to reflect that. This is always an issue early in a new season. To the extent the new environment means teams change more from season to season, the 'problem' will be worse.

For FCS rubes, there is probably some money to be made on these early season games if you know your crap. Opening FCS lines often largerly mimic Sagarin.

[ByeSonBusiness]

For FCS rubes, there is probably some money to be made on these early season games if you know your crap. Opening FCS lines often largerly mimic Sagarin.

A couple years ago Joe Rogan had some prominent sports bettor on his podcast. If I recall right, he said the "best" opportunities to beat Vegas is FCS football.

[THEsocalledfan]

A couple years ago Joe Rogan had some prominent sports bettor on his podcast. If I recall right, he said the "best" opportunities to beat Vegas is FCS football.

100%; reason the vigs are usually higher and lines come out late. Some books also have limits on how much you can bet. (I'm low stakes so don't really ever come close.) Lakes is oui #1 expert......LOL (My favorite lakes betting story was walking into SDSU game in 2023 in Brookings and NDSU was like a +6 dog; I felt strongly very easy SDSU cover. He was all excited to bet NDSU as a dog. I made money; he did not.)

Sam Herder also had an expert on once who basically said the same you heard. Back when 5dimes was humming, they'd put out lines on Tuesday, and I made a good chunk of money hitting those early lines before they moved to reality.

As for tips, I look for Big Sky and MVFC teams playing lower FCS conference teams. Those Sagarins are always quite bit off in my experience often making the power conference team a pretty good bet paritucularly when at home and picked in upper half of their conference.

Sagarin gets way better after 4-5 weeks of play; then I move to teams who are improving/imploding.....also listen for key injuries. Lots of dogs to watch at that point for betting. Back in the glory days of the insiders, JJ was watching some no name team and said the QB went down with a brutal injury right at end of a game. Sagarin of course does not reflect and books missed it since media was next to nothing. I bet against them the next week for easy money.

[southcliffbison]

100%; reason the vigs are usually higher and lines come out late. Some books also have limits on how much you can bet. (I'm low stakes so don't really ever come close.) Lakes is oui #1 expert......LOL (My favorite lakes betting story was walking into SDSU game in 2023 in Brookings and NDSU was like a +6 dog; I felt strongly very easy SDSU cover. He was all excited to bet NDSU as a dog. I made money; he did not.)

Sam Herder also had an expert on once who basically said the same you heard. Back when 5dimes was humming, they'd put out lines on Tuesday, and I made a good chunk of money hitting those early lines before they moved to reality.

As for tips, I look for Big Sky and MVFC teams playing lower FCS conference teams. Those Sagarins are always quite bit off in my experience often making the power conference team a pretty good bet paritucularly when at home and picked in upper half of their conference.

Sagarin gets way better after 4-5 weeks of play; then I move to teams who are improving/imploding.....also listen for key injuries. Lots of dogs to watch at that point for betting. Back in the glory days of the insiders, JJ was watching some no name team and said the QB went down with a brutal injury right at end of a game. Sagarin of course does not reflect and books missed it since media was next to nothing. I bet against them the next week for easy money.

"Ill gotten gain, ill gotten gain."